UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

[Monster Meat]

Already locked this in at -122
Silva ml
Oliveira ml

Also liking these
Bo nickel by tko/ko -122

Charles Oliveria by sub +165

Jim Miller +142

Erik anders -130

Oban Elliot and o 2.5 no line yet

 

[sonhow]

Eryk Anders hasnt looked too hot either. Guy almost got knocked out by Jaimes Pickett and won due to "panic" wrestling the entire fight. I dont think he threw a strike after, just wrestled. But of course he can beat Weidman who falls even more appart every fight. Maybe even catch him early.
Im probably playing Weidman if hes still the dog come fight night. New York and all you know.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah there's a lot of unknowns with Chandler here too. Long ass layoff and dude isn't young. I think Charles finishes within 2 rounds but it's absolutely a wild card with Chandler's power and Charles' tendency to get hit.

5 of 8 losses of Chandler was 3 rnds or higher.

Chandler tends to gas badly by then. It’s possible every now and then for him to get finished in rnds 1-2 but it’s not the norm.

I see this panning out like the Poirier fight. The 5 rounds might change the pacing for both of them.

 

[Thesnake101]

5 of 8 losses of Chandler was 3 rnds or higher.

Chandler tends to gas badly by then. It’s possible every now and then for him to get finished in rnds 1-2 but it’s not the norm.

I see this panning out like the Poirier fight. The 5 rounds might change the pacing for both of them.

Watch Chandler's 5 rounders, particularly vs Benson 1 and Eddie 1. He's a fast starter and will not pace himself if he sees an opening, now that he's older his gas tank is worse too.

 

[mkess101]

5 of 8 losses of Chandler was 3 rnds or higher.

Chandler tends to gas badly by then. It’s possible every now and then for him to get finished in rnds 1-2 but it’s not the norm.

I see this panning out like the Poirier fight. The 5 rounds might change the pacing for both of them.

Yeah I hear you on Chandler but it's more about Charles to me. He obviously hits hard at 155 since he's hurt numerous elite guys (including Chandler) and we know how big a sub threat he is. The finishing upside is so crazy high for Charles that it's hard for me to be confident that Chandler lasts more than 10 minutes.

 

[GetSomeSuga]

Have many locks and almsot 2k worth of bets. Dm me

 

[Stat_Collector]

Watch Chandler's 5 rounders, particularly vs Benson 1 and Eddie 1. He's a fast starter and will not pace himself if he sees an opening, now that he's older his gas tank is worse too.

yeah the last fight with Charles was also 5 rounds, so it may not change his game plan. i dont want him to fight slow anyways, id rather he gas himself, but it's not like he only has a round and a half of cardio, he can push a pace for 2 whole rounds at least.

Yeah I hear you on Chandler but it's more about Charles to me. He obviously hits hard at 155 since he's hurt numerous elite guys (including Chandler) and we know how big a sub threat he is. The finishing upside is so crazy high for Charles that it's hard for me to be confident that Chandler lasts more than 10 minutes.

Rematches hardly ever go identical to the first. Sometimes the loser does worst, sometimes they do better.

I would say it's unlikely we get a repeat, Chandler has a familiarity with Charles just like Izzy did when he fought Alex the 2nd time in mma. It's a dangerous fight and Charles was getting pounded in that late first. It wasn't like Charles was whipping his ass the whole fight. Chandler was winning until he wasn't, and in a flash was koed.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

 

[King-Ryan]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

I was thinking the same kind if thing... Also Bo DEC is +900 at my site. I could see him doing alot of cage pushing/lay and pray from top position.

I'm thinking something like 1U Craig ML +750, 1U Bo DEC +900, .5U Bo Rd3 +600 and a sprinkle on Craig SUB

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

So long as Bo can pass he should be fine. Craig is only dangerous from guard really.

 

[Oblivian]

So long as Bo can pass he should be fine. Craig is only dangerous from guard really.

Craig really isn't that good on the ground overall. As long as you stay way postured up in guard, you are fine. If you pass even to just half, you are set. He's just super opportunistic on triangles so you have to be careful even when trying to land a strike. Don't bring your head or upper body down with the strike. Basically pitter patter until you pass.

I'm obviously not going to play someone that favored, but I see Craig only winning this probably 1/15 times if he gets lucky snagging something or landing something big out of nowhere.

 

[StewDogg11]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

Lmao the over exaggeration is hilarious. Nickal was allegedly struggling with Woodburn yet the fight lasted 38 seconds. Keep talking yourself into throwing your money away though.

 

[sonhow]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

So you got Craig outstriking him or what? Bo going for takedown?

If Bo is smart he will just outstrike him. Theres no way Paul gets him to floor on his own.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

So you got Craig outstriking him or what? Bo going for takedown?

If Bo is smart he will just outstrike him. Theres no way Paul gets him to floor on his own.

Even if he does take him down Bo has done serious sub grappling against high level guys for a while. It's not like he's a wrestler who has no idea what he's doing on the mat.

 

[sonhow]

Even if he does take him down Bo has done serious sub grappling against high level guys for a while. It's not like he's a wrestler who has no idea what he's doing on the mat.

Yeah but if theres one position where Paul can win its on guard. Hes subbed good grapplers like Ank and Krylov there. And Hill who isnt much of a grappler but elite fighter in his wright class nevertheless

 

[Thesnake101]

So you got Craig outstriking him or what? Bo going for takedown?

If Bo is smart he will just outstrike him. Theres no way Paul gets him to floor on his own.

Imo Bo will just spam overhands until Craig dies.

 

[Spath]

Imo Bo will just spam overhands until Craig dies.

Craig is pretty hittable, so yeah.

Here’s hoping they grapple and make it exciting!

 

[sonhow]

Imo Bo will just spam overhands until Craig dies.

Same, but if hes cocky he might go for some grappling even if its dumb thing to do considering the striking of Paul.

 

[Guld]

What is the read on Martinez?

I see him being quicker on the feet and quicker throwing leg kicks, but McGhee hits harder and can hurt Martinez early.

Seems dependent rather Martinez can weather the early storm and win a dec. There is a slight risk it could end up like Davey Grant fight or getting dropped by Alejandro Perez in round one, and he got wobbled by Aldo. It has a lot of weird elements.

McGhee has only lost to a grappler up until this point. But never seen him past round 2 so cant tell if he's a gasser or not.

I favor Martinez, but I'm a bit concerned with how he might look after that last fight.
His "destroy everyone with my leg kicks" strat was shut down pretty hard when it went up against Aldo, and there is a good chance he mixes up/changes his gameplan for this next fight. Which might be a good thing, but it might take him away from what brought him such success previously.
A lot of times, when fighters go up and faces/loses to a higher caliber guy, they learn a lot from it and come out more lethal. So yeah, I think Martinez takes it, but like yourself, I am a bit worried we see a "different" Martinez this time.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I'm playing:

Jon Jones to win by KO/TKO Round 1 @ +320 > 1 unit

Jones will likely look to replicate the Gane game-plan, stay on the outside until Stipe makes a mistake then rush the clinch, takedown, look to land GnP. I don't think Stipe has as terrible sub-defense as Gane (though he did give Overeem his neck). Jones will be looking to land GnP more than sub-hunt against someone like Stipe I think. I don't think Jones wants to fight a patient slow fight and risk giving Stipe opportunities to get a rhythm and a jab working, Jones stand-up looked like slop against Gane and I just don't trust his striking at HW.

Jon Jones/Stipe under 2.5 Rounds @ -145 > 2 units

Kind of an insurance bet for the other two bets, I just don't see it being a slow-paced fight outside of the first two minutes, Jones will want to get a clinch/takedown as soon as possible or risk letting Stipe get in a groove and potentially crack him (last thing to go is power and Stipe always had a decent overhand right). If Jones does push a pace early and can't get a finish he might just be labored and hittable early, Stipe will look to go after him and could hurt him or just give Jones more opportunities to clinch and rag doll where he is best. Don't see Stipe being very durable at this stage of the game so if Jones gets top position it's likely a wrap and he'll want to use those 12-6 elbows now that they are legal.

Michael Chandler to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 @ +900 > 1 unit

I think Oliviera will most likely win by a later submission or TKO, but I can't help but love the odds here - Chandler hurts everyone he fights in the first round (including Oliviera previously), he's kind of a pure first-round fighter that goes super-agro early and then gasses and gets finished later if it doesn't work. Oliviera gets hurt against everyone with good striking in the first round (Poirer, Gaethje, Chandler, Islam - only Arman couldn't do it and his stand-up is the worst of them all). I mean this is Chandler's last shot at making a title run, he'll probably go balls out early trying to blitz Oliviera before he gets comfortable with the timing/distance, so it seems like a predictable Zerg-rush type gameplan. Feel like this should +500 or less, so worth taking a small flyer on it.

*****

Don't talk me out of these picks Sherbros!

I had Khamzhat by first round sub against Whittaker as my insurance bet until I got convinced the most likely way he would win was by KO/TKO so I switched it last minute....