Elections Trump calls for probe of famed Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer after she quits role

[ShadowRun]

Ah man the guy they call literally Hitler Nazi said this ..

 

[nostradumbass]

Point me to the statute or law. You're talking out of your ass. If bad polls were illegal, push polling would have gone the way of the dodo years ago.

I like how you want to shift blame from people recklessly gambling on elections to anyone but themselves.

Betting on elections wasn't legal until this one for the CFTC to have prosecuted fraudulent information to move betting odds. Nobody's above the law, and according to novel legal theorists which I know is supported by democrats, each fraudulent respondent will be its own felony charge. Ann Seltzer is looking at 700 years in prison with a transgender cellmate.

Fraud Regulated by the CFTC - Constantine Cannon

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, regulates the futures markets, the options markets, and the swaps trading markets, as well as the actors in those markets, with the mission of fostering “open, transparent, competitive, and financially sound markets” to avoid systemic risk and...

constantinecannon.com

 

[Fox by the Sea]

no serious pollster misses the mark by that enormous amount by using solid methodology. she obviously shouldn't be investigated, but it was most likely done for manipulative political purposes.

 

[Fedor>Cain]

no serious pollster misses the mark by that enormous amount by using solid methodology. she obviously shouldn't be investigated, but it was most likely done for manipulative political purposes.

Here are a couple of 538 subreddit users talking about her metholgy.

She went for a method with minimal weighting and accounting for sample errors because she doesn't want to "project the electorate," which historically worked well because she could get a solid response and find a representative sample of Iowans. Now, it bit her in the ass because she got a terribly unrepresentative sample (D+2 in an R+8 state, plus a very college-skewed sample in a poll where she didn't weight for education). If she would've done normal pollster methods like weighting by education or recall vote or something, she probably would've gotten a fine number.

I wouldn't hold the mistake against her too much if she would just acknowledge that it was a blatant failure of her method. Like the "galvanizing republicans" argument is some absolutely Litchman-tier grasping at straws, it's ridiculous.

She also used phone polls only. Iowa skews older, so Iowans probably used phones and landlines for longer than most people, which explains why she could still be accurate in 2020 and 2022, but Iowan phone survey response rate probably finally dropped to a point where she could no longer get a representative sample.

So I mean, it's one thing to shit on her, but it's wild to claim she was committing election fraud. It also should probably be criminal for a president-elect to shoot his mouth off about a pollster like that. Nothing screams freedom of the press like "I will investigate you if your polls are outside the margins of what they should be."

This lady is guilty of using a shitty metholgy for a poll that has been accurate leading up to this election. She will no doubt receive death threats because Trump is posting this shit.

Honest question, do you really believe that Donald Trump has any sort of understanding of the math that goes into polling?

And from a morality standpoint, do you think it's right for him to just straight up make this lady's life a living hell because she posted a shit poll he didn't like?

 

[koquerelle]

One can observe sociological hypnosis in real time by going back and viewing the TV propagandists pushing nonsense like this patients poll and spinning the whole presidential run, from Brandon to Harris... Totally bizarre and a lot of us saw right through it... When they investigate this woman they'll find she was a victim of her own hypnotic miasma, blinding her to objectivity and reality...

Then they'll ask how, where do these strings lead when pulled? They'll lead to the woke echo chambers online and TV talking heads doubling as political propagandists and certified mental patients...

Turn off the TV!

You're so dumb I don't know if you're real or a troll. Please don't have children.

 

[deviake]

The free speech champions

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Honest question, do you really believe that Donald Trump has any sort of understanding of the math that goes into polling?

Given she missed the mark by almost 20 percentage points, i'd say her understanding of the math is equally shit.

And from a morality standpoint, do you think it's right for him to just straight up make this lady's life a living hell because she posted a poll he didn't like?

Oh now you guys care about making peoples lives a living hell?
when you can lose your job for not acknowledging a man can become a woman?
you opened up this can of worms, now deal with it. i have no empathy for people that would gladly do harm to you for wrongthink. fuck her. your manipulative tactics by playing victimhood aren't fooling anyone anymore. you just get some back.

 

[ShadowRun]

This is it, start the impeachment papers now !

 

[Seano]

I suppose it could be argued that a poll that is far removed from reality could discourage voters from the perceived "losing side" to bother to go out and vote.

I guess if it can be shown she knowingly skewed the poll results I don't have a problem with calling it election interference and possibly fraud if she was paid for the job.

 

[UberHere]

She almost certainly took a massive payout from the Harris campaign for that borderline retarded poll. That doesn’t constitute a crime though.

On second thought maybe this should be investigated. This last admin deserves a taste of their own medicine and have the justice system used against them.

 

[UberHere]

You're so dumb I don't know if you're real or a troll. Please don't have children.

I bet you voted for Kamala though

 

[UberHere]

This is it, start the impeachment papers now !

Not this time around. Dems don’t have the seats at this table. Adults are back in the room

 

[PEB]

While we are at it we should launch and investigation into Elon Musk offering a million dollars a day to get people registered to vote turns out to have been predetermined and the people were selected ahead of time one of them works in Washington patent office.

 

[Fedor>Cain]

Given she missed the mark by almost 20 percentage points, i'd say her understanding of the math is equally shit.

Oh now you guys care about making peoples lives a living hell?
when you can lose your job for not acknowledging a man can become a woman?
you opened up this can of worms, now deal with it. i have no empathy for people that would gladly do harm to you for wrongthink. fuck her. your manipulative tactics by playing victimhood aren't fooling anyone anymore. you just get some back.

Exactly what I thought lmao.

Trump can do no wrong for you. Again, her poll had worked fine up until this year brother.

How is the president-elect calling for a criminal investigation into a pollster in any way equivalent to what you said lmao? It's absolutely not ieven similar, but you don't care because it's Trump. That is amoral as fuck and just sad.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Exactly what I thought lmao.

Trump can do no wrong for you. Again, her poll had worked fine up until this year brother.

How is the president-elect calling for a criminal investigation into a pollster in any way equivalent to what you said lmao? It's absolutely not ieven similar, but you don't care because it's Trump. That is amoral as fuck and just sad.

Well since I voted that she shouldn't be investigated in the poll it looks like all this panic wrestling you wrote here is worthless.

 

[Madmick]

I actually wouldn't mind turning over a few stones with these pollsters.

They were all so far off I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't deliberately teasing numbers to favor a particular confidence. Probably not, but show me. I'd like to see that all the decisions that led to this weren't a matter of questionable decisions regarding data sampling and mathematical weighting.

 

[UberHere]

While we are at it we should launch and investigation into Elon Musk offering a million dollars a day to get people registered to vote turns out to have been predetermined and the people were selected ahead of time one of them works in Washington patent office.

Nah

 

[Fedor>Cain]

Well since I voted that she shouldn't be investigated in the poll it looks like all this panic wrestling you wrote here is worthless.

It's one thing to say she shouldn't be investigated....

But how do you feel about Trump, the president elect, making false claims about election fraud towards a pollster?

You think it's no big deal on Trump's end?

 

[Fedor>Cain]

I actually wouldn't mind turning over a few stones with these pollsters.

They were all so far off I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't deliberately teasing numbers to favor a particular confidence. Probably not, but show me. I'd like to see that all the decisions that led to this weren't a matter of questionable decisions regarding data sampling and mathematical weighting.

She literally posted a review of her data lol:

DocumentCloud

www.documentcloud.org

 

[PG29 red0 Jr]

Is it illegal for her to release a knowingly misleading poll?