The big PROBLEM with Topuria's path to victory that I can't get over

Most people picking Illia are doing so because of his grappling and expect him to at the very least attempt to mix things up.
 
How do you say someone has pretty good TDD when yair "no wrestling" rodrigues takes him down easly
 
mangokush said:
This fight will not be the striking match that everyone wants it to be

Max hasn't fought anyone who is a TD threat for a very long time

Ilia will take Max down and submit him early
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Where are you guys getting this idea Topuria is an elite wrestler? Only guy he's subbed in the UFC is Bryce Mitchell who he dropped first.
 
Max should be working in that front leg switch-kick Jai landed while in boxing range and dropped Topuria

Max has decent kicks when he wants and flicking the front round kick to the jaw mid-combination seems good to catch him off guard

I think Ilia has a superior skillset but Max has an incredible amount of high level experience and should feel comfortable in his range as Ilia isn’t a long rangy guy

Over 5-rounds I feel Topuria will find his timing and start landing damaging shots in what will be an epic war
 
I don't see it happening at all, I see Holloway winning a lopsided decision, 4-1 or something like that. I think he will cruise and throws tons and have much more output and Topuria will land a flush shot occasionally but not much. Holloway by unanimous decision, too accurate and skilled, fought way better guys
 
blaseblase said:
They are assuming that because Topuria knocked out Volk in the 2nd round it means he will outstrike Max over the course of 5 rounds (despite the fact he didn't outstrike Volk when they fought).
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Knocking him the fuck out with 1 strike should count as 'outstriking' someone.
 
With Josh lasting 5 rounds, where does the meme that Ilia has superpower power come from? I am not saying he does not but what am I missing?
 
The Legendary Scarface said:
But that's exactly my point.
So people are banking something that has never happened to happen.
Doesn't sound like logic to me.

IMO I think the big caveat to Ilia KOing him is that there is a small window when it needs to happen. If Ilia doesn't get the job done by say the 8 minute mark, some pop from his punches will be taken off, and at that point Max will start revving the rpms up to introduce Ilia to kind of fight HE'S NEVER SHOWN US HE CAN ENDURE.

This, albeit with many differences, in some respects does give me Conor - Nate 1 style matchup vibes.
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But i don't think ilia needs to ko Max. He just needs to hurt max with punches in the first or second round.
Max's confidence grows enormously when he thinks he can take your best punches. Happened in the first aldo fight.
 
The Legendary Scarface said:
Help me understand.

Given both guys' skill sets and styles, anyone that's picking Ilia to win is picking him to knock Max out early, right?

You're banking on a guy who rarely gets hit completely clean without rolling with punches, with arguably the best chin in the sport, who's never been knocked out to get knocked out?

To me, this just seems like a silly thing to bank on. While it's definitely possible, it's a very low chance given what we already know about Max.

So, now, if you (I'm still asking you Topuria fans) know the highest statistical outcome is that this fight goes at least 3 rounds, and you also know Max is typically a guy who gets better and better as the fight goes on, overwhelming opponents with volume, and you also know that Ilia has never even shown you that he can even endure such a nasty pace, how on earth are you so confident he'll win?

Not trying to debate, I'm genuinely curious what the general consensus amongst those picking Topuria is in regards to his path to victory.

For me, history hasn't shown that Ilia is supposed to win this matchup, so I favor Max.

Also before y'all mention it, Max isn't getting held down by Ilia. He also has tremendous TD defense.

I know Ilia is probably the more skilled fighter, but this isn't a purely technical skills competition, it's an mma fight. Did we forget about things like experience, ringsmanship, durability, pace, relentlessness? Do we not value those anymore?

You think Ilia is prepared for a grueling 25 minute war where he's breathing heavy and defending 6 punch combinations? Shit is not that sweet... Calling it now, albeit with many differences, this has Conor Nate 1 vibes written all over it. Y'all gonna see.

So, those picking Topuria, EDUCATE ME please. How does your boy get the job done?
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I'm picking Max, I do think Max will win the ater rounds, and Topuria hasn't been battle tested in the championship rounds yet, but Topuria gameplans well when it comes to giving feints and watching reactions, only to change it up as the fight continues.
I understand both sides of the equation, will Max's durability hold up going back down in weight? Will Topuria fade in the later rounds? Will Topuria get a takedown? It's definitely an intriguing fight that I'm hyped to see!
 
The Legendary Scarface said:
Help me understand.

Given both guys' skill sets and styles, anyone that's picking Ilia to win is picking him to knock Max out early, right?

You're banking on a guy who rarely gets hit completely clean without rolling with punches, with arguably the best chin in the sport, who's never been knocked out to get knocked out?

To me, this just seems like a silly thing to bank on. While it's definitely possible, it's a very low chance given what we already know about Max.

So, now, if you (I'm still asking you Topuria fans) know the highest statistical outcome is that this fight goes at least 3 rounds, and you also know Max is typically a guy who gets better and better as the fight goes on, overwhelming opponents with volume, and you also know that Ilia has never even shown you that he can even endure such a nasty pace, how on earth are you so confident he'll win?

Not trying to debate, I'm genuinely curious what the general consensus amongst those picking Topuria is in regards to his path to victory.

For me, history hasn't shown that Ilia is supposed to win this matchup, so I favor Max.

Also before y'all mention it, Max isn't getting held down by Ilia. He also has tremendous TD defense.

I know Ilia is probably the more skilled fighter, but this isn't a purely technical skills competition, it's an mma fight. Did we forget about things like experience, ringsmanship, durability, pace, relentlessness? Do we not value those anymore?

You think Ilia is prepared for a grueling 25 minute war where he's breathing heavy and defending 6 punch combinations? Shit is not that sweet... Calling it now, albeit with many differences, this has Conor Nate 1 vibes written all over it. Y'all gonna see.

So, those picking Topuria, EDUCATE ME please. How does your boy get the job done?
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I don't disagree with you, but I could see how illia theoretically beats Max.
In MMA good wrestling (and the threat of wrestling) supplements striking; this kind of goes the other way too.

Max has fantastic takedown defense, but it's probably harder to defend illia's takedowns if he is focusing on not getting knocked out.
I'm assuming Max's strategy is to move laterally and create space in order to keep illia from finding angles and cutting in. The problem is this fight isn't one dimensional.. if Max is having success in keeping illia from landing when he 'blitzes' inside, I could see illia mixing it up and shooting a takedown, which could surprise max.

But who knows
 
blaseblase said:
Where are you guys getting this idea Topuria is an elite wrestler? Only guy he's subbed in the UFC is Bryce Mitchell who he dropped first.
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Did y know some people follows sport more than "watching highlights on youtube"
 
wrb said:
With Josh lasting 5 rounds, where does the meme that Ilia has superpower power come from? I am not saying he does not but what am I missing?
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U have IQ of your own shoe sizd
 
I think Ilia will have an extremely wrestling based gameplan, that's what would make a lot of sense
 
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