UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[Thesnake101]

I could see Rowe winning, but I can't say I favor him. He's long and does present issues but Matthews has the advantage of being 4 years younger (30 vs 34) but ALSO having a ton more experience. Jake has 20 fights just in the UFC. At 30 years old. It's nuts. And he's improved his striking a lot. Was pretty competitive vs Morales who's very legit imo. Rowe is inconsistent (to be fair, Jake kinda is too). Sometimes looks good, others not at all.

Odds seem about right to me. Jake a slight favorite but Rowe very live.

Matthews starting so young could lead to him dropping off physically earlier than expected though, like Mein. Not every young guy can pull off what Holloway has in terms of longevity.

Imo Jake needs to use his BJJ to win, but he's been more and more reliant on his striking for years now. That loss to Semelsberger stands out as a particularly terrible performance in terms of Fight IQ.

 

[mkess101]

Matthews starting so young could lead to him dropping off physically earlier than expected though, like Mein. Not every young guy can pull off what Holloway has in terms of longevity.

Imo Jake needs to use his BJJ to win, but he's been more and more reliant on his striking for years now. That loss to Semelsberger stands out as a particularly terrible performance in terms of Fight IQ.

Yep that was exactly the fight I was thinking of when saying he's also inconsistent. And you're right about his body breaking down potentially with him starting so young. But probably not at 30 imo.

 

[StewDogg11]

Matthews starting so young could lead to him dropping off physically earlier than expected though, like Mein. Not every young guy can pull off what Holloway has in terms of longevity.

Imo Jake needs to use his BJJ to win, but he's been more and more reliant on his striking for years now. That loss to Semelsberger stands out as a particularly terrible performance in terms of Fight IQ.

I used to call this the Joe Stevenson problem for you old schoolers. Dude started fighting professionally when he was 16 and was effectively done before he was 30.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

I could see Rowe winning, but I can't say I favor him. He's long and does present issues but Matthews has the advantage of being 4 years younger (30 vs 34) but ALSO having a ton more experience. Jake has 20 fights just in the UFC. At 30 years old. It's nuts. And he's improved his striking a lot. Was pretty competitive vs Morales who's very legit imo. Rowe is inconsistent (to be fair, Jake kinda is too). Sometimes looks good, others not at all.

Odds seem about right to me. Jake a slight favorite but Rowe very live.

I could see Rowe winning, but I can't say I favor him. He's long and does present issues but Matthews has the advantage of being 4 years younger (30 vs 34) but ALSO having a ton more experience. Jake has 20 fights just in the UFC. At 30 years old. It's nuts. And he's improved his striking a lot. Was pretty competitive vs Morales who's very legit imo. Rowe is inconsistent (to be fair, Jake kinda is too). Sometimes looks good, others not at all.

Odds seem about right to me. Jake a slight favorite but Rowe very live.

Loss against Semelsberger is symptomatic for Matthews. Rowe can do all that much better than Sem...

 

[Thesnake101]

Loss against Semelsberger is symptomatic for Matthews. Rowe can do all that much better than Sem...

Truth be told, I'm passing. While I do think Rowe could win, and he gave Magny fits in their fight, this is still a 3-2 guy in the UFC with wins over Price (washed and chinny), Witt (extremely limited regional guy with no chin) and Cosce (busted prospect) and a loss to Gabe Green. I want to talk myself into parlaying him, but I can't.

 

[PuertoRican]

I used to call this the Joe Stevenson problem for you old schoolers. Dude started fighting professionally when he was 16 and was effectively done before he was 30.

Do you live far from Nevada?

You should come out to the next meetup in Las Vegas. I've met up with multiple Sherdoggers in Vegas over the years.

 

[mkess101]

I used to call this the Joe Stevenson problem for you old schoolers. Dude started fighting professionally when he was 16 and was effectively done before he was 30.

It can happen for sure. Lot of variables. What kind of camps has the guy done? How much weight has he been cutting all those years? What's his injury history?

Going back even farther than Joe Daddy, how about Karo Parysian? Same deal, was fighting grown men when he was 16. Karo also allegedly took shit care of his body though.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Truth be told, I'm passing. While I do think Rowe could win, and he gave Magny fits in their fight, this is still a 3-2 guy in the UFC with wins over Price (washed and chinny), Witt (extremely limited regional guy with no chin) and Cosce (busted prospect) and a loss to Gabe Green. I want to talk myself into parlaying him, but I can't.

Matthews isn't better in this way. 20 fights in UFC only notable win is Jingliang Li... but I watch this from another perspective. He lost one time against similar guy who use straight punches, long weapons, owns big power in his hands and he can reproduce that much better.

 

['Suga Daddy']

I know people are going to call me crazy but Costa decision at 12.00 I think is insane value so I've cut a slice of it. Also like Strickland decision at 3.15 (only way I think he can actually win) and Costa DNB at 2.25. Bookies seem to be really overestimating Sean's finishing ability against an absolute tank in PC

 

[Thesnake101]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795136074957590733

Figured I'd post this here for any of the people interested in Hafez/Gall.

 

[Brockstar]

I never said he was.

The CHAMPIONS (aka former champs) are all favorites when Costa in on a card

The CHALLENGERS (aka future/current champs) are all underdogs

CHAMPIONS (favorites)
Aldo, Joanna, Cody, Bisping, Stipe, DC, Usman, Volk, Islam

CHALLENGERS (underdogs)
Max, Rose, TJ, GSP, DC, Stipe, Edwards, Topuria, Poirier

What about when Costa fought for the title on PPV and lost? Doesn’t that count?

 

[Georges Hefner]

What about when Costa fought for the title on PPV and lost? Doesn’t that count?

Already answered that

 

[Georges Hefner]

After Poirier wins, I will brag for months here. I hope everyone is ready for my victory parade. Im gonna brag every single day. The bragging rights will all be mine. I’m an arrogant smug pretentious bastard. I hate being modest. Fuck being humble, that shit is so lame. I can’t wait

 

[sonhow]

After Poirier wins, I will brag for months here. I hope everyone is ready for my victory parade. Im gonna brag every single day. The bragging rights will all be mine. I’m an arrogant smug pretentious bastard. I hate being modest. Fuck being humble, that shit is so lame. I can’t wait

And I will gladly join that victory parade and sing all the praises. Its just that its not going to happen. But again Im so glad if Im wrong.

 

[Georges Hefner]

And I will gladly join that victory parade and sing all the praises. Its just that its not going to happen. But again Im so glad if Im wrong.

If Dustin loses, we riot

 

[BigSteve]

Gall is a massive bum. Im sure he has some value since Hafez makes mistakes and is a wild man. He should win this fight due to being an overall better MMA fighter.
He has more power, durability and cardio. Gall struggles to put up 15 minutes against anyone who is not a UFC washout.

Hafez had a great back-and-forth fight with Wells back in 2018 when Wells was a Gracie brown belt. He was taking his back and reversing him. Gall doesn't have that kind of physicality or grappling. He needs a rear naked choke early before he gasses otherwise I have Hafez beating him everywhere, especially on full camp.

Also massive disrespect to Evan Cutts, one of the better regionals guys out there. He has some good wins in Fury, including Brian Foster and Brahimaj from the past weekend. Hafez lost to him via split, although in the rematch he KOed him cold with one punch. If you are going to Wiki cap a fighter at least do it properly please.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

That was my fear too. Somehow she did just that and walked away a winner against Pudilova. Then turn around and did that to someone else a fight later and walked away a loser. Cruel world.

I just see no evolution with Perez, and I'm seeing some with Edwards - I just don't know if it's enough. I will say the line moves in the past day or so have been interesting.

Edwards has been taken down and controlled for the majority of a fight by three separate UFC opponents (Rosa, Clark, Pudilova). Theres no reason to believe she is going to fare any better against an opponent with better takedowns and control like Perez.

Edwards in her last fight was repeatedly swept, as in every single round, and for all intents and purposes outgrappled by a 35 year old french kickboxer. She lost the fight because she generated no offense other than the takedowns and every time the fight would enter the clinch she would eat a litany of punches, knees, and elbows; she was badly outstruck.

The only way Edwards wins is if Perez gets DQed.

 

[sonhow]

Edwards has been taken down and controlled for the majority of a fight by three separate UFC opponents (Rosa, Clark, Pudilova). Theres no reason to believe she is going to fare any better against an opponent with better takedowns and control like Perez.

Edwards in her last fight was repeatedly swept, as in every single round, and for all intents and purposes outgrappled by a 35 year old french kickboxer. She lost the fight because she generated no offense other than the takedowns and every time the fight would enter the clinch she would eat a litany of punches, knees, and elbows; she was badly outstruck.

The only way Edwards wins is if Perez gets DQed.

When wrestling with Pudilova it was Edwards who kept getting thrown on her head and absolutely dominated on top. Where as Pudilova was flying all over the cage against Perez. Mmath isnt supposed to work but in this case It would just be complete weirdness if it didnt.

 

[Stat_Collector]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1795136074957590733

Figured I'd post this here for any of the people interested in Hafez/Gall.

mma is not the same, fluffy choked out Viera. I will retract that Gall has better bjj titles.

Gall is a massive bum. Im sure he has some value since Hafez makes mistakes and is a wild man. He should win this fight due to being an overall better MMA fighter.
He has more power, durability and cardio. Gall struggles to put up 15 minutes against anyone who is not a UFC washout.

Hafez had a great back-and-forth fight with Wells back in 2018 when Wells was a Gracie brown belt. He was taking his back and reversing him. Gall doesn't have that kind of physicality or grappling. He needs a rear naked choke early before he gasses otherwise I have Hafez beating him everywhere, especially on full camp.

Also massive disrespect to Evan Cutts, one of the better regionals guys out there. He has some good wins in Fury, including Brian Foster and Brahimaj from the past weekend. Hafez lost to him via split, although in the rematch he KOed him cold with one punch. If you are going to Wiki cap a fighter at least do it properly please.

A slit decision with Ivey too, is he a regional legend too?

A decision over a 4-5 bum and a decision lost to a 1-0 guy who disappeared after.

There is a lot of things Gall does besides grappling. He has a nice right hand straight that he popped Perry with, and he wobbled and even dropped Williams who is a decent standup fighter. The Wells fight looked very 1 dimensional, it was a 2018 fight.


Im not saying Bassil is not capable of winning, but he hits red flags as a favorite, a 3 to 1 favorite at that. High chance it hits the scorecards and that alone makes it worst. Higher chance Gall hits him with a decent right straight and tags him, not really only his path to victory.

And lastly, Bassil is a gasser himself, every fight he's in he drops round 3. Ivey, JDM , Wells, he runs on gas fumes.

 

[BigSteve]

mma is not the same, fluffy choked out Viera. I will retract that Gall has better bjj titles.


A slit decision with Ivey too, is he a regional legend too?

A decision over a 4-5 bum and a decision lost to a 1-0 guy who disappeared after.

There is a lot of things Gall does besides grappling. He has a nice right hand straight that he popped Perry with, and he wobbled and even dropped Williams who is a decent standup fighter. The Wells fight looked very 1 dimensional, it was a 2018 fight.


Im not saying Bassil is not capable of winning, but he hits red flags as a favorite, a 3 to 1 favorite at that. High chance it hits the scorecards and that alone makes it worst. Higher chance Gall hits him with a decent right straight and tags him, not really only his path to victory.

And lastly, Bassil is a gasser himself, every fight he's in he drops round 3. Ivey, JDM , Wells, he runs on gas fumes.

Sure Ivy is a bum and he was getting treated like one getting dropped multiple times in round 1 and 2. Im not sure how that was a split honestly. He is on a 5 fight win streak now and was in the UFC, that seems to be your basis for Gall having a higher level of competition even though all his UFC wins are cut.

The Wells fight was in 2018, and so was Hafez his dec loss to a "1-0 guy who disappeared after". Fights in 2018 either matter or they don't. Pick one.

Williams is chinny at WW. Gall hit his path there, and that's always his path to drop someone and get a RNC. Same here although Hafez has insane durability, unlike Gal. I give
Hafez all the finishing upside.

I do agree he gets sloppy late in the fights, which shouldn't be an issue since Galls worst round is also round 3. To the point guys he should be better than in jits are mauling him on the ground ( Brown, Perry, washed Diego Sanchez )

Anyway, I'm not advocating parlaying Hafez. The way we two break down fights always leads to disagreement. I don't think Gall will ever get my money in a UFC
fight. He is one of the worst to ever do it and its a miracle he is still employed. Should be losing fights in Fury FC.

I would tackle some unders here, it covers Galls path and Hafez finish. Potentially live bet once Gall gases.