Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 30, 2019.
Yahya underdog me likey, not much else that is interesting oddswise, maybe alvey as a slight underdog. And shane young as a moderate favourite, arnett is really awful.
I really think Gastelum is gonna be too fast for Whittaker. Remember whittiker has been in wars prior this, suffered ridiculous injuries etc. Gastelum has the boxing, chin, cardio and aggression to make it a dogfight and win by decision or by KO. If the odds get better here, I may put down a few.
Didn't notice Alvey was put in; decent step up for Crute. Have never rated Alvey, easiest guy in the division to gameplan for and yet I don't think Crute is smart enough to do it. Feint, leg kick, circle, jab. Those 4 things in any order and you win. Alvey does nothing when he's losing, doesn't change it up and never shows urgency.
Crute however will initiate the clinch/grapple and lacks composure a bit (but he's young so that's to be expected) and from what I've seen doesn't have the skillset to take the easiest route to victory here. Alvey with a + next to it is the play IMO
Gastelum, in a world with better judging, has one win over a current MW. I really like Whittaker dec & fight to start R4.
Im huge on Kai Kara over Paiva. Kai has dynamite in his hands along with decent wrestling and ground game from the bottom or the top. Compare that to Paiva whos record looks seriously padded. His Brazilian DWCS fight was a split decision win riddled with errors on the feet and ground. He didnt take the fight to his opponent and if you give Kai and inch he will take a mile and sleep you. Paiva was getting reversed out of wrestling positions and was generally sloppy. I will be on Kai ML and ITD
Gastelum is so one dimensional and overrated. His MW success is pretty much unconvincing split decisions over Uriah Hall and Jacare (2 guys dominated by Whittaker) and then beating up a bunch of guys that needed to retire. He has a great chin though but Whittaker is a far better striker and after dealing with Romero Kelvins left hand shouldn't be much of a problem plus won't have his usual speed advantage to just bounce in and out with the same combinations like he normally does.
Whittaker Decision should be great but after Kelvin gassed so hard against Jacare in 3 rounds I'd be concerned he'll slow down and Whittaker will just swarm him for a Hollowayesque TKO. I also expect Whittaker to maybe take him down at some point given he should have a massive wrestling advantage and Kelvins TDD is pretty average at best, it also gives Whittaker a good option if he does get caught by any hard shots and he showed that vs Romero where he shot a single when badly hurt in order to recover. If he can make that work against a wrestler on the level of Romero then vs Gastelum it should be very effective. Don't like betting big favs but put 2.5u on Whittakers ML at -227, just don't see where Kelvin has an advantage except being able to take a hit.
This is a massive card for me, already have essentially 4 max bets on Young -210, DLR -190, KKF -200, Lando -280. Not really my style to bet a ton of favs heavy, but I think these lines are all well off, don't see a non flukey path for any of their opponents.
Not a big lean obviously from you, but what’s your take?
I bet that pre tape thinking Simon could use his wrestling base to keep the fight upright and outstrike Yahya to a decision. Post-tape I won't be adding. Wrestling is a core part of Simon's game, the only performance he had that wasn't wrestling dominant was his 1 minute KO of Zani. His TDD is far from bulletproof and he has a habit of giving up his back when getting up.
Yahyas cardio was a factor pre tape as well but he's addressed that since the Soto fight. Saying that, Simon does set a hell of a pace so we could see Yahya fade if it goes late. Even if Simon can keep it upright it's not too farfetched to think that Yahya could keep it competitive or even win the stand up, he's a black belt in MT while Simon is pretty wild, though Yahya usually just sprints in with blitzes to disguise his TDs.
Unlike fighters like Do Bronx, it's not a death sentence if Yahya can get it to the mat, but I worry about what happens in prolonged exchanges if Simon engages in grappling. Yahya isn't much of a threat from his back with subs, but he has very good sweeps and a strong top game where he can work a large variety of unorthodox subs.
I'm letting the .3u ride but if I didn't already have action I'd pass.
Lmao, trust me I wasn't looking to play Lando here, actually taped it twice as I was so against ever playing Lando big. His opponent is one of the worst signees in recent years, literally 0 ground game or TDD. On the feet, despite his massive reach advantage over everyone, he can barely land a jab. He tries to imitate Anderson Silva but everything is slow and telegraphed. Even with Landos horrid cardio I think he wins round 3 if it somehow gets that far.
Watch these and tell me Lando at -2xx isn't a steal.
Pro debut 2013
I dont mean to be rude, but this feels like a contrived bs mixed with mma math nonsense we know is bs in mma.
When did the Uriah Hall fight occur? Jacare just beat the ever living shit outta Weidman and is a top 3 MW currently. Kelvin has a history of beating up guys he shouldve lost to, hell I thought he shouldve gotten the win against Woodley after fighting ill and missing weight. You could easily pull the same nonsense contrived bs against Whittiker. I hope this isnt how you bet normally.
Sounds fair. I have medium bet on Yahya and hope that he’ll get a sub or can impress the judges with bigger shots and some back control time even if he’d be on defensive most of the time because of Simon’s high work rate and his own still suspect cardio.
Can someone explain the de la rosa line? Seems like it should be an even odds fight at worst.
Raulian Paiva line is insane at +245.
How will Gastelum beat Whittaker then? So what Weidman is a top 3 middleweight he'd still get dominated Whittaker just as he did Whittaker did to Jacare too. Jacare didn't 'beat the ever living shit outta Weidman' he lost the first round clearly and it was competitive till eventually Jacare caught him in the third. Idk what you mean about his history of beating guys he shouldn't of, literally the only fight he won as a significant underdog was against Uriah Hall. He lost as a big favourite to Magny and was even a favourite over Weidman despite the fact a few months prior he was getting takendown repeatedly by the ghost of Tim Kennedy yet somehow people expected him to beat an All American wrestler, ADCC gold medalist and Renzo Gracie Black belt. He's constantly overrated despite the fact most of his career is throwing the same basic combinations and finishing off well past their prime guys who happen to have big names. The closest to a prime fighter he fought at 185 since getting booted out of welterweight was Weidman coming off 3 TKO losses and he got finished. Aside from the flash knockdown he got absolutely dominated and was outboxed too let alone being ragdolled most of the fight.
I mean maybe Whittaker took one too many shots vs Romero and Gastelum lands flush early but do I really give Gastelum anywhere near to the 33.3% chance the bookie is offering on that happening? Nope. I'm gonna trust that he at least decided to train hard for a title fight even if he didn't for half his career and go ahead and say I don't think he'll gas this time out, but thinking he can just throw the same southpaw 3-2 combo that he always does against Whittaker for 25 minutes and win 3 rounds or put him to sleep with any level of reliability is just a bit nuts imo.
Really high on Bobby and Bobby ITD here. Bobby is an animal, Kelvin is overrated. Aside from a great chin, what does he really bring into the octagon for Bobby to worry about? He will be undersized and won’t have his normal MW speed advantage here. His boxing is overrated anyway. If Bobby survived that beating fucking Yoel Romero laid on him, I don’t see anyone stopping him anytime soon, never mind Kelvin with the same one-two combination over and over again. If the fight does go to decision, I think it’s going to be Kelvin gassing halfway through round 3 and Bobby just picking him apart for 2 and a half rounds on his way to a unanimous 49-46 or even 50-45
You must just be record capping to say this
I'm capping it based on:
1: de la rosa probably shouldn't be -255 over anyone with a pulse
2: it's a hometown fight for kassem
Watch the tape and it'll make sense. Kassem probably the worst on the roster.
Agreed. The Yoel that fought Whittaker (twice) is one of the greatest fighters this planet has ever seen. And gastelum is not as good as the Yoel that Whittaker beat.
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