taped the rest of the card:
Topuria/Jordain: Talk about insane odds. Don't like anything here, maybe a tiny sprinkle on Jordain by KO due to majority of his wins coming by that method. It probably ends in a finish but I'm not confident enough to lay the chalk. I remember people having cardio questions about him when he fought Zelal, he kind of answered some of those questions but let's see him go deep in a fight a few more times before lining him like Shevchenko. He was also dropped in his last fight before UFC, and regardless of all his flaws, Jordain is always dangerous. He most likely gets Anaconda choked here though.
Morales/Giles: I have fond memories of taping Morales. Hit him as a 3.00+ dog on contender, only 0.25u because of the lvl of competition, age, first fight in the USA, and his opponent's physicality. He answered a lot of questions in that fight against his toughest opponent and showed some new wrinkles in his game. Taping him again I noticed how composed he is, even back when he was 19 years of age. Patient striker, he doesn't rush in even when he hurts someone which is very rare that early. Good power, long reach and he can fight backward. He does have his hands low when he backs up and he ate a ton of shots because of that in his last fight. It diid not seem to faze him at all though. I think he was surprised that someone was finally making him pay for that at a high rate, but he adapted and changed up his style to win. He started throwing bombs and brawling and even wrestled. Giles has very fast hands, and a slick jab, especially early. He is also dropping down to WW which I have some questions about. I wish Morales had better odds, this is another contender series fav making his debut and they haven't been doing good so far. The problem is I will never bet Giles, he is on my shit list along with Anders, so atm it's favorite or pass. Giles is giving up 5 inches of reach, and Morales fights long but I'm a lil nervous about his defense early. There is also questions about what happens if Giles actively grapples. At this stage I will probably live bet it, it was amazing for me last week and saved me from a few pre-fight picks that tanked.
Viera/Turman: Only full unit bet on this card is over 1.5 here. Also, have the tiniest sprinkle on Turman. Viera was a lot more patient in his last fight and had improved striking fundamentals and footwork. I don't see him going back to his old ways after what happened in the Fluffy fight. Viera is 2-2 with his fights going over or under in the UFC so far, with the Fluffy fight also being 40 seconds away from hitting. Stolzfus in my opinion is bottom of the barrel and a purple belt, and he still survived till the third. It was 1-1 going into the third, and Viera was still doing flaky despite his improvements. I don't overly trust Turman, he seems like a meathead that always has the same gameplan and low IQ. But these kinds of odds against a gassy flake, I have to sprinkle out of principle even though I don't have the best read.
Pereira/Fialho: Very juiced odds, Pereira probably wins but Fialho is dangerous enough for me to pass. He does gass in every fight and is a bit hittable, but will constantly pressure and look to counter with his boxing. Pereira has displayed a pretty good chin against some big hitters, but I can't get that Todorovic KO out of my brain. Not a fan of Pereira's finishing instincts in the UFC to hit any unders.
Said/Stamann: This fight could be a lot closer than the odds. Stamann is a good striker and he has great defense but has no power so needs to put stamps on rounds with his wrestling, which is solid. The problem is Said is the longer more explosive striker and he mixes it up well. I tried looking into Said's grappling, Bibulatov grappled fucked him but it was 7 years ago and at FLW. He showed some horrendous cardio there as well. Recently he lost a very competitive but clear dec to Barcelos, who would punish all his missed spinning back kicks with back takes. He does this a lot and a few fighters have taken advantage. He does have decent wrestling himself and strong balance and hips, Barcelos was only able to consolidate a takedown in the third once Said seemed to slow down a bit. Stamanns best path is to pressure, crowd the kicks and just look to grapple for three. He is very durable and capable of taking it to DEC. I have a sneaky suspicion Said could slow down quite a bit from that gameplan but it's speculation based on lil tape. Im passing due to Stamann not having the best control, slowing down himself and probably getting chewed up at a distance whenever he doesn't wrestle.
Moreno/Figgy: I was felt like I was going to hit Moreno at these odds pre-tape. Had this feeling that this matchup is one of those trilogies where one fighter has the other guy's number. Kinda like Edgar/Penn and to a smaller extent Stipe/DC. Figgy has always had some problems when he doesn't finish his opponent, even all the way back to the Brooks fight which I thought he lost. Formiga shut him out, the first Moreno fight was a war and the second Moreno finished him. He was impressive against Pantoja for all 3 so have to give him that. Moreno has great durability, I don't see him finished by even someone like Figgy. Also has great cardio, fast hands and good wrestling which he used against Figgy both times. Figgy is inconsistent, every now and then he will come out looking off, and other times he will come out like a killer. I think the disciplined approach would be to wait and see how he looks in round 1. He is now training with Cejudo which I try not to let me influence too much, but can't ignore the fact that he might have better wrestling. If Moreno wins the first and looks good, I don't mind hammering him live like Kattar last week even though his odds were worse than pre-fight.
Gance/Francis: What a fight, one of my fav in recent times. Ngannou has been getting disrespected by the bookies a lot recently, which is a surprise considering he is the perfect kind of mix of hype and power. I remember cashing him as a 3.00 dog over Cain thinking that was the easiest money I ever made. Dog against Blaydes, and recently evens/slight dog to Stipe. The scariest thing about Ngannou is how quickly he closes the distance. He is not some plodding slow brawler. He is light on his feet, has a huge reach and throws straight punches and 1-2s 80% of the time. Gane is an animal, he is so technical, fast, and never gets touched. He freezes people with his faints. The one time he got cracked was by JDS who decided to counter while Gane was throwing a kick, instead of covering up himself. I feel like it will be a lot harder to freeze Francis. Last few of Ganes opponents have been stuck in the mud. Lewis, Volkov, and Jarzinho were all flat-footed and slow. I feel like Francis is a lot likey to plant and throw when Gane comes at him, or burst in with some wild shit. That makes the for a typical intense fight. I think it should be a pick-em, I think the line is a bit narrative-driven. Personally, im passing, if it gets more wild I might have Francis money line, i could see him winning DEC somehow. Currently have tiny sprinkle on Gane DEC at 4.00 just incase he puts on a masterclass on Francis too.
