UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

BigSteve said:
what are you referring to specifically?
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I was refering to the main event how some predictors were on chikadze because of "Narrative" and were wrong.

I would be taking a different approach this weekend.
 
I really like Barcelos / Henry o1.5 @ -185 or over 1 round @ -225.

- The over 1.5 has hit in all of Barcelos UFC fights
- Victor Henry has never been stopped in 26 pro fights
- Barcelos looked like he is slowing down / on the decline in his last fight vs Timur Valiev
 
Flexstyle said:
Looking at Valdez last fight he seemed to gas hard after the first round. 2nd round he got what seems like a lucky punch and finished his opponent. Against Frevola, If he gasses the same way he did after round 1, I see Frevola finishing him in round 2.
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I doubt he fights that way again. That was bang it out to impress Dana fight I think.
 
This card took forever to handicap, but I'm finally done. It's Wagyu or Ramen based on the undercard for me. So here's my thoughts on the fights I bet.

FYI, I primarily bet dogs in MMA. I think it's a sport with a lot of variance, so I don't eat much chalk.

Hansen/Jasudavicius
I bet this one small but I have Hansen by sub(+400) and the under(+210). I know I'm banking on a 22 yr. old with admitted mental health issues, but I think she's still rapidly improving and I think her submissions, coupled with Jasudavicius' long arms, will result in an arm-bar during a scramble.

Frevola/Valdez
This is more of a fade of Frevola than anything but I played the Valdez ml(+169) big. I don't think Frevola is very dangerous, and he's a slow starter. I think he takes one of those bad shots to slow things down and Valdez grabs a guillotine, or maybe even a flash knockout. If it makes it past the 1st round I'll mark this one an L though.

Gravely/Oliveira
Very similar to the last fight, I think Gravely takes a bad shot and gets guillotined. I won't be surprised at all if Gravely takes him down and lays on him to win a decision, but he's shown a low fight-iq so far and he rarely takes the clearest path to victory. At +205 this was a no-brainer for me.

Barcelos/Henry
I think Barcelos unfortunately lost his best years to inactivity. He's not very dangerous and he moves at one speed. He should be the favorite, no question about that, but +390 on Henry, who is a very experienced fighter despite not being well known here, is too high. Small play.

Stamann/Nurmagomedov
If they fight in the middle of the octagon then this bet is toast, but I think Stamann will be able to deal with the striking enough to close the distance and make it a dirty clinch fight. I think his wrestling is good enough to finish takedowns, though I am worried by Nurmagomedov's length. I think the odds on this one are based on the last names rather than what they've shown so I have Stamann ML at 162.

Ngannou/Gane
My thesis is that this goes to a decision. I think Gane has such good movement that he can avoid too much danger, and I don't think he's going to put himself at much risk by attacking. I think Ngannou is tough enough to keep coming forward without getting finished. If that thesis is wrong then I'll lose my ass, but that's what my betting is based on. I'm still deciding on the Over 2.5 at -115, but I took the over 3.5(+150) and over 4.5(+230). I found it amusing that Gane by decision was +225 basically giving Ngannou zero chance at winning a decision.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I doubt he fights that way again. That was bang it out to impress Dana fight I think.
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I would say that he has a lot more to prove now that he's in the UFC. Especially getting a fight on a big PPV with a crowd. I guess we'll see
 
Flexstyle said:
Looking at Valdez last fight he seemed to gas hard after the first round. 2nd round he got what seems like a lucky punch and finished his opponent. Against Frevola, If he gasses the same way he did after round 1, I see Frevola finishing him in round 2.
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Nope
 
ReasonableMan said:
I hope this fooled no one.

This guy is trying to get great odds on Ngannou, and based on the number of "likes", he might succeed.
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This is not the welcome i expected honestly... Actually this is the most insulting post i have ever faced in social media or forums. I always write what i put my money on, you can check my Twitter account.

10 likes doesnt move ufc heavyweight belt fight odds by the way. Last time i moved odds was in weightlifting world championship, from -120 to -1000. And be happy, i terribly lost.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Thank you for sharing your insight.

I am not sure how many of Ganes fights you have seen but I have noticed he very rarely fights from mid-range. He seems to only throw punches from close-range and only kick from long-range.

In theory, wouldn't that make it difficult for Ngannou to load up and land something massive since his big shots are always coming from mid-range? Gane has a pronounced speed advantage, in addition to being an extremely risk averse fighter, so wouldn't this make closing the distance very difficult for Ngannou?

Thanks
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You are welcome, you have good points. I thought the same, it would be difficult beacuse of the things you mentioned, and if the first two rounds passes the fight will be one sided on gane s favor.
 
I feel like Vieira is too unpredictable for me to bet him straight, but I like the over 1.5 -120 or so small. He might get a sub before that so a tiny hedge with SUB +135. Hopefully he doesn't gas hard again.

I like Stamann DEC +270 very small. Parlay the over 2.5 -250 with Gane -120 small. Should've been on that earlier, but I thought people would bet Ngannou.

How could anyone bet on Pereira? It'll be fun to watch at least. Maybe a very small Fialho TKO +400 bet.

Moreno should have this and -160 isn't bad. Might parlay that with Stamann over 2.5 small even though it's -170 and -300 now. Might hedge with Figueredo ITD +300.

I like Gane over 2.5 +100 mid. Ngannou could blitz him, but I like Gane's movement. I'm a bit oversold on switch stance kickboxers so this could be a bad play.
 
And...the dominos start falling. Of course it's 2 of the more anticipated fights.

I'm banished to my basement since I caught the Omicron, Packer game on the big screen tomorrow night and fights on the smaller TV. I hope this fight card doesn't completely fall apart, this is already 2 big hits.
 
The Disasters said:
I'm adding a medium/large bet on Figgy. He looked incredible and I think that's symptomatic of changing to a fight camp where he's not the star.
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Think they fixed his cardio? He's 34 which isn't ancient, but for guys that size it's getting up there. He's always a beast early on, but I don't see how anyone can be confident his cardio is gonna somehow take a big leap up. To be fair, it was okay in the first fight so **maybe** the second fight was him bottoming out and it turns out he's got more in the tank tomorrow than I think he will. But I can't see betting on that, even at decent + odds. Because you KNOW Moreno is gonna have cardio for days and is tough as nails and hard as hell to finish (as in, has never been finished in his career). So once this thing hits rd 3...even if Deveison looks good early I absolutely see Brandon taking over with volume and attacks while Fig tries to find energy that may well not be there.
 
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