UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

Captain Chesapeake said:
You bet medium/large based on physique?
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No, I waited to see his physique before I bet medium/large. If he looked bad then I wouldn't have bet. I had him as the chalk in my analysis so the only thing outstanding was seeing how he looked.

mkess101 said:
Think they fixed his cardio? He's 34 which isn't ancient, but for guys that size it's getting up there. He's always a beast early on, but I don't see how anyone can be confident his cardio is gonna somehow take a big leap up. To be fair, it was okay in the first fight so **maybe** the second fight was him bottoming out and it turns out he's got more in the tank tomorrow than I think he will. But I can't see betting on that, even at decent + odds. Because you KNOW Moreno is gonna have cardio for days and is tough as nails and hard as hell to finish (as in, has never been finished in his career). So once this thing hits rd 3...even if Deveison looks good early I absolutely see Brandon taking over with volume and attacks while Fig tries to find energy that may well not be there.
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That's why I got +157, because everything you say makes sense. I think working with a professional camp, where he's not the #1 guy, is going to give him that late career resurgence. He's never had that his entire career and I think it'll help with pressure and discipline, and it obviously helped with the weight cut and preparation.

I think Moreno is a great fighter, and I'm a fan, but I also think he's been blessed by some luck. Royval dislocating his shoulder early in the fight, a couple draws that could've/should've been losses, etc. I think we'll see a better Figueiredo than the first fight, and the same Moreno. I also think an L would be great for Moreno because he's young and only going to get better.
 
The Disasters said:
No, I waited to see his physique before I bet medium/large. If he looked bad then I wouldn't have bet. I had him as the chalk in my analysis so the only thing outstanding was seeing how he looked.


That's why I got +157, because everything you say makes sense. I think working with a professional camp, where he's not the #1 guy, is going to give him that late career resurgence. He's never had that his entire career and I think it'll help with pressure and discipline, and it obviously helped with the weight cut and preparation.

I think Moreno is a great fighter, and I'm a fan, but I also think he's been blessed by some luck. Royval dislocating his shoulder early in the fight, a couple draws that could've/should've been losses, etc. I think we'll see a better Figueiredo than the first fight, and the same Moreno. I also think an L would be great for Moreno because he's young and only going to get better.
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Yeah if you think there's value go for it. I'm on the other side. +157 equals about a 39% chance Fig wins. I think his chances are much lower. That's not to say he can't win, of course he can. But I see a 34 year old flyweight who's always had cardio issues (albeit one who's a dominant early finisher so hasn't had to overcome those issues all that often) going against a much younger guy with endless cardio. The younger guy who's skillset (cardio aside) should actually continue to develop at a faster pace than the older guy. I agree, the better camp **could** make a difference with Fig. But we've also seen that said countless times and then in the cage there just isn't the improvements that they've been trying to sell.

The biggest reason I like Moreno is his durability. He's a guy that (even against an early killer like Fig) can weather a storm and survive. And not just survive, but quickly turn things around and take over because he doesn't seem to tire much. Betting on Fig to me...IDK. You're either betting on him to finish a guy who's never been finished in about 25 pro fights (including 2 vs Fig already) OR that Fig somehow finds the fountain of youth to where at the 13-15 minute mark in the fight he's not being completely outworked by the fresher fighter.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah if you think there's value go for it. I'm on the other side. +157 equals about a 39% chance Fig wins. I think his chances are much lower. That's not to say he can't win, of course he can. But I see a 34 year old flyweight who's always had cardio issues (albeit one who's a dominant early finisher so hasn't had to overcome those issues all that often) going against a much younger guy with endless cardio. The younger guy who's skillset (cardio aside) should actually continue to develop at a faster pace than the older guy. I agree, the better camp **could** make a difference with Fig. But we've also seen that said countless times and then in the cage there just isn't the improvements that they've been trying to sell.

The biggest reason I like Moreno is his durability. He's a guy that (even against an early killer like Fig) can weather a storm and survive. And not just survive, but quickly turn things around and take over because he doesn't seem to tire much. Betting on Fig to me...IDK. You're either betting on him to finish a guy who's never been finished in about 25 pro fights (including 2 vs Fig already) OR that Fig somehow finds the fountain of youth to where at the 13-15 minute mark in the fight he's not being completely outworked by the fresher fighter.
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I agree with all of this, especially the 39% being too high.

Hell, I'm kinda hoping Fig takes the first 1-2 rounds because it might make for an even better additional live bet on Moreno haha.
 
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figgy won round 5 vs moreno and the dec imo in their first fight which wasn't that long ago. the cardio issues are way overblown, if anything i was really impressed with his cardio in first fight. market is massive over reaction after death bed weight cut from 2nd fight. figgy looks tremendous now and new juice that usada prob never even heard of before, i'm expecting the figgy from first fight to return. crazy odds +150
 
Had a parlay going on for these 3 fights to end ITD

Topuria/Jourdain
Maddelana vs Rodriguez
Moreno vs Figgy

who do I replace Topuria and Jordain with?
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
figgy won round 5 vs moreno and the dec imo in their first fight which wasn't that long ago. the cardio issues are way overblown, if anything i was really impressed with his cardio in first fight. market is massive over reaction after death bed weight cut from 2nd fight. figgy looks tremendous now and new juice that usada prob never even heard of before, i'm expecting the figgy from first fight to return. crazy odds +150
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I mean that's fair, if he's on some super EPO shit or something all bets are off.

I'm just telling you...a grown man cutting down to 125 lbs (even a little guy like him) is NOT natural and it damn sure isn't EASIER at 34 years old than it was at 32.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Pereira/Fialho would be my choice.
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I was thinking about this one but Pereira showed in his last 2 fights that he can fight smarter instead of showing off, chasing a finish and gassing. Then again, he's gonna be fighting infront of a huge crowd so maybe he'll be back to his old self lol.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
frevola no distance or stamann o2.5
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Gotta have a look at stamann. Was also thinking Frevola since I can see Valdez gassing hard after a few takedowns in round 1. Frevola also mentionned wanting to finish him to remind people that he's still there.
 
Flexstyle said:
Gotta have a look at stamann. Was also thinking Frevola since I can see Valdez gassing hard after a few takedowns in round 1. Frevola also mentionned wanting to finish him to remind people that he's still there.
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the fevola no distance is way underpriced imo, fevola is always getting hurt with his meh chin and at same time he has huge grappling edge vs valdez as well as cardio, this will be huge play for me.

stamann can't hurt a fly and he'll look to stall fight a lot with initiating wrestling and stuff, the finishing upside mostly coming from other side but stamann is pretty tough so i like it to go the distance.
 
Flexstyle said:
I was thinking about this one but Pereira showed in his last 2 fights that he can fight smarter instead of showing off, chasing a finish and gassing. Then again, he's gonna be fighting infront of a huge crowd so maybe he'll be back to his old self lol.
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Yeah, I think Fialho will go after him too.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
figgy won round 5 vs moreno and the dec imo in their first fight which wasn't that long ago.
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While that is true, I think that had more to do with the fact that Moreno pretty much took that round off due to his shoulder getting fucked up.

Decided to put a little cash on Demopoulos/Gravely o2.5/Maddalena by KO. Feels like they all should hit fairly easily tbh.
 
My Picks.
D. Figueiredo/Moreno:By ITD. For DK/FD i am on the underdog on this spot, for betting its a solid ITD.
Pereira/Fialho.
Main Event Dec/Ko. For main betting in betting i am picking a different outcomes Dec for Gane, Ngannou by ITD.
Frevola vs Valdez: By Dec.

To bad we lost quite a number of fights.
 
Anyone else think demopoulos looked like she was fresh off the treadmill to weigh in. I just thought it was odd as she is not big for the division
 
TrueAscension said:
The circle in here on Gane is incredible.
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It's a fight that could go either way imo. People think Ngannou has no subtlety to his game, but his feints and traps vs Stipe were actually solid in the rematch. Gane is the real deal too though. The card overall blows, but the ME is as good a HW fight as we've had in a long time.
 
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