UFC 234 Whittaker vs Gastelum

I'm getting weird with this card.

1.5u on Simon by decision @ +158

.5u on Adesanya wins in rd. 2 @ +400
.5u on Adesanya wins in rd. 3 @ +1000

Fook it
 
guidi said:
Yahya on Bet365 for inside the distance opened at +190, its a close fight but I definitely see some value there with his submission skills and experience advantage as well
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His ml is +110, need like +300 for value if you ask me.
 
Oblivian said:
Man, I hate the UFC's new website. When you click on UFC 234 and "how to watch", it only shows the main card is at 10 PM on PPV. Does anyone have the breakdown of the prelims and where to watch?
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mmajunkie

Prelims fight pass 6:30
Espn 8
Ppv 10
 
Oblivian said:
I've been on Yahya a lot lately, but I think this may look like Yahya vs. Soto or Yahya vs. Niinimaki. Yahya can really slow down when dealing with strong wrestlers. On top of that, this will be his first trip to Australia. I haven't made a play, but I think I'm slightly favoring Simon here.
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I rewatched the Niinimäki fight. He’s very composed positional wrestler with great sub defence where as Simon is more a high energy scrambler. Simon’s only loss is against a bjj guy (R2 rnc), so that could be indication that his style is risky against good submission fighters.
 
Simon's a BJJ blue belt that's been taken down repeatedly vs both his UFC opponents going up against a ADCC champ with probably the best BJJ in the division. If Yahya gets him down, which is very likely, he should have a giant BJJ advantage.
 
Im considering going small on Callan Potter ITD. Of his 24 fights he has gone to decision once. He throws hard and has 10 subs.
Turner will be longer and far more technical on the feet but i feel he stands too close to his opponents and doesnt maximise that reach. He has a decent chin but i think Potters fast right hook is hard enough to drop him.
Will be interesting to see whether Potters wrestling is good enough to take down Turner who has an excellent sprawl. If it does go to the ground Potter has a great chance for the sub.
Potter went the distance in December and was exhausted by the 3rd round so i dont think he will win on points.
Its a bit of a roughie but for me the odds justify a small stab.
On the other end Turner can probably finish Potter in the 3rd so FDNGD is worth looking at
 
In his contender series fight Simon had over 10 takedowns but could not secure a position on ground before the last minute. He was somewhat getting mauled on feet, so there should have been motivation to control his opponent. Frelov had a front head lock many times he hit the mat.
 
Yotsuya said:
In his contender series fight Simon had over 10 takedowns but could not secure a position on ground before the last minute. He was somewhat getting mauled on feet, so there should have been motivation to control his opponent. Frelov had a front head lock many times he hit the mat.
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And Frelow is a FLW with historically bad TDD. He actually hit a brief TD on Simon too
 
Last I checked Ricky Simon was one of the best wrestlers on the roster, didn't he out wrestle and grapple Merab?

Only loss is getting rocked and subbed by Anderson Dos Santos in a fight Simon was winning. I put a unit on Simon with no hesitation, but I could be very mistaken haha, he just wrestle fucked Montel Jackson too right? that win looks very good now, even though Jackson has no ground game. Yayah has had one of the weakest strength of schedules on the roster.
 
zeckdo said:
Last I checked Ricky Simon was one of the best wrestlers on the roster, didn't he out wrestle and grapple Merab?

Only loss is getting rocked and subbed by Anderson Dos Santos in a fight Simon was winning. I put a unit on Simon with no hesitation, but I could be very mistaken haha, he just wrestle fucked Montel Jackson too right? that win looks very good now, even though Jackson has no ground game. Yayah has had one of the weakest strength of schedules on the roster.
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Merab was pretty clearly outwrestling him, dropped him in the first and Simon was going to lose a clear decision if not for the controversial last second choke. He did pretty easily outwrestle Jackson but Jackson looked awful in that fight, just didn't have any urgency to defend the wrestling of Simon and let himself get outworked to a decision.
 
I thought Merab mauled Simon on the grappling but Merab is a beast grappler too tho. Ricky will have to be on his bike if he wants to win this fight imo.
 
Just re-watched the Merab- Simon fight, I would say that Simon got the better of the ground game, Merab landed a lot of takedowns but Simon looked calm and reversed the position with a scramble every time, then of course the infamous ending. If Merab couldn't control Simon on the ground I don't think Yayah will, but it's hard to tell because Merab and Yayah's style of grappling is so different. Merab got the better of the striking exchanges too, Simon's striking isn't good. Either way, I'm gonna let my unit on Simon ride for now.
 
Took a little Ishihara ML at +350 and KO at +800. Kang is solid but struggled early against southpaw Cannetti and ate some big shots. Ishihara isn't great by any means but he's a hard hitting southpaw and has dropped 6 of his 8 UFC opponents at least once the exceptions being Petr Yan and Maynard. While he has a tendency to fade he's always survived to a decision so I think there's a reasonable chance of him landing well enough early to steal a couple of rounds or potentially get a KO which at current odds I think gives him value.

In hindsight as well I think at least 3 of his 4 losses were pretty tough match ups. Maynard is a big wrestler that just smothered him, Lobov while technically weak has a freakish chin to negate Ishi's power and Yan is just plain great.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Took a little Ishihara ML at +350 and KO at +800. Kang is solid but struggled early against southpaw Cannetti and ate some big shots. Ishihara isn't great by any means but he's a hard hitting southpaw and has dropped 6 of his 8 UFC opponents at least once the exceptions being Petr Yan and Maynard. While he has a tendency to fade he's always survived to a decision so I think there's a reasonable chance of him landing well enough early to steal a couple of rounds or potentially get a KO which at current odds I think gives him value.

In hindsight as well I think at least 3 of his 4 losses were pretty tough match ups. Maynard is a big wrestler that just smothered him, Lobov while technically weak has a freakish chin to negate Ishi's power and Yan is just plain great.
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Haha I gotta admit I laughed at Maynard (ghost of) and Lobov being mentioned as tough match ups. I get what you're saying though.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Haha I gotta admit I laughed at Maynard (ghost of) and Lobov being mentioned as tough match ups. I get what you're saying though.
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Agreed, I thought that writing it but amusingly the few strengths they actually have were just what they needed to do well against Ishihara.
 
I think the people who are giving Kelvin a tangible chance to KO Whittaker are seriously underestimating the chin/recovery/durability it takes to survive two Yoel Romero onslaughts like Bobby did in the second fight. Bobby is insanely tough and durable; don’t forget the fact that he beat Yoel with a blown out knee in the first fight also. I think Kelvin’s power is being oversold a bit, and his speed advantage isn’t going to apply in this matchup like it normally does at middleweight.
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
I think the people who are giving Kelvin a tangible chance to KO Whittaker are seriously underestimating the chin/recovery/durability it takes to survive two Yoel Romero onslaughts like Bobby did in the second fight. Bobby is insanely tough and durable; don’t forget the fact that he beat Yoel with a blown out knee in the first fight also. I think Kelvin’s power is being oversold a bit, and his speed advantage isn’t going to apply in this matchup like it normally does at middleweight.
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He also severely broke his right hand in the first round of the rematch
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
Fellow bettor on Discord pointed out that Nadia has been battling severe depression and anorexia since her last fight as well. Huge red flag for females. Montana is definitely the play.
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Yeah she weighed 105lbs back in August
 
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