The big PROBLEM with Topuria's path to victory that I can't get over

[The Legendary Scarface]

Help me understand.

Given both guys' skill sets and styles, anyone that's picking Ilia to win is picking him to knock Max out early, right?

You're banking on a guy who rarely gets hit completely clean without rolling with punches, with arguably the best chin in the sport, who's never been knocked out to get knocked out?

To me, this just seems like a silly thing to bank on. While it's definitely possible, it's a very low chance given what we already know about Max.

So, now, if you (I'm still asking you Topuria fans) know the highest statistical outcome is that this fight goes at least 3 rounds, and you also know Max is typically a guy who gets better and better as the fight goes on, overwhelming opponents with volume, and you also know that Ilia has never even shown you that he can even endure such a nasty pace, how on earth are you so confident he'll win?

Not trying to debate, I'm genuinely curious what the general consensus amongst those picking Topuria is in regards to his path to victory.

For me, history hasn't shown that Ilia is supposed to win this matchup, so I favor Max.

Also before y'all mention it, Max isn't getting held down by Ilia. He also has tremendous TD defense.

I know Ilia is probably the more skilled fighter, but this isn't a purely technical skills competition, it's an mma fight. Did we forget about things like experience, ringsmanship, durability, pace, relentlessness? Do we not value those anymore?

You think Ilia is prepared for a grueling 25 minute war where he's breathing heavy and defending 6 punch combinations? Shit is not that sweet... Calling it now, albeit with many differences, this has Conor Nate 1 vibes written all over it. Y'all gonna see.

So, those picking Topuria, EDUCATE ME please. How does your boy get the job done?

 

[World eater]

Max looked rough yesterday, the weight cut is obviously getting harder. It might be a huge factor.
Saying this as a Max fan.

 

[The Legendary Scarface]

Max looked rough yesterday, the weight cut is obviously getting harder. It might be a huge factor.
Saying this as a Max fan.

That's an unknown, we'll see. I'm interested in the style matchup.

 

[wildchild88]

Honestly this fight is a big unknown because Ilia hasn’t had many high profile fights yet. We’re still finding out how good he is.

He had a quick KO of Volk and a solid win over Emmett.

He could be developing into a super elite champ, or he could be just a top fighter who loses the title early.

I’m hoping he wins, but we still have a lot to learn about who he is as a fighter.

 

[blaseblase]

So, those picking Topuria, EDUCATE please. How does your boy get the job done?

They are assuming that because Topuria knocked out Volk in the 2nd round it means he will outstrike Max over the course of 5 rounds (despite the fact he didn't outstrike Volk when they fought).

 

[Harlekin]

50% say Ilia has better striking, 50% say Max has better striking. 98% of those know shit about striking.
Ilia is the better striker and way better grappler. Also heavier kicks.
Even if Max is the better striker, the grappling threat makes up for that.
Ilia's gas tank has me worried in rounds 4 and 5. Not that it is bad, but Max could gain the advantage here.

It's youth vs height though.
And yes Max doesn't look too good going down to 145 again. But he will make weight no problem. Looks thin enough.


Poirier landed 180 sig striker on Max, can't do that with Ilia.
Yes he is smaller than Poirier and doesn't hit as hard. But he has more power P4P

Volk landed a ton of baby leg kicks on Max.
Ilia takes legs away, he will land a few good ones, not enough, but good ones.

 

[Xoleth]

Topuria can also wrestle him

Even great chins can be cracked... especially at FW, where you cut a lot of weight.

I am not saying Topuria will win.
I am rooting for Max. I don't like Topuria.
But I think Topuria has more chances to win.
60-40.

 

[mangokush]

This fight will not be the striking match that everyone wants it to be

Max hasn't fought anyone who is a TD threat for a very long time

Ilia will take Max down and submit him early

 

[Rubios]

For me it's even simpler. Most of you train or have trained. Probably to a much higher degree than me.

Look at all the Volk-Max bouts. Yes, even the third one. For me, those fights displayed a level of skill, cage management, pace... Well, a level in which Topuria hasn't been even close yet.

But most think Top will win because he KO'ed """Volk"""' (who was in a strength of schedule and opposition not even Poatan matches moving up & down in two weight classes).

"We'll find out", I guess.

 

[Young Calf Kick]

What people are banking on is the fact that Max Holloway just can't keep getting away with being in dogfights without getting knocked out sooner or later.

Just about every Max fight, especially the last one against Gaethje I thought "this is going to be the one that finally cracks his chin" but then nope, he fuckin styles on Justin and gets a highlight KO for the ages himself.

Max' durability is so insane, it doesn't make any sense. But as he's getting older that durability will eventually start to fade and I think Topuria might be the one to finally knock him out.

Then again, I thought the same when he fought Gaethje and I thought the same when he fought Yair. So I'm not going to be surprised if Max once again defies the odds and gets through Topuria, who is a murderous puncher.

 

[The Legendary Scarface]

What people are banking on is the fact that Max Holloway just can't keep getting away with being in dogfights without getting knocked out sooner or later.

Just about every Max fight, especially the last one against Gaethje I thought "this is going to be the one that finally cracks his chin" but then nope, he fuckin styles on Justin and gets a highlight KO for the ages himself.

Max' durability is so insane, it doesn't make any sense. But as he's getting older that durability will eventually start to fade and I think Topuria might be the one to finally knock him out.

Then again, I thought the same when he fought Gaethje and I thought the same when he fought Yair. So I'm not going to be surprised if Max once again defies the odds and gets through Topuria, who is a murderous puncher.

But that's exactly my point.
So people are banking something that has never happened to happen.
Doesn't sound like logic to me.

IMO I think the big caveat to Ilia KOing him is that there is a small window when it needs to happen. If Ilia doesn't get the job done by say the 8 minute mark, some pop from his punches will be taken off, and at that point Max will start revving the rpms up to introduce Ilia to kind of fight HE'S NEVER SHOWN US HE CAN ENDURE.

This, albeit with many differences, in some respects does give me Conor - Nate 1 style matchup vibes.

 

[aogiri]

Picking Ilia via decision.
Can't forget that third fight against Volk where Max got outboxed for five rounds.
He looked great against Gaethje at LW, against a fighter much more wreckless and wild than Ilia.

I don't see Ilia knocking Max out though. Emmett took like 500 punches to the face and survived.

 

[Young Calf Kick]

But that's exactly my point.
So people are banking something that has never happened to happen.
Doesn't sound like logic to me.

IMO I think the big caveat to Ilia KOing him is that there is a small window when it needs to happen. If Ilia doesn't get the job done by say the 8 minute mark, some pop from his punches will be taken off, and at that point Max will start revving the rpms up to introduce Ilia to kind of fight HE'S NEVER SHOWN US HE CAN ENDURE.

This, albeit with many differences, in some respects does give me Conor - Nate 1 style matchup vibes.

Depends on what you describe as what exactly it is that has never happened.

Yes, Max has never been knocked out. But also a big yes that fighters who were known to be very durable have been knocked out later on in their career when they've had some mileage on them.

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

everyone talks about Ilia's power but i think Topuria's grappling is the key to him winning. well, unless Max gets old overnight. the grappling can help open Max up and settle Max's output down. it gives Max another thing to think about and allows Topuria to get more aggressive on the feet. it's a big win for him if he can ground Max for periods of the fight too. extra damage and submission threats.

saying all that, i'm still riding with my boy Max just because there's so many haters lol

 

[Steve Fox]

People talk about Max's cut but this guy doesn't look well either. Pale, sunken eyes, colorless lips..

 

[RockyLockridge]

So, those picking Topuria, EDUCATE ME please. How does your boy get the job done?

Illa is much faster I absolutely think he can outpoint max in a 5 round fight or slump him early. Ill was able to throw 300+ strikes against Emment and landed around 50%. He has the volume and output to keep up with max and make him tenative.

Max can absolutely lose a decision to illa. And while holding max down is unlikly. grappling is something that can be mixed into sway judges

Yair Made max wrestle. If illa can do that to max, max will have no where he can win the fight

 

[usernamee]

I'm curious how effectively Topuria will be able to get Max's back close to the cage.

Because if he isn't effective at all in doing so, and the fight remains in the center of the octagon I think that will make it very hard for Ilia.

 

[MarioLemieux]

I was sure Max would win against Topuria after he beat Justin but then I started watching more Topuria fight footage and started to lose confidence. Like him or hate him, Topuria is a monster. Very accurate, very powerful, very fast, good cardio and grappling. He's everything Conor fans ever dreamed he was when he was in his prime before we started to see his shortcomings and then some.

I think it's going to take someone with a great kicking game to beat him because he has a boxer stance and is heavy on the lead foot. Kicks will be his only weakness.

 

[Thy]

u be thinkin bout this too much, people say things. especially fighters. sometimes they make things happen. most of the time they don't.

 

[7 others]

Ilia probably would start of the fight with leg kicks to slow Max down and slowly pick Max apart

And knock downs after knock downs, Max probably would succumb to strikes or Ilia takes his back and sub him