UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

[DalchaLungiambula]

GSP was definitely -130 when I bet it. Obviously the line could've moved, so yeah it's possible at fight time he was the dog. I'm going off my own memory of betting GSP. And I remember early in the fight feeling like an idiot as he was losing.

YOU are wrong, and Georges is right.

GSP closed a slight dog (+100).

You are using anecdotes, whilst Georges is using cold hard data, and we know what mode wins in this game.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

-900? I’ve been accused of trolling but even I never went that far. But I like the confidence.

I like the number on Poirier & Romanov.
Especially with the Costa curse and Jailton being undersized + coming too soon from KO.

Cesar has Kopylov covered in stand up and his TDD should be more than enough to keep it kickboxing range. I bet him against Budka because I liked what I saw on the DWCS.

I'm on Romanov too, but please don't take "curses" into consideration for gambling.

 

[mkess101]

YOU are wrong, and Georges is right.

GSP closed a slight dog (+100).

You are using anecdotes, whilst Georges is using cold hard data, and we know what mode wins in this game.

Like I said, GSP was favored at some point. And I acknowledged the line may have shifted the other way. That's not an anecdote, that's a fact. I made a statement, then amended it to acknowledge that he may have been right about the closing line (at least on some books). Why is that difficult to understand?

Here:

https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/georges-st-pierre-vs-michael-bisping-betting-odds

Now would be a good time to change your tone, sport.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Good move, blame me for your inaccuracy. Go win another $4000 and tell us how bright you are again. And again. And again.

Actually I'm on the worst losing streak now. 5 straight losing MMA bets. I lost $1500 this month on MMA. Lost $700 in soccer.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Like I said, GSP was favored at some point. And I acknowledged the line may have shifted the other way. That's not an anecdote, that's a fact. I made a statement, then amended it to acknowledge that he may have been right about the closing line (at least on some books). Why is that difficult to understand?

Here:

https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/georges-st-pierre-vs-michael-bisping-betting-odds

Now would be a good time to change your tone, sport.

Hes just joking. I was actually really impressed with PuertoRican’s Murphy bet. Your read was spot on as well. I was totally wrong about Murphy.

I wanted to ask is Phil Rowe a good underdog? I feel like that fight is 50/50

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Like I said, GSP was favored at some point. And I acknowledged the line may have shifted the other way. That's not an anecdote, that's a fact. I made a statement, then amended it to acknowledge that he may have been right about the closing line (at least on some books). Why is that difficult to understand?

Here:

https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/georges-st-pierre-vs-michael-bisping-betting-odds

Now would be a good time to change your tone, sport.

Someone being priced as a favorite at some point in the lead up to a fight does not mean they were the favorite.

Ultimately it is what they close at when all the money has finally been received.

You derided Georges having listed GSP as a dog, when in fact he has found us a spot to profit off of (The Paulo Costa curse).

 

[mkess101]

Someone being priced as a favorite at some point in the lead up to a fight does not mean they were the favorite.

Ultimately it is what they close at when all the money has finally been received.

You derided Georges having listed GSP as a dog, when in fact he has found us a spot to profit off of (The Paulo Costa curse).

You think I "derided" him? I pointed it out because I remembered betting GSP as a slight favorite. Which I was right about. That's all, I didn't talk shit or criticize or "deride" him at all, bud. And then when it was pointed out that the line shifted, I acknowledged it.

Also, it's not necessarily the closing line that's all that matters and you saying so shows how little you understand about how these lines work. The books could very well have taken in more money on GSP as the favorite than as the dog. Of there was a flurry of late money on Bisping that had the books shifting the line, it doesn't necessarily mean they didn't end up with more on him as the favorite.

You need to grab the shoreline here. You're swimming upstream and it's not going very well for you.

 

[Kazda1]

Anyone else think this is the right time to fade Ailin Perez?

 

[mkess101]

Hes just joking. I was actually really impressed with PuertoRican’s Murphy bet. Your read was spot on as well. I was totally wrong about Murphy.

I wanted to ask is Phil Rowe a good underdog? I feel like that fight is 50/50

I think the line is **about** right. I favor Matthews, but not by a lot.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Someone opens at -160 and closes at +100, and apparently you think on the law of averages, they are just as likely to have more money bet on them than their opponent??

Dafaq bro

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

You seemed to say it in a dismissive/ supercilious way as if he had made a fool of himself.



Anyway, I don't want any trouble here pal, we're all friends here.

We're all sharps.

 

[Thesnake101]

Anyone else think this is the right time to fade Ailin Perez?

Part of me wants to, but I could see Edwards stuck on her back for the better part of two rounds.

 

[mkess101]

Someone opens at -160 and closes at +100, and apparently you think on the law of averages, they are just as likely to have more money bet on them than their opponent??

Dafaq bro

Where did I say "as likely"? See, what you seem to not understand is that MMA is still somewhat a niche to the books. There's a fraction bet on it as compared to other major sports like soccer, football, basketball, etc. What this means is that the books aren't as quick to react with line movement because their exposure is less. There are absolutely cases where the books have moved a line but it's due to late money and it's actually the other side that they have exposure to. Sometimes by design, sometimes not.

It's not an exact science where they always move the lines perfectly to get even $ on both sides.

And anyway why does this even matter in the context of this discussion?

 

[mkess101]

You seemed to say it in a dismissive/ supercilious way as if he had made a fool of himself.

View attachment 1044773

Anyway, I don't want any trouble here pal, we're all friends here.

We're all sharps.

I wasn't deriding him. I've said I think he's a good addition to the forum.

Agree, let's not bicker.

 

[Kazda1]

Part of me wants to, but I could see Edwards stuck on her back for the better part of two rounds.

That was my fear too. Somehow she did just that and walked away a winner against Pudilova. Then turn around and did that to someone else a fight later and walked away a loser. Cruel world.

I just see no evolution with Perez, and I'm seeing some with Edwards - I just don't know if it's enough. I will say the line moves in the past day or so have been interesting.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Someone being priced as a favorite at some point in the lead up to a fight does not mean they were the favorite.

Ultimately it is what they close at when all the money has finally been received.

You derided Georges having listed GSP as a dog, when in fact he has found us a spot to profit off of (The Paulo Costa curse).

Other people know about the curse too. But I never seen anyone mention that the winners were all underdogs. I think Im the first one to notice this.

But even if GSP was favorite, he’s still the only one to win by submission. Everybody else won by KO

 

[Stat_Collector]

Third opponent for Lima on the same fight card.

he’s pretty good. His head coach is a family member of his, seems like a hidden gem fighter. Finished his last three opponents and he can wrestle decent. I just wish he had a full training camp. Probably avoid him this time, but Mitch is a good pick in the future as an undervalued dog bet. If the odds were wider , I'd play him cause Lima would have lost to Igor , he was getting controlled pretty easily.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Mickey Gall is mispriced. He's a decent wrestler , bigger , and i believe he's better on the feet, a lot more patient and better at applying pressure on the feet. Gall won round 3 against Alex Morono. And he survived some decent strikers like Mike Perry. 90% feels like a fight that will hit the scorecards, this should up the chances for a good dog bet.

 

[PuertoRican]

Anyone else think this is the right time to fade Ailin Perez?

I thnk Perez wins via being aggressive with her TD attempts.

Edwards might be able to stop the first couple of attempts, but she'll eventually go down. She also slows down and gives up Round 3, so if Edwards can keep it on the feet in R1, I'll live bet Perez when her odds improve because she'll probably win R2 and most likely win R3.

If Perez gets a TD in R1, then live betting her at a better price won't be an option.

I might bet Perez decision, but I'm worried that she might be able to win by TKO from spamming a bunch of rabbit punches, kinda like a prime version of Aspen Ladd.

 

[PuertoRican]

I think Mickey Gall is mispriced. He's a decent wrestler , bigger , and i believe he's better on the feet, a lot more patient and better at applying pressure on the feet. Gall won round 3 against Alex Morono. And he survived some decent strikers like Mike Perry. 90% feels like a fight that will hit the scorecards, this should up the chances for a good dog bet.

Bassil Hafez ML is one of the safest plays on the card, imo.

I was hoping he was going to get overlooked at the betting window since he is 0-1 in the UFC and Gall has been around for awhile, but nope.