UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[ill800]

I have no problem playing almost all of these dogs at current prices.

Juice era giving us some really good lines.

2018 and people are still paying over -300 for one dimensional fighters

 

[AusTosh]

Huh? Adesanya knocked Tavares down and had him badly hurt on multiple occasions. Tavares survived by desperately clinching and grappling for dear life. Nevermind the fact that Tavares probably has a tougher chin than Brunson, anyways.

Also, Adesanya has knocked out 12 of his 14 opponents; focusing on the only two opponents that went the distance and ignoring the rest is a mistake.



Irrelevant. The question is "how likely is Adesanya to KO Brunson in the stand-up?". The relevant factors are Adesanya's striking and Brunson's chin and defense.

haha i'm with you. Israel's striking is levels ahead. 12/14 ko. definition of a class striker. tko's and ko's from timing and combos, set ups etc.He was a Glory middleweight contender lol. Says enough... That's where the best pure strikers fight these days (Europe). Muay thai = Thailand.

As long as his TDD is on point, he should be able to easily fend off Derek lol.

 

[Larthus]

I wish Julio Arce was in the -250 range. He is the closest thing to a lock on this card.
If I was rolling in it, I would absolutely feel confident dropping a couple thousand on him. Same with Shane Burgos.


Frievola is a Serra-Longo guy. I like the game plans they usually come in with. Path to victory wise he might be the best choice for a dog. FGTD if offered is best bet for this fight as well.


Hesitant on Lima because of the hype in this thread. Can someone sell me on him?

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I cant erase from my mind Adesanya getting taken down and controlled by Vettori.. a fucking italian.

I do think that this is Brunson fight to lose. If he comes with a wrestling heavy gameplan he got this one on the bag.

Took a small stab at Brunson via decision at +500. I think he can steal a couple of rounds if he decides to wrestle and survive the rest of the fight.

Also people love Israel record but the difference in level of competition is pretty big. Derek has been there with Anderson, Whittaker, Jacare (twice), Romero, Hall, Machida, Larkin.. etc. He has been competing in the highest level for a long time.

Adesanya best opponent was a very scrappy Brad Tavares who happens to be a good matchup for him. Everybody else were journeyman at best.

 

[ill800]

Israel knocking out everyone until he gets in the ufc. Now his ko rate is 33% and the sole ko being against Wilkinson.

Brunsons issue is keeping his chin high. This is why he’s gotten kod by big punches

Israel is not a big puncher. Brunsons chin problem shouldn’t be an issue

Brunson also probably significantly stronger

I expect Brunson to look for takedowns in this fight. Should be a big part of his gameplan.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Man, people bet Lima down from +300 at opening to +190 at places now, in no time at all.

Feels to like me to a fight that will close end up closing near evens.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I'm feeling good about getting Arce at -165

 

[raketmannen]

Israel knocking out everyone until he gets in the ufc. Now his ko rate is 33% and the sole ko being against Wilkinson.

Brunsons issue is keeping his chin high. This is why he’s gotten kod by big punches

Israel is not a big puncher. Brunsons chin problem shouldn’t be an issue

Brunson also probably significantly stronger

I expect Brunson to look for takedowns in this fight. Should be a big part of his gameplan.

3 fights is way to small of a sample size to make an assumption like that. He's a precision striker like Conor, don't think anyone of them got any special power but they got great timing and cathes people coming in, that can make a bigger difference than just raw power. Also, any 200 pound man can knock anyone out with a headkick or a clean thai plum knee. Even 115 pound chicks are able to do that.

 

[LiquidNuke]

To anyone who has Fight Pass, I highly recommend you check out Lima's The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 bout against Thiago "Big Monster" Santos. It's a great example of how Lima fights when in against a much larger heavyweight as opposed to his more often seen light heavyweight bouts, against a guy in Santos that weighs in around the heavyweight limit and is also taller than Lima.

Lima shows good take down defense when pushed against the cage... Stops the take down from a full fledged big lump of a heavyweight and then jumps for a killer guillotine that he gets the tap with in short order. Santos isn't a great fighter but he isn't a bad one either, he actually has a few respectable names on his resume.... and he's someone that routinely gets stopped by strikes, and was only submitted one other time during his lengthy career.. against the once in a generation submission ability of Alexey Oleynik.

 

[Lightbringer]

Super confident in Lando here and may also play his itd line. Lando has had some tough stylistic matchups in recent fights. Klose has sick leg kicks and is a great clinch fighter who was able to slow Lando down with his upper body clinching. Green is long and has a good jab that gave Lando issues even though Lando should have won the fight if it was not for the accidental knee in the first round and he hurt Green badly multiple times. And Teymur is an awesome counter striker who is hard to land on.

What Lando showed in these fights is that he is actually an insanely awesome defensive wrestler to leg attacks and he is defensively sound to looping punches. The weaknesses he showed is that he is susceptible to leg kicks and a long man’s striking game and can be gassed out if you fight him via clinching or with a lot of volume and pressure with strikes.

Frevola has none of those volume striking or clinch wrestling capabilities. Other an an initial uncomposed blitz that Frevola tends to implement early in his fights (which may get him koed clean in the first round here as his chin is always straight up in the air and he paid for it against Polo Reyes and has been hit multiple times clean in other organizations against bad fighters), Frevola tends to just throw an occasional left and right hand haymaker hook which should not give Lando issues. Frevola also shoots an occasional double leg which I can say with total confidence—- will not work on a guy like Lando. Lando has awesome defensive wrestling when you shoot double legs, single legs, etc. I do not see how Frevola will win rounds here. he won’t win with takedowns and wrestling and in his titan fc fights, he just sits back and throws predictable low volume hook combinations after the first couple of minutes. Lando throws way more volume and will land some really big shots here. I know Lando has slowed down before but those were ridiculously high output fights where his opponents forced their type of fight (klose clinching for days and green being able to keep up with the volume of lando). Frevola does not have the output or clinch ability to get lando tired. I expect Lando to knock Frevola out clean or win a dominating decision by landing some big big shots, barely getting landed on himself, getting tds himself, and easily stopping all the predictable double legs that Frevola shoots.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Anyone know why Lima's been inactive since April of last year?

 

[ill800]

3 fights is way to small of a sample size to make an assumption like that. He's a precision striker like Conor, don't think anyone of them got any special power but they got great timing and cathes people coming in, that can make a bigger difference than just raw power. Also, any 200 pound man can knock anyone out with a headkick or a clean thai plum knee. Even 115 pound chicks are able to do that.

11 fights, 11 kos
3 fights in the ufc and only one finish

Small Sample size or a step up in competition?

People have commented on Brunson having a weak chin I’m just pointing out that he gets hurt because he has a bad habit of leaving his chin straight up. This won’t be a problem agaisnt Israel because stylebenders kos come from Thai strikes

 

[raketmannen]

11 fights, 11 kos
3 fights in the ufc and only one finish

Small Sample size or a step up in competition?

People have commented on Brunson having a weak chin I’m just pointing out that he gets hurt because he has a bad habit of leaving his chin straight up. This won’t be a problem agaisnt Israel because stylebenders kos come from Thai strikes

I think you are simplifying things too much, just because Israel has a lot of finishes in the clinch dosen't mean he can't hurt Brunson on distance, or that Brunsons high chin won't be a problem. Brunson mostly keeps his chin high when he goes on the offensive and swings in the pocket, not when he's being defensive, and that's where Israels thai experience could come into play
And obviously 3 fights in the UFC is still too small of a sample size, but the step up in competition is certanily a factor too

 

[LiquidNuke]

Just watched Wieczorek/Hamilton and it was a dreadful affair... Absolutely terrible stamina shown by the mid 20's Pole. The fact that the fight was razor close and that Wieczorek couldn't do anything with a fighter as fragile as Hamilton was concerning. A red flag of a fight for sure.

 

[Stunna77]

To anyone who has Fight Pass, I highly recommend you check out Lima's The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 bout against Thiago "Big Monster" Santos. It's a great example of how Lima fights when in against a much larger heavyweight as opposed to his more often seen light heavyweight bouts, against a guy in Santos that weighs in around the heavyweight limit and is also taller than Lima.

Lima shows good take down defense when pushed against the cage... Stops the take down from a full fledged big lump of a heavyweight and then jumps for a killer guillotine that he gets the tap with in short order. Santos isn't a great fighter but he isn't a bad one either, he actually has a few respectable names on his resume.... and he's someone that routinely gets stopped by strikes, and was only submitted one other time during his lengthy career.. against the once in a generation submission ability of Alexey Oleynik.

That killer guillotine can be a curse as well, however. He has gone for it and failed many times and then gives up and gets choked out himself. That is his way of defending td's which is essentially kill or be killed. I would much rather have him stuff and disengage here against Adam.

 

[LiquidNuke]

That killer guillotine can be a curse as well, however. He has gone for it and failed many times and then gives up and gets choked out himself. That is his way of defending td's which is essentially kill or be killed. I would much rather have him stuff and disengage here against Adam.

Yeah, I saw him go balls to the wall against Krylov with it and despite making Krylov wince in pain and struggle a bit he was never close to tapping. After that failed he was boned, Kyylov took his back and that was that.

 

[Danis_champ]

Wiez gets the love because of that rare omoplata he pulled of. He had a close fight against Anthony Hamilton of all people. And he was losing the Bhullar fight before Bhullar saw omoplata for the first time in his life. super weird betting line here

 

[LiquidNuke]

Wiez gets the love because of that rare omoplata he pulled of. He had a close fight against Anthony Hamilton of all people. And he was losing the Bhullar fight before Bhullar saw omoplata for the first time in his life. super weird betting line here

He's going to be at a decent size advantage here along with the winning streak, he's got 4 inches in height for starters and in general is much rangier. Lima certainly packs the power in his fists to put Wiez out in a hurry and some tools like leg and body kicks that could see him taking this bout.

Lima does all his best work early though, so I hope we don't end up with the giant Pole humping Lima to narrowly bore two out of three rounds from the judges.

 

[Lightbringer]

That killer guillotine can be a curse as well, however. He has gone for it and failed many times and then gives up and gets choked out himself. That is his way of defending td's which is essentially kill or be killed. I would much rather have him stuff and disengage here against Adam.

This is the main reason I'm either not throwing on Marcos or just playing his ko line. I doubt he can sub matt so I have no interest in his itd line. I also don't think Marcos can win a decision because he doesnt fight composed ever (except for a little bit vs osp). If he played a sprawl and brawl gameplan, he could easily cruise to a decision or get a ko, but I just expect something to happen like Marcos jumping a guillotine or diving for a td and getting dominated on the ground. Marcos could literally be dominating and then randomly subbed on the floor at any point of this fight. Therefore, I would much rather play Marcos ko at a good return because if he wins, it will mostly be by fucking Adam up badly with strikes. I don't see Marcos cruising to a decision with striking.

 

[Stunna77]

This is the main reason I'm either not throwing on Marcos or just playing his ko line. I doubt he can sub matt so I have no interest in his itd line. I also don't think Marcos can win a decision because he doesnt fight composed ever (except for a little bit vs osp). If he played a sprawl and brawl gameplan, he could easily cruise to a decision or get a ko, but I just expect something to happen like Marcos jumping a guillotine or diving for a td and getting dominated on the ground. Marcos could literally be dominating and then randomly subbed on the floor at any point of this fight. Therefore, I would much rather play Marcos ko at a good return because if he wins, it will mostly be by fucking Adam up badly with strikes. I don't see Marcos cruising to a decision with striking.

I have 1u Lima ML +225
.15u Lima rd1 +450
.15u Lima KO +335

I agree with you on almost all points, however didn't want to get burned by the off chance he does win the first two rounds and survives the 3rd or fights more composed after another camp at ATT.