UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[Thesnake101]

he also dropped jordan williams, he wrecked him standing. and williams had that ko on robocop, a decent notch.

I honestly believe Jordan at MW was a different guy. He went the distance with Imamov there on short-notice iirc, and should've gotten the nod over Ramazan Kuramagomedov who's now gonna fight for the WW title in Bellator.

It's weird because the guy wasn't someone who was pulling massive weight cuts to fight at WW, but somehow his body still reacted worse than having no weight cut. Wonder how he'd have fared if he stuck to MW, but I guess fighting at a weight class where you cut zero weight, and sometimes even come under the limit, isn't an enticing proposition for fighters nowadays.

 

[PuertoRican]

he also dropped jordan williams, he wrecked him standing. and williams had that ko on robocop, a decent notch.

The fight against RoboCop was at 185.

The fight against Jordan Williams was at 170. Williams is well-known for being undersized at 185 due to having diabetes and his doctor suggesting that he shouldn't cut weight. After Williams dropped to 170, he got rocked and submitted by Mickey Gall and then got knocked out by Ian Garry, both were Round 1 finishes, and he retired from MMA after that.

None of the 6 guys Gall has beaten in the UFC are still in the UFC. In fact, 5 out of the 6 guys Gall beat in the UFC are now retired from MMA, with the only active guy being a Sage Northcutt who has only fought 1 MMA fight in the past 5 years.

 

[Georges Hefner]

 

[Stat_Collector]

Romonov seems like a decent play.

Got up off the floor from Juan multiple times.

Biggest concern is him getting back packed and gnp, even if the blows are not damaging, an overzealous ref like Mark Goddard will step in and won't even let him fight his way out.

 

[mkess101]

Romonov seems like a decent play.

Got up off the floor from Juan multiple times.

Biggest concern is him getting back packed and gnp, even if the blows are not damaging, an overzealous ref like Mark Goddard will step in and won't even let him fight his way out.

Can't argue with the odds. I looked at this one and biggest concern for Romanov is his gas tank. He completely crumbled vs Volkov when he couldn't dominate with offensive grappling. And Tybura took over after a round of being ragdolled when Romanov didn't finish in rd 1. Almeida went the full 25 with Lewis and even when noticeably tired still got TD's and dominated the fight. IMO maybe Romanov rd 1 is the better play. Almeida tries to grapple and a fresh Romanov stuffs him and gets his own top position and tees off? I don't remember seeing Almeida have to defend off his back, he's always been the one getting TD's and working from the top. Maybe he's a great hammer but a terrible nail?

I think Romanov's chances drop off a cliff after rd 1 based on what I've seen in reviewing their recent fights.

 

[Thesnake101]

Romonov seems like a decent play.

Got up off the floor from Juan multiple times.

Biggest concern is him getting back packed and gnp, even if the blows are not damaging, an overzealous ref like Mark Goddard will step in and won't even let him fight his way out.

Imo he's pretty much a worse version of Almeida in all aspects, including being a flake.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Can't argue with the odds. I looked at this one and biggest concern for Romanov is his gas tank. He completely crumbled vs Volkov when he couldn't dominate with offensive grappling. And Tybura took over after a round of being ragdolled when Romanov didn't finish in rd 1. Almeida went the full 25 with Lewis and even when noticeably tired still got TD's and dominated the fight. IMO maybe Romanov rd 1 is the better play. Almeida tries to grapple and a fresh Romanov stuffs him and gets his own top position and tees off? I don't remember seeing Almeida have to defend off his back, he's always been the one getting TD's and working from the top. Maybe he's a great hammer but a terrible nail?

I think Romanov's chances drop off a cliff after rd 1 based on what I've seen in reviewing their recent fights.

Yeah i hate betting on overweight guys. He's a 2 round fighter at best. Tho, Romanov got hurt by strikes and it forced him to panic wrestle, Almeida is not nearly as heavy as Volkov and doesn't carry that kind of power.

I don't see a round 1 stoppage, Romonov tends to go the distance when he faces a fellow grappler, even took him nearly 10 mins to finish Roque.

The lewis fight gives me confidence in a no sub threat imo, and i can see a scenario where Romanov can reverse or score his own td, Almeida got put on his back before in his debut in the dwcs.

I actually think Romonov being big and heavy and being able to force Almeida into grappling exchanges can tire Almeida out faster. Unlike derick lewis who just laid on his back, Romonov will rise several times and it's going to make Almeida work harder again for the takedowns as supposed to just laying on top of him. I think if Romonov just passes the getup test, he can beat Almeida with a lot of cage stalling and low volume point boxing.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah i hate betting on overweight guys. He's a 2 round fighter at best. Tho, Romanov got hurt by strikes and it forced him to panic wrestle, Almeida is not nearly as heavy as Volkov and doesn't carry that kind of power.

I don't see a round 1 stoppage, Romonov tends to go the distance when he faces a fellow grappler, even took him nearly 10 mins to finish Roque.

The lewis fight gives me confidence in a no sub threat imo, and i can see a scenario where Romanov can reverse or score his own td, Almeida got put on his back before in his debut in the dwcs.

I actually think Romonov being big and heavy and being able to force Almeida into grappling exchanges can tire Almeida out faster. Unlike derick lewis who just laid on his back, Romonov will rise several times and it's going to make Almeida work harder again for the takedowns as supposed to just laying on top of him. I think if Romonov just passes the getup test, he can beat Almeida with a lot of cage stalling and low volume point boxing.

Definitely possible. Zero chance I'd lay juice on Almeida here and there might be some value on Romanov. Seeing him gas so hard vs Tybura is hard to get out of my head though, especially because Romanov straight dominated rd 1. Almeida is smaller, but he's clearly strong for his size. Lewis has straight bench pressed a lot of guys off him and he couldn't stop Almeida's grappling. It seems like anytime Romonov is forced to work and expend any energy at all he's just cooked after like 6-7 minutes.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Imo he's pretty much a worse version of Almeida in all aspects, including being a flake.

Not really.

Romanov has far more heavy weight experience and he's rag dolled actual 260lb men before who were grapplers themselves.

Almeida's not a true heavyweight, his 3 wins are two strikers, and an old man that can grapple but is washed.

Romanov also can strike on the feet. He landed some decent strikes on Marcin and went to a draw in one judges score cards.

A factor also is that Almeida is chinny, two ground and pound losses definitely ups the stakes and makes it possible for Romonov to get a tko gnp win. All these things up his chances. Remember too Almeida isn't a wrestler by trade, Romonov was a national champion wrestler.

The only guy i saw give Romonov a challenge in grappling was a fellow wrestler Juan Espino who was decorated. There is experience you can only get on the wrestling mat.

 

[Thesnake101]

Not really.

Romanov has far more heavy weight experience and he's rag dolled actual 260lb men before who were grapplers themselves.

Almeida's not a true heavyweight, his 3 wins are two strikers, and an old man that can grapple but is washed.

Romanov also can strike on the feet. He landed some decent strikes on Marcin and went to a draw in one judges score cards.

A factor also is that Almeida is chinny, two ground and pound losses definitely ups the stakes and makes it possible for Romonov to get a tko gnp win. All these things up his chances. Remember too Almeida isn't a wrestler by trade, Romonov was a national champion wrestler.

The only guy i saw give Romonov a challenge in grappling was a fellow wrestler Juan Espino who was decorated. There is experience you can only get on the wrestling mat.

Imo what Jailton did to Curtis is above what Romanov has been able to do thus far. It was a loss, but I don't think Romanov would be able to replicate any of the success Almeida had in the first against Curtis.

Chin is the only thing that worries me here for Jailton, aside from that I don't see why he wouldn't be able to take Romanov down.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Imo what Jailton did to Curtis is above what Romanov has been able to do thus far. It was a loss, but I don't think Romanov would be able to replicate any of the success Almeida had in the first against Curtis.

Chin is the only thing that worries me here for Jailton, aside from that I don't see why he wouldn't be able to take Romanov down.

Curtis has bad knees if i remember correctly, its why he's known for his bad entries. I don't really mind if Romoniv gets taken down, so long as he tries to work his way up eventually. Even if Almeida does take round 1, id be curious to see who gasses first, or who will win the clinch exchanges. Or possibly Almeida will fade like he did against Blaydes. Because just like Blaydes Romanov will have an advantage on the feet.

Definitely possible. Zero chance I'd lay juice on Almeida here and there might be some value on Romanov. Seeing him gas so hard vs Tybura is hard to get out of my head though, especially because Romanov straight dominated rd 1. Almeida is smaller, but he's clearly strong for his size. Lewis has straight bench pressed a lot of guys off him and he couldn't stop Almeida's grappling. It seems like anytime Romonov is forced to work and expend any energy at all he's just cooked after like 6-7 minutes.

Tybura is more competent on the feet than Almeida, which allowed Tybura to force Romanov to have to use his cardio standing up.

I think that Almeida despite having a slightly better gas tank will burn more fuel in his stamina, because Romanov doesn't have to use wrestling offensively, which is more taxing. He can lay back against the cage and break apart, and then tag Almeida who is very uncomfortable on the feet.

Lewis did buckle Almeida in round 3 and put him on his back in full guard. He lost top and got reversed, this is the difference between Lewis and Romanov, he can maintain that top ctrl, he's very heavy on top and maintains it very well.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Espino is a far more experienced grappler than Almeida. And much stronger. He’s a 6x world champion in grappling.




Espino pictured here in Senegalese wrestling tournament

 

[mkess101]

Curtis has bad knees if i remember correctly, its why he's known for his bad entries. I don't really mind if Romoniv gets taken down, so long as he tries to work his way up eventually. Even if Almeida does take round 1, id be curious to see who gasses first, or who will win the clinch exchanges. Or possibly Almeida will fade like he did against Blaydes. Because just like Blaydes Romanov will have an advantage on the feet.

Tybura is more competent on the feet than Almeida, which allowed Tybura to force Romanov to have to use his cardio standing up.

I think that Almeida despite having a slightly better gas tank will burn more fuel in his stamina, because Romanov doesn't have to use wrestling offensively, which is more taxing. He can lay back against the cage and break apart, and then tag Almeida who is very uncomfortable on the feet.

Lewis did buckle Almeida in round 3 and put him on his back in full guard. He lost top and got reversed, this is the difference between Lewis and Romanov, he can maintain that top ctrl, he's very heavy on top and maintains it very well.

I think almost everyone at HW is more competent than Almeida standing LOL. Dude is about as one dimensional as is possible in 2024 for a top 10 guy.

I think Almeida's gas tank is more than "slightly better" than Romanov's from what I've seen, but this is just a 3 rounder so **maybe** it won't come into play all that much. Maybe.

Edit: also, offensive wrestling is only more taxing until you get the takedown. After that, it takes way more energy to defend and/or try to get back up. If Almeida hits early TD's, he's likely gonna sap Romanov's tank quickly with Romanov having to use explosive movements to get back to his feet etc.

 

[Thesnake101]

Espino is a far more experienced grappler than Almeida. And much stronger. He’s a 6x world champion in grappling.

View attachment 1045011

View attachment 1045013
Espino pictured here in Senegalese wrestling tournament

He's also a pretty old guy who dealt with injuries.

Besides, we're breaking down Romanov vs Almeida, not Espino vs Almeida.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think almost everyone at HW is more competent than Almeida standing LOL. Dude is about as one dimensional as is possible in 2024 for a top 10 guy.

I think Almeida's gas tank is more than "slightly better" than Romanov's from what I've seen, but this is just a 3 rounder so **maybe** it won't come into play all that much. Maybe.

Edit: also, offensive wrestling is only more taxing until you get the takedown. After that, it takes way more energy to defend and/or try to get back up. If Almeida hits early TD's, he's likely gonna sap Romanov's tank quickly with Romanov having to use explosive movements to get back to his feet etc.

that's true when the wrestler is bigger/heavier or the guy on bottom isn't a grappler and doesn't have any resistance. I dont expect Almeida to get those takedowns very easily. Even if he fast blitzes him, there will be a lot of swaying of the hips and torso to get that takedown.

Example of this is Pinedo vs Bubba Jenkins . Jenkins was so overmatched on the feet that whenever he did get top control, Pinedo coasted on the floor, got back up later and forced Bubba to go for desperate takedowns, a wrestler that cant strike is more taxing if they don't have the striking to blend their takedowns with, it makes them more predictable. And Pinedo was way bigger in size too.

Blaydes is older and not the best defensive takedowns, I expect Romanov to have more stubbornness on his tdd.

I have doubt rather Romanov will be able to getup at all. His fat body and lack of flexibility is my biggest concern, this could be one of the fights where he gets back packed the whole fight, or early premature stoppage. That is why i'm praying for him to pass the getup test.

An early stoppage by Almeida would not surprise me tho, Romanov is not as quick as Blaydes and doesn't have his explosive power and athleticism, so it's either he folds like a cheap tent, or he becomes favorable as the fight progress.

my play with Romanov is low sprinkle parlay, with a few favs i like , nothing more.

 

[Georges Hefner]

He's also a pretty old guy who dealt with injuries.

Besides, we're breaking down Romanov vs Almeida, not Espino vs Almeida.

Thats the closest stylistic matchup to Almeida.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Is it a coincidence that Islam vs Poirier takes place in Lafayette Street?

And Poirier was born in Lafayette.

 

[mkess101]

that's true when the wrestler is bigger/heavier or the guy on bottom isn't a grappler and doesn't have any resistance. I dont expect Almeida to get those takedowns very easily. Even if he fast blitzes him, there will be a lot of swaying of the hips and torso to get that takedown.

Example of this is Pinedo vs Bubba Jenkins . Jenkins was so overmatched on the feet that whenever he did get top control, Pinedo coasted on the floor, got back up later and forced Bubba to go for desperate takedowns, a wrestler that cant strike is more taxing if they don't have the striking to blend their takedowns with, it makes them more predictable. And Pinedo was way bigger in size too.

Blaydes is older and not the best defensive takedowns, I expect Romanov to have more stubbornness on his tdd.

I have doubt rather Romanov will be able to getup at all. His fat body and lack of flexibility is my biggest concern, this could be one of the fights where he gets back packed the whole fight, or early premature stoppage. That is why i'm praying for him to pass the getup test.

An early stoppage by Almeida would not surprise me tho, Romanov is not as quick as Blaydes and doesn't have his explosive power and athleticism, so it's either he folds like a cheap tent, or he becomes favorable as the fight progress.

my play with Romanov is low sprinkle parlay, with a few favs i like , nothing more.

Well I mean Almeida had no striking vs Black Beast and he hit one TD after another without much issue. Granted Lewis doesn't have great TDD. But Almeida was able to keep hitting them despite no striking threat at all. And that was for 5 full rounds. Lewis isn't a "grappler", but he's been able to just shove other guys off him easily due to brute strength and couldn't much vs Jailton.

I guess...do we know how Romanov is off his back. Saying a guy is "a grappler" is kind of generic. Some guys who are awesome on top are garbage off their back in MMA.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Well I mean Almeida had no striking vs Black Beast and he hit one TD after another without much issue. Granted Lewis doesn't have great TDD. But Almeida was able to keep hitting them despite no striking threat at all. And that was for 5 full rounds. Lewis isn't a "grappler", but he's been able to just shove other guys off him easily due to brute strength and couldn't much vs Jailton.

I guess...do we know how Romanov is off his back. Saying a guy is "a grappler" is kind of generic. Some guys who are awesome on top are garbage off their back in MMA.

im well aware, i suspect his worst aspect is off his back, his clinch and takedowns being his strongest.

I haven't made the bet official yet, maybe it's just better to pass. I feel like I may get karma for trashing Almeida last time around and then eating crow now.

You like Kopy or Cesar?

I'm wondering how much mma experience and strking with smaller gloves, younger age, will play a factor, or Almeida reveals why kickboxers beat mma kickboxers.

 

[mkess101]

im well aware, i suspect his worst aspect is off his back, his clinch and takedowns being his strongest.

I haven't made the bet official yet, maybe it's just better to pass. I feel like I may get karma for trashing Almeida last time around and then eating crow now.

You like Kopy or Cesar?

I'm wondering how much mma experience and strking with smaller gloves, younger age, will play a factor, or Almeida reveals why kickboxers beat mma kickboxers.

I like Cesar here. He's a legit world class striker regardless of gloves or anything else. And imo Kopylov isn't the guy to truly test Cesar's grappling. That was more his last fight, and while he did get controlled, he didn't panic or give anything away. Just rode out the round knowing he'd get his chance and then capitalized in rd 2.

Kopylov is solid, but Cesar is just plain a better and more dangerous striker imo in a fight that **should** be a kickboxing match.