UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

[turbozed]

Not seeing why so much money's coming on Duffy. Vick's a legit LW and better than anybody Duffy's beaten. I really feel like we're not going to see Cody winning by decision due to the volume disparity in strikes, since Dillashaw has a lot more pop than Cruz who massively outlanded Garbrandt. I also don't trust TJ's chin if Cody starts connecting clean, so I think that there's a possible Cody-KO/TJ-ML split that's a free 1.4.

I agree with you. Surprised to see Duffy at -245 just now. He's just not that good. Looked great against Madadi last fight so I guess there's some recency bias there. Also beat McGregor many moons ago so there's that too. But for a guy who got dominated against the only quality opponent the UFC put in front of him, that's just a bit much.

 

[Sadistics]

@Gugabe @turbozed watch tape and you'll understand; surprised he's not a bigger favourite.

 

[Papi]

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GOAT opener

So sick!!! Im jealous. Still nothing on bovada sigh!!!

 

[Papi]

My fav plays so far in order
CuteLocka ko
Duffy
Bisping
Borrachina ko

CuteLockas opponent looks like a undersized MW and gets tagged every fight

 

[Sadistics]

So sick!!! Im jealous. Still nothing on bovada sigh!!!

You gotta switch man, Bovada is shit for MMA betting

 

[Papi]

You gotta switch man, Bovada is shit for MMA betting

Shit man no joke. R u on dimes?

 

[Sadistics]

Shit man no joke. R u on dimes?

Dimes, Pinnacle, 365, and Ohm. I assume you're American in which case you'd want 5Dimes or bookmaker

 

[Guitardude]

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GOAT opener

Damn, Cutelaba now at -445 on 5D lol. Still worth the bet you think?

 

[Papi]

Damn, Cutelaba now at -445 on 5D lol. Still worth the bet you think?

Cutelabas gonna steamroll this dude. But its a lot of juoce i would play his under

 

[Papi]

Dimes, Pinnacle, 365, and Ohm. I assume you're American in which case you'd want 5Dimes or bookmaker

Ya im american. Alright i think after this event im gonna move my br to 5d

 

[Papi]

What the concensus on gall vs brown? I heard gall used to get the better of him in the grappling when they trained. Gall says hes gonna choke him out. Im gonna start tape on it tommorow.

 

[Sadistics]

Damn, Cutelaba now at -445 on 5D lol. Still worth the bet you think?

Still holds a bit of value imo. If I didn't already have my bets, I'd be parlaying Ion + JJ and have Duffy straight

 

[Sadistics]

What the concensus on gall vs brown? I heard gall used to get the better of him in the grappling when they trained. Gall says hes gonna choke him out. Im gonna start tape on it tommorow.

If it hits the mat I think it could be gameover for Brown, he gives his back way too often. Everyone but Camozzi has been able to take Brown down at least once. Gall has decent TDs and is great at catching kicks which Brown throws a lot of.

Card posted an interview where Brown was saying he's mainly been training wrestling and anti-bjj this camp, could see him stick n move to a decision. Hard fight to call.

 

[Sadistics]

Duffy -152 at Pinnacle, can't help myself, adding

 

[Guitardude]

Still holds a bit of value imo. If I didn't already have my bets, I'd be parlaying Ion + JJ and have Duffy straight

Thanks, yeah I'm a newb - just found out how to do that lol. But yeah, Duffy back down to -175. I think he's an excellent fighter and very underrated, but why do you favor him that heavily over Vick? I think the only way to beat Duffy is to wrestleF him like Poirier did if you're not Conor McGregor, but Vick is no slouch on his feet or not the ground either.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Hey man I was just looking through your record, did you really have 15% of your bankroll on Bibulatov?

I HIGHLY doubt it. I’ll have to check. My CT is all fucked up right now. I’m writing and capping for a prominent betting site and they keep their own records and I’ve slacked on keeping up with mine. i.e. last week I had Covington as my major bet along with Pedro Munoz ML and by submission + Thiago Santos and I inadvertently omitted both of them from my CT page. However I listed them here in the official bets thread

... Right now my MMA record is:

+138.94u +15.08% ROI 360 days
+158.46u +11.63% ROI 720 days

Those are more accurate representation but having left out Covington really fucked up my statistics.

 

[Sadistics]

Thanks, yeah I'm a newb - just found out how to do that lol. But yeah, Duffy back down to -175. I think he's an excellent fighter and very underrated, but why do you favor him that heavily over Vick? I think the only way to beat Duffy is to wrestleF him like Poirier did if you're not Conor McGregor, but Vick is no slouch on his feet or not the ground either.

Basically, while they both have similar boxing-centric styles, Duffy is much better in every area. He also has all the intangibles such as speed, power, durability, and fight IQ. Vick's game mainly consists of boxing where he's always overextending and an excessive amount of flying knees. He has good counter wrestling but has never attempted a TD except against a gassed Trujillo.

I rate Duffy as one of the top strikers in the UFC, amazing and fairly unorthodox boxing technique with a TKD black belt in his back pocket. Vick doesn't have near the wrestling ability to replicate what Poirier did, and don't forget Duffy has a black belt in Japanese Jiu Jitsu as well as a BJJ blue belt. The one knock on Duffy is his pocket boxing, but that won't be a problem with how lanky Vick is.

I've watched Vick's last 9 fights and Duffy's last 7, I feel I have a good read on the matchup and think this could be the best line of the year. I'll be rewatching tape as I now have an obscene amount on Duffy

 

[Guitardude]

Basically, while they both have similar boxing-centric styles, Duffy is much better in every area. He also has all the intangibles such as speed, power, durability, and fight IQ. Vick's game mainly consists of boxing where he's always overextending and an excessive amount of flying knees. He has good counter wrestling but has never attempted a TD except against a gassed Trujillo.

I rate Duffy as one of the top strikers in the UFC, amazing and fairly unorthodox boxing technique with a TKD black belt in his back pocket. Vick doesn't have near the wrestling ability to replicate what Poirier did, and don't forget Duffy has a black belt in Japanese Jiu Jitsu as well as a BJJ blue belt. The one knock on Duffy is his pocket boxing, but that won't be a problem with how lanky Vick is.

I've watched Vick's last 9 fights and Duffy's last 7, I feel I have a good read on the matchup and think this could be the best line of the year. I'll be rewatching tape as I now have an obscene amount on Duffy

Agreed. I think outside of McGregor, Duffy beats every other 155lber striking.

 

[Rapidryan88]

Still waiting on a uk book to release all the fights

 

[turbozed]

I think Duffy is a great striker and looks very talented too but I think any superlatives this point is a bit early. He's been a -500 favorite or more against almost all of his opponents except for Poirier because they threw the bottom level UFC fighters at him. So yeah he looks great demolishing bad strikers, but it's not like he was dominating Poirier in the standup either. He's not a great pocket boxer or comfortable in the clinch, doesn't like pressure, and his lead leg is there to be kicked. Fast hands, good combos, and good timing though. Yeah he should be the favorite here but -245 was a bit too wide, and the market seems to have agreed because he's back down to -175. I guess this is a good time to add on more if you're a Duffy backer.