UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[Stat_Collector]

Bassil Hafez ML is one of the safest plays on the card, imo.

I was hoping he was going to get overlooked at the betting window since he is 0-1 in the UFC and Gall has been around for awhile, but nope.

damn dude, i've never disagreed with you so much.

Gall has several gold traits of an underdog.

• More cage time with higher quality fighters in the ufc (like when Chase Hooper fought Fiere.)
• Longer reach and height.
• both fighters have inconstant records
• Hafez is a grappler and so is Gall, so no style edge
• Hafez perception of favoritism is rooted on split with Jdm , but Jdm always looks subpar with grapplers, a bad matchup.
• Hafez has been in several split wins, aka he doesn't put a stamp on his wins.
• Hafez has 1 ko win, if Gall survived Perry and Morono, he can take Hafez power
• Gall started mma martial arts at 13, Hafez at 18
• Gall has more credentials in grappling, titles.
• Hafez gassed in round 3 with Jdm, Gall did not look gassy since Sanchez fight despite being put in high pace wars with good pressure fighters.
• Hafez striking has no pressure, it's very reactionary. And while Gall is not the best either, he showed pressure applied to Morono with decent pace in round 3.
• Gall has higher rated sub wins.

I can go on more. I think Hafez was a one-off performance against Jdm, who suckered himself by banging desperately because he had to constantly worry about the grappling and threw him off his game.

I know strongly that Gall will have an easier time stuffing his takedowns, using a better outside range game, and coasting to a win with better experience.

 

[mkess101]

damn dude, i've never disagreed with you so much.

Gall has several gold traits of an underdog.

• More cage time with higher quality fighters in the ufc (like when Chase Hooper fought Fiere.)
• Longer reach and height.
• both fighters have inconstant records
• Hafez is a grappler and so is Gall, so no style edge
• Hafez perception of favoritism is rooted on split with Jdm , but Jdm always looks subpar with grapplers, a bad matchup.
• Hafez has been in several split wins, aka he doesn't put a stamp on his wins.
• Hafez has 1 ko win, if Gall survived Perry and Morono, he can take Hafez power
• Gall started mma martial arts at 13, Hafez at 18
• Gall has more credentials in grappling, titles.
• Hafez gassed in round 3 with Jdm, Gall did not look gassy since Sanchez fight despite being put in high pace wars with good pressure fighters.
• Hafez striking has no pressure, it's very reactionary. And while Gall is not the best either, he showed pressure applied to Morono with decent pace in round 3.
• Gall has higher rated sub wins.

I can go on more. I think Hafez was a one-off performance against Jdm, who suckered himself by banging desperately because he had to constantly worry about the grappling and threw him off his game.

I know strongly that Gall will have an easier time stuffing his takedowns, using a better outside range game, and coasting to a win with better experience.

I'm a Mickey Gall homer, but quite frankly his MMA wrestling sucks ass. He's a terrific bjj player in straight grappling matches but his ability to dictate where fights take place is not good. Mike Perry controlled him and won rounds via grappling (while Mickey was surprisingly effective in the standup vs Perry).

 

[PuertoRican]

damn dude, i've never disagreed with you so much.

Gall has several gold traits of an underdog.

• More cage time with higher quality fighters in the ufc (like when Chase Hooper fought Fiere.)
• Longer reach and height.
• both fighters have inconstant records
• Hafez is a grappler and so is Gall, so no style edge
• Hafez perception of favoritism is rooted on split with Jdm , but Jdm always looks subpar with grapplers, a bad matchup.
• Hafez has been in several split wins, aka he doesn't put a stamp on his wins.
• Hafez has 1 ko win, if Gall survived Perry and Morono, he can take Hafez power
• Gall started mma martial arts at 13, Hafez at 18
• Gall has more credentials in grappling, titles.
• Hafez gassed in round 3 with Jdm, Gall did not look gassy since Sanchez fight despite being put in high pace wars with good pressure fighters.
• Hafez striking has no pressure, it's very reactionary. And while Gall is not the best either, he showed pressure applied to Morono with decent pace in round 3.
• Gall has higher rated sub wins.

I can go on more. I think Hafez was a one-off performance against Jdm, who suckered himself by banging desperately because he had to constantly worry about the grappling and threw him off his game.

I know strongly that Gall will have an easier time stuffing his takedowns, using a better outside range game, and coasting to a win with better experience.

I'm not one to post long breakdowns for who I am betting, but I know Gall's MMA skill set and weaknesses very well, and I like this matchup for Hafez.

Aside from the matchup, Gall is coming back from a 2 year layoff from an injury, and the UFC cut him in 2022, only to sign him again for this PPV card in New Jersey, which is where Gall is from.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm a Mickey Gall homer, but quite frankly his MMA wrestling sucks ass. He's a terrific bjj player in straight grappling matches but his ability to dictate where fights take place is not good. Mike Perry controlled him and won rounds via grappling (while Mickey was surprisingly effective in the standup vs Perry).

Perry had the luxury of forward pressure and ko danger to keep Gall guessing and on his toes, i think your missing that context.

Second , Gall found his way up in most of those grappling exchanges. I’ve seen Hafez drop top to lesser grapplers. Gall’s not going to just pull guard and accept being on his back. I didn’t mind him getting taken down because his getup game is decent. The ctrl time in round 3 also came after perry kd him too.

I'm not one to post long breakdowns for who I am betting, but I know Gall's MMA skill set and weaknesses very well, and I like this matchup for Hafez.

Aside from the matchup, Gall is coming back from a 2 year layoff from an injury, and the UFC cut him in 2022, only to sign him again for this PPV card in New Jersey, which is where Gall is from.

2 years of ring rust is a factor to be considered, but given the low risk of finish i see Gall regaining his ability as the fight goes on to the later rounds. Its not like he’s going to get bulldozed early.

Do you consider this matchup similar to Anthony Ivey who is the same size and nearly similar but less skillful than Gall?

Cause Ivey took him to split decision. considering how bad these performances by Hafez have been in regionals, why so much confidence as a favorite?

 

[mkess101]

Perry had the luxury of forward pressure and ko danger to keep Gall guessing and on his toes, i think your missing that context.

Second , Gall found his way up in most of those grappling exchanges. I’ve seen Hafez drop top to lesser grapplers. Gall’s not going to just pull guard and accept being on his back. I didn’t mind him getting taken down because his getup game is decent. The ctrl time in round 3 also came after perry kd him too.


2 years of ring rust is a factor to be considered, but given the low risk of finish i see Gall regaining his ability as the fight goes on to the later rounds. Its not like he’s going to get bulldozed early.

Do you consider this matchup similar to Anthony Ivey who is the same size and nearly similar but less skillful than Gall?

Cause Ivey took him to split decision. considering how bad these performances by Hafez have been in regionals, why so much confidence as a favorite?

Forward pressure I don't think translates to a striker like Perry being able to control a grappler like Gall on the mat. It's because Mickey seems to have not fully gotten over his bjj roots. Rude Boy held him down for almost an entire round too.

It's not that I think Mickey can't win (his striking has actually improved a lot) but I don't know how anyone could be confident in him at this point.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Forward pressure I don't think translates to a striker like Perry being able to control a grappler like Gall on the mat. It's because Mickey seems to have not fully gotten over his bjj roots. Rude Boy held him down for almost an entire round too.

It's not that I think Mickey can't win (his striking has actually improved a lot) but I don't know how anyone could be confident in him at this point.

Perry has a wrestling base so it’s not the worst thing in the world, and it matters because it means he had to prepare a lot to keep up with his striking during training camp. The relentless pace is going to effect how a fighter feints strikes and transition to takedowns. a one dimensional grappler would have far more trouble against an mma guy if there extremely green. Almeida had this trouble with blaydes, became very predictable.

There is also a massive size difference with rudeboy and hazef , and gall reversed him and ctrl him alot in round 2

 

[mkess101]

Perry has a wrestling base so it’s not the worst thing in the world, and it matters because it means he had to prepare a lot to keep up with his striking during training camp. The relentless pace is going to effect how a fighter feints strikes and transition to takedowns. a one dimensional grappler would have far more trouble against an mma guy if there extremely green. Almeida had this trouble with blaydes, became very predictable.

There is also a massive size difference with rudeboy and hazef , and gall reversed him and ctrl him alot in round 2

I don't think Perry has a wrestling background at all does he? I'd never heard it, I don't think he ever went to college at all (which...doesn't seem shocking I guess LOL). I think his background was just boxing prior to MMA?

Brown is a bit bigger than Hazef, that's fair. And Gall did sweep him once, but again Gall is a way more accomplished grappler than people realize. Very competitive with Keenan Cornelius way back when in their NAGA match and Keenan was legit a top tier guy. Mickey's problem isn't his grappling skills at all, it's that thus far he's been inconsistent in how he's applied them to MMA. Sometimes very well, others not so much.

I almost always root for him, just kinda like his blue collar Jersey vibe. But he's got his work cut out for him here.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think Perry has a wrestling background at all does he? I'd never heard it, I don't think he ever went to college at all (which...doesn't seem shocking I guess LOL). I think his background was just boxing prior to MMA?

Brown is a bit bigger than Hazef, that's fair. And Gall did sweep him once, but again Gall is a way more accomplished grappler than people realize. Very competitive with Keenan Cornelius way back when in their NAGA match and Keenan was legit a top tier guy. Mickey's problem isn't his grappling skills at all, it's that thus far he's been inconsistent in how he's applied them to MMA. Sometimes very well, others not so much.

I almost always root for him, just kinda like his blue collar Jersey vibe. But he's got his work cut out for him here.

Hazef is a bjj guy too not a wrestler. he’s not going to put him in some daga cuffs or leg weaves like khabib against the cage. his style is to take the back and pass the guard or attack subs from the bottom.

Watch the Ivey fight and you’ll see that Ivey took his back several times and won several of the grappling exchanges. and Gall is better than Ivey.

All of Hazef fights he loses top pressure, he’s lost it with botched subs and getting wiggled out from his back takes.

The conversation should be more geared towards striking imo, i think its where Gall will edge him out.

 

[Stat_Collector]

as for perry i thought his power slams were impressive, really looked like he wrestled in high school i thought.

 

[PuertoRican]

I don't think Perry has a wrestling background at all does he?

Nope.

 

[PuertoRican]

2 years of ring rust is a factor to be considered, but given the low risk of finish i see Gall regaining his ability as the fight goes on to the later rounds. Its not like he’s going to get bulldozed early.

Do you consider this matchup similar to Anthony Ivey who is the same size and nearly similar but less skillful than Gall?

Cause Ivey took him to split decision. considering how bad these performances by Hafez have been in regionals, why so much confidence as a favorite?

I guess we'll see soon.

I don't have much on Hafez yet due to his price and because I'm waiting for the props to drop, but I did make this parlay a week ago so that I'd have some action on him.

Good luck no matter the outcome.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I guess we'll see soon.

I don't have much on Hafez yet due to his price and because I'm waiting for the props to drop, but I did make this parlay a week ago so that I'd have some action on him.

Good luck no matter the outcome.

No hating. i’ve been wrong plenty.

 

[mkess101]

Hazef is a bjj guy too not a wrestler. he’s not going to put him in some daga cuffs or leg weaves like khabib against the cage. his style is to take the back and pass the guard or attack subs from the bottom.

Watch the Ivey fight and you’ll see that Ivey took his back several times and won several of the grappling exchanges. and Gall is better than Ivey.

All of Hazef fights he loses top pressure, he’s lost it with botched subs and getting wiggled out from his back takes.

The conversation should be more geared towards striking imo, i think its where Gall will edge him out.

Agree to a point, but Hazef seems to care more than Gall about getting top position. He does take some chances he shouldn't, that's fair. The striking IDK, I'd need to watch more to get a better feel for where they both are.

 

[Thesnake101]

as for perry i thought his power slams were impressive, really looked like he wrestled in high school i thought.

Nah Perry was a boxer/brawler, that's why there was footage of him splitting his time between boxing and MMA in Island Fights. Any grappling he picked up along the way was by virtue of the UFC gym he joined.

Agree to a point, but Hazef seems to care more than Gall about getting top position. He does take some chances he shouldn't, that's fair. The striking IDK, I'd need to watch more to get a better feel for where they both are.

Personally I'm passing on the fight altogether. I don't think Bassil can justify his lines simply looking at his body of work in the regional circuit, but a Gall coming off a layoff and who was once cut makes me doubt he'll be on his A game.

Not to mention that Mickey is finish or bust most of the time, and Bassil doesn't seem like the easiest guy to finish.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Agree to a point, but Hazef seems to care more than Gall about getting top position. He does take some chances he shouldn't, that's fair. The striking IDK, I'd need to watch more to get a better feel for where they both are.

Hazef has some power, but his defense sucks, he doesn’t use head movement or blocks often, he swings hooks wildly to every counter, and in round 3 he tends to fade badly, i had Ivey winning round 3, and i believe highly he drops round 3 here to Gall. Gall even you said was able to have some success against Perry.

Nah Perry was a boxer/brawler, that's why there was footage of him splitting his time between boxing and MMA in Island Fights. Any grappling he picked up along the way was by virtue of the UFC gym he joined.

Personally I'm passing on the fight altogether. I don't think Bassil can justify his lines simply looking at his body of work in the regional circuit, but a Gall coming off a layoff and who was once cut makes me doubt he'll be on his A game.

Not to mention that Mickey is finish or bust most of the time, and Bassil doesn't seem like the easiest guy to finish.

i dont see it as finish or bust , he’s only had a few fights in his career, all of his decision losses were to good guys.

I understand the concerns but these odds of him at 235+ are crazy and unjustified as you said, i like what i’m getting.

Gall sub 3 is playable , he can submit him if he gasses hard. There isn’t a single loss on Gall’s record that is unforgivable, Mallot, Perry, Morono , Randy, are all solid or good fighters who still active today. Sanchez he was ill

can you say the same for those guys that beat Hazef?

 

[Thesnake101]

Hazef has some power, but his defense sucks, he doesn’t use head movement or blocks often, he swings hooks wildly to every counter, and in round 3 he tends to fade badly, i had Ivey winning round 3, and i believe highly he drops round 3 here to Gall. Gall even you said was able to have some success against Perry.


i dont see it as finish or bust , he’s only had a few fights in his career, all of his decision losses were to good guys.

I understand the concerns but these odds of him at 235+ are crazy and unjustified as you said, i like what i’m getting.

Gall sub 3 is playable , he can submit him if he gasses hard. There isn’t a single loss on Gall’s record that is unforgivable, Mallot, Perry, Morono , Randy, are all solid or good fighters who still active today.

can you say the same for those guys that beat Hazef?

The Sanchez fight is pretty unforgivable imo.

The problem for me is that Mickey has pretty much faltered when taking any sort of step-up since the Sage fight. Since then he's beaten 3 guys:

George Sullivan - 37yo coming off getting finished twice and had a PED suspension on his record.

Salim Touahri - Undersized BJJ guy on a skid. Very competitive fight where Mickey dropped a round, also his only decision win.

Jordan Williams - Solid regional guy who didn't put things together in the UFC in part due to, imo, cutting to WW where all but one of his losses occurred - all by finish.

Sullivan is also the only guy from that batch that has UFC wins, and they came before he got popped.

I do think Bassil is getting overrated due to the Jack fight, but what he does have going for him is that 3 of his 4 losses were splits, one of which he avenged with a finish, and Mickey is coming off getting slept for the first time which could also change his approach on the feet.

By all means Mickey's line is pretty good if you believe in him, but I don't. Truth be told, this has the makings of a sloppy fight and I'd rather not touch it.

 

[mkess101]

The Sanchez fight is pretty unforgivable imo.

The problem for me is that Mickey has pretty much faltered when taking any sort of step-up since the Sage fight. Since then he's beaten 3 guys:

George Sullivan - 37yo coming off getting finished twice and had a PED suspension on his record.

Salim Touahri - Undersized BJJ guy on a skid. Very competitive fight where Mickey dropped a round, also his only decision win.

Jordan Williams - Solid regional guy who didn't put things together in the UFC in part due to, imo, cutting to WW where all but one of his losses occurred - all by finish.

Sullivan is also the only guy from that batch that has UFC wins, and they came before he got popped.

I do think Bassil is getting overrated due to the Jack fight, but what he does have going for him is that 3 of his 4 losses were splits, one of which he avenged with a finish, and Mickey is coming off getting slept for the first time which could also change his approach on the feet.

By all means Mickey's line is pretty good if you believe in him, but I don't. Truth be told, this has the makings of a sloppy fight and I'd rather not touch it.

To be fair, Gall was literally going through liver failure for the Sanchez fight. He was in the hospital a week+ after that fight, they said he actually could've died.

 

[Thesnake101]

To be fair, Gall was literally going through liver failure for the Sanchez fight. He was in the hospital a week+ after that fight, they said he actually could've died.

Any sympathy gets negated by him trying to milk Diego's tit for sustenance mid-fight. Just a shitty thing to do.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Any sympathy gets negated by him trying to milk Diego's tit for sustenance mid-fight. Just a shitty thing to do.

lol i’ll bet a scumbag if he can make me a buck.

The Sanchez fight is pretty unforgivable imo.

The problem for me is that Mickey has pretty much faltered when taking any sort of step-up since the Sage fight. Since then he's beaten 3 guys:

George Sullivan - 37yo coming off getting finished twice and had a PED suspension on his record.

Salim Touahri - Undersized BJJ guy on a skid. Very competitive fight where Mickey dropped a round, also his only decision win.

Jordan Williams - Solid regional guy who didn't put things together in the UFC in part due to, imo, cutting to WW where all but one of his losses occurred - all by finish.

Sullivan is also the only guy from that batch that has UFC wins, and they came before he got popped.

I do think Bassil is getting overrated due to the Jack fight, but what he does have going for him is that 3 of his 4 losses were splits, one of which he avenged with a finish, and Mickey is coming off getting slept for the first time which could also change his approach on the feet.

By all means Mickey's line is pretty good if you believe in him, but I don't. Truth be told, this has the makings of a sloppy fight and I'd rather not touch it.

he also dropped jordan williams, he wrecked him standing. and williams had that ko on robocop, a decent notch.

we’ll see.

 

[mkess101]

Any sympathy gets negated by him trying to milk Diego's tit for sustenance mid-fight. Just a shitty thing to do.

Haha well again, dude might have actually been hallucinating during that fight. He legit was having a serious medical emergency while trying to fight another dude.