The War Room Bet Thread V4

Best bet(s) settled in the last bet thread (see closed bets section in post 3)

  • Total voters
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sickc0d3r said:
Those two are leading the early states by a wide margin, and Biden’s getting dragged through the mud in a highly visible way for the next month or two. Black voters are playing it safe right now with Biden, but if he looks bad they’ll defect to Bernie I think.

All that to say, I’m not interested in betting against Bernie. Wai was in the other thread saying Pete will win the nom. that’s the bet I offered.
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<Gordonhat>

I cannot figure out which of Sanders and Buttigieg it will be. This leaves me where I was six months ago when I wrote that post.

Bloomberg's impact will be large, no matter what Little Nate Silver and Jack V Savage tell you. This will be one of the forces that kills Biden off, but it will also have a modest impact on Buttigieg. With the "moderate lane" so congested, the True Progressive can eke out a victory. On the other hand, Buttigieg is a God-mode candidate. I also believe that most polls are somewhat underestimating the youth turnout here, which is great for Sanders.

Anyway, my crystal ball was good enough to pluck out the top two in a crowded field of 24. I'm confident you won't find anyone else who saw the race this way that long ago.
 
waiguoren said:
<Gordonhat>

I cannot figure out which of Sanders and Buttigieg it will be. This leaves me where I was six months ago when I wrote that post.

Bloomberg's impact will be large, no matter what Little Nate Silver and Jack V Savage tell you. This will be one of the forces that kills Biden off, but it will also have a modest impact on Buttigieg. With the "moderate lane" so congested, the True Progressive can eke out a victory. On the other hand, Buttigieg is a God-mode candidate. I also believe that most polls are somewhat underestimating the youth turnout here, which is great for Sanders.

Anyway, my crystal ball was good enough to pluck out the top two in a crowded field of 24. I'm confident you won't find anyone else who saw the race this way that long ago.
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Couldn’t say if anyone saw Pete making this push, well done. But @Fawlty and few others definitely said he was a good candidate before anyone else here that I noticed.

I don’t think Pete can overcome black resistance unless he’s the clear front runner at some point. I think older blacks in general feel they have a lot at stake in this election and they’ll vote for whoever can beat Trump, But Pete has no traction at all with them. He’s not progressive enough for the younger bloc.

I completely agree young voters are going to be a bigger factor than usual and probably aren’t as well represented in polls.
 
sickc0d3r said:
Couldn’t say if anyone saw Pete making this push, well done. But @Fawlty and few others definitely said he was a good candidate before anyone else here that I noticed.

I don’t think Pete can overcome black resistance unless he’s the clear front runner at some point. I think older blacks in general feel they have a lot at stake in this election and they’ll vote for whoever can beat Trump, But Pete has no traction at all with them. He’s not progressive enough for the younger bloc.

I completely agree young voters are going to be a bigger factor than usual and probably aren’t as well represented in polls.
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I do believe that Fawlty saw him as a good candidate, but I doubt he was ever as bullish as I was. In fact, I'd guess Fawlty wrote at least one post downplaying Buttigieg's chances to be the nominee (something like, "this guy is really talented, too bad he can't win").

You are correct that Buttigieg is not "progessive" enough for most of the younger bloc. He will do very well among middle-aged and older voters.

I think black people mostly don't pay much attention at this stage, just like the average voter. White, college-educated voters and progressives are the vanguard here. You will see big shifts in the polling after Biden gets crushed in IA and NH. Biden will drop out fairly early, and I'm taking bets on that.
 
Sooooo, @HomerThompson is ban't.

But he's in a bunch of listed bets. Is another account going to step into the gap, or are the bets being voided?
 
Pseudo Sane said:
Sooooo, @HomerThompson is ban't.

But he's in a bunch of listed bets. Is another account going to step into the gap, or are the bets being voided?
Click to expand...

Posted bets with banned posters still get decided and affect the rankings. The reward/punishment is tied to the account so the banned poster wouldn’t have been able to give a punishment out if they won or receive one if they lost. That is just the stance of the thread. I believe someone mentioned they would uphold Homers bets but that’s their option.
 
Lead said:
I believe someone mentioned they would uphold Homers bets but that’s their option.
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"someone"

i.e., HomerThompson under his new account.
 
Lead said:
Posted bets with banned posters still get decided and affect the rankings. The reward/punishment is tied to the account so the banned poster wouldn’t have been able to give a punishment out if they won or receive one if they lost. That is just the stance of the thread. I believe someone mentioned they would uphold Homers bets but that’s their option.
Click to expand...

Homer should have to deal with the bets he made under his Homer account.
 
Sketch said:
Homer should have to deal with the bets he made under his Homer account.
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There’s a few reasons why converting the obligation to new accounts wouldn’t work well. Posters are free to hold up their end of the bet with their new accounts. The bet thread just doesn’t make a connection between the two accounts for purposes of rankings, etc
 
Lead said:
There’s a few reasons why converting the obligation to new accounts wouldn’t work well. Posters are free to hold up their end of the bet with their new accounts. The bet thread just doesn’t make a connection between the two accounts for purposes of rankings, etc
Click to expand...

Well it should. It's the same exact person.
 
waiguoren said:
You will see big shifts in the polling after Biden gets crushed in IA and NH. Biden will drop out fairly early, and I'm taking bets on that.
Click to expand...

I actually agree that this is likely to happen.
 
I'd like to be the first to congratulate our new, undisputed War Room betting champion: @Jack V Savage
 
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