UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

GoldenWolf87 said:
after the mess last week and all hype on Giga i will be focusing on a few favorites and more on the underdogs.

dont go chasing after favorites just because of their narrative says when you're betting them.
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what are you referring to specifically?
 
guesswhoseback said:
He gasses badly
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When has he gassed? I haven't watched the Stipe fight for a while but my memory of it was him being outclassed rather than him gassing. The only other long fight we've seen him in was BB, but nobody gassed in that one because nobody did anything.
 
BigSteve said:
Pereira/Fialho: Very juiced odds, Pereira probably wins but Fialho is dangerous enough for me to pass. He does gass in every fight and is a bit hittable, but will constantly pressure and look to counter with his boxing. Pereira has displayed a pretty good chin against some big hitters, but I can't get that Todorovic KO out of my brain. Not a fan of Pereira's finishing instincts in the UFC to hit any unders.
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I haven't had chance yet but I'll probably have a look at Fialho's KO prop. If he wins then that's likely how he does it, I imagine Pereira will approach his power the same way he approached Williams' power but he hasn't had as long to prepare for Fialho, so who knows.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Who thinks that the over 2.5rds. in the main event @+110 is a steal? Am I crazy to think this? I can't see Ngannou finishing it early because Gane is too damn disciplined, maybe when he gets into a groove later and gets lazy Ngannou can surprise him? And of course I don't expect Gane to finish this fight in any moment because it's not his style, and Ngannou is extremely hard to put away.
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Sup kyle. i wouldn't go as far to say it's a steal tbh, i did considerate playing it tho. Ngannou could finish it at any moment, he's just very explosive and has crazy wingspan, o1.5 would be better. I like gane to win but the value is all on big frank atm. The bet i like the most fot this card is the o3.5 for fig vs moreno. first fight went 5, last one went 3, figueiredo training at fight ready (cejudo saying "he's not a killer, he's a calculated killer") and looking in great shape for this one (just 10 lbs left to cut like 3 days ago) have me thinking this dude is trained for WAR. I expect him to come out with a romero-esque style, but not as lackadaisycal as last time. he'll try to pick his shots and maybe grapple (which would only extend the fight)? Moreno being a volume and cardio machine is a given, they both eat shots well. conditioning is key. o2.5 would be a steal but the 3.5 i'm happy about too. i personally think it hits the scorecards but a late finish is in play, hope it comes in the 5th or i'll be bitting my nails lmao.
 
Spath said:
@Guld you mentioned that Ngannou’s game has holes and Gane would be taking advantage of them. What are these holes?

I hope it’s not the ”Ngannou drops his left hand when throwing the right”
<{1-17}>
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Rozenstruik = closes his eyes and windmills his punches. It happened to luck out against Rozenstruik, but even in that exchange he almost payed for it. I think Gane has the proper size/power/technique to make him legitimately pay. Hell, I have a sneaky suspicion with the recent bulk up of Gane that he'll likely bait something like that just so he can shoot a double.

Stipe II = Gets tagged on the chin pretty cleanly by Stipe (who was almost refusing to throw strikes that fight for some silly reason). Additionally, when Ngannou did have a good moment of grappling (stuffed the takedowns and got one of his own) he was immediately gassed. He legitimately needed the rest of the round (a few minutes if I remember correctly) to recover. Again, he didn't pay for it because Stipe was in "refusal to fight" mode, but if that happens with Gane he likely pays hard.
 
Guld said:
Stipe II = Gets tagged on the chin pretty cleanly by Stipe (who was almost refusing to throw strikes that fight for some silly reason). Additionally, when Ngannou did have a good moment of grappling (stuffed the takedowns and got one of his own) he was immediately gassed. He legitimately needed the rest of the round (a few minutes if I remember correctly) to recover. Again, he didn't pay for it because Stipe was in "refusal to fight" mode, but if that happens with Gane he likely pays hard.
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I wouldn't say he did nothing off that TD he got on Stipe, he did give him so pretty nice GNP. It's hard to say if his TDD improved off of 1 stuffed TD. Everyone was patting Ngannou on the back, his TDD is so improved but it was 1 stuffed TD against a Stipe he had 30 pounds on. 265 to 235 if I remember correctly. I did think he got rocked a tad on that shot from Stipe where Stipe then decided to rush right into that left hook then it was lights out. You won't see Gane making that mistake IMO. I am on team Gane but I can't write off Ngannou and how dangerous he is.
 
TheLastOlympian07 said:
I wouldn't say he did nothing off that TD he got on Stipe, he did give him so pretty nice GNP. It's hard to say if his TDD improved off of 1 stuffed TD. Everyone was patting Ngannou on the back, his TDD is so improved but it was 1 stuffed TD against a Stipe he had 30 pounds on. 265 to 235 if I remember correctly. I did think he got rocked a tad on that shot from Stipe where Stipe then decided to rush right into that left hook then it was lights out. You won't see Gane making that mistake IMO. I am on team Gane but I can't write off Ngannou and how dangerous he is.
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Agreed on all points. The reversal of the TD was decent, and the GNP was also solid, but the second that sequence ended Francis was breathing REALLY heavy. He was lucky that he was in there with a gunshy/shot Stipe, because a Cormier, Lewis, Gane, etc. would not be so accommodating.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
When has he gassed? I haven't watched the Stipe fight for a while but my memory of it was him being outclassed rather than him gassing. The only other long fight we've seen him in was BB, but nobody gassed in that one because nobody did anything.
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You should probably rewatch it then before asserting that he did not fatigue because he did and it was bad.

Francis landed two significant strikes over the last three rounds of his first fight with Stipe.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
You should probably rewatch it then before asserting that he did not fatigue because he did and it was bad.

Francis landed two significant strikes over the last three rounds of his first fight with Stipe.
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He did, but he also threw a ton of huge power shots early on iirc. Stipe managed to avoid them plus made Francis defend grappling which led to the gassing.

I tend to doubt Francis comes out winging huge power shots right out of the gate. It's possible (he went ballistic immediately vs Rozenstruik obviously) but I imagine he feels that he will carry his power longer into the fight if he conserves some energy (even if he's losing rounds). He seems to be very durable (we don't have a full picture on that but with the info we have I'd say it appears that way at least) so I think we may see his strategy be to "play possum" a little? In other words, understand he may get outpointed early on and take a little damage but if lulls Gane into thinking he's going to coast and then blitzes him a bit later (rd 3 or 4) he can catch him off guard and land that one killshot.

Keep in mind, I think Gane wins this fight. I like his skills to win out over Francis power. I'm just presenting a view as to one way Francis may approach the fight to avoid gassing but to remain dangerous.
 
every event whenever I am "Taping fights" I write down how I think each fighter will win if they do win and if any of the odds are more then +400 I usually alwalys throw a little something on that right before the fight starts like why the hell not. Its usually like 5$ or 10 nothing big

Olivieria-Sub +465
Jourdain-KO+965
Henry-Sub+1550
Turman-Dec+950
Fialho-KO +400
Figueirdio-Sub+975
 
Looking at Valdez last fight he seemed to gas hard after the first round. 2nd round he got what seems like a lucky punch and finished his opponent. Against Frevola, If he gasses the same way he did after round 1, I see Frevola finishing him in round 2.
 
I know BigSteve referenced it earlier, but man Moreno vs Fig is really giving me flashbacks to Edgar vs Penn.
The first fight showed who had the better overall skillset even though it was a close fight.
The next fight solidified who the better fighter was.
The third fight the old guy is trying new camp/style/weightcut/tippy toe stance/etc., but the result is even more in favor of the young champ in their prime.
 
Flexstyle said:
Looking at Valdez last fight he seemed to gas hard after the first round. 2nd round he got what seems like a lucky punch and finished his opponent. Against Frevola, If he gasses the same way he did after round 1, I see Frevola finishing him in round 2.
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Hard to hold that Patrik White against his gas tank that was a crazy all out first round by both fighters. I can't deny you are right he did gas but there's different types of gassing i'd be worried about, if he just gassed while not being pressured, gassing by being offensive without much resistance etc
 
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