Let's be honest guys Kelvin is going to get smashed. He has like a 9 inch reach disadvantage, a height and size disadvantage, he does he best work in boxing range - How is he going to get there against a world class kick boxer who also has grr at foot work and distance management AND a reach and height advantage?
What is Kelvins path to victory, his wrestling? That he never ever uses, like ever, it any fight for a very long time. Kevin's amazing wrestling is a lot like a Woodly's, a rarely seen natural wonder, once every 5 years it pops up and looks okay...
KG is getting smashed, he really has a punches chance at best. He has a good punch on him, his one two has worked before, and it is MMA and anything can happen but all the chips are stacked in Isreal's favour.
In terms of Kelvin's grappling and him potentially using his wrestling:
It's true he hasn't used it in awhile. I agree. Probably since the Magny fight (where he was actually outgrappled for much of the fight--likely because he just never took well to that cut to 170). But dig a little deeper into who he's fought since then.
Hendricks: Well, yeah. Pretty obvious what Kelvin's strategy would be, and that it wouldn't include trying to wrestle.
Kennedy: Beast grappler who's bigger than Kelvin. Again, why would Kelvin try to grapple him?
Vitor: He blasted him in round 1, and Vitor has a tricky guard. Kelvin looked leagues better than non-TRT Vitor standing, he had no reason to take him down.
Weidman: Bigger than Kelvin and a freak grappler, another guy Kelvin wouldn't try to take down.
Bisping: Kelvin KO'd him in like 2 minutes. We never got to see if Kelvin would have tried to implement his wrestling.
Jacare: One of the best grapplers in all of MMA. Another obvious one, no reason for Kelvin to purposefully mess around on the mat with a top 3 grappler in the entire sport.
Israel is purely a striker. He poses zero threat off his back, none. Vettori of all people held him down. Now I do agree that his distance management and TDD have vastly improved since then. He shrugged off Tavares every time. I'm not saying Kelvin will take him down for sure. But your post seemed to imply Kelvin won't even try based on his previous fights. I think that may not be true. Israel is a much different opponent than anyone he's fought. He very well could look to use his grappling.
