In order to win the Presidential Election, a GOP candidate must win about 2/3 of the white vote and about 30% of the minority vote in fall.
Mitt Romney: 59% of White vote, 17% of non-White vote.
John McCain: 55% of White vote, 18% of non-White vote.
GWB 2004: 58% of White vote, 26% of non-Whites (would not suffice today due to differences in relative makeup of electorate)
GWB 2000: 55% of White vote, 22% of non-Whites (would not suffice today due to differences in relative makeup of electorate)
The electorate only is 69% White these days. So Trump would need a massive share of the White vote, way above of what any of his predecessors have been able to generate. And he STILL needs that minority vote.
But who is going to vote for him?
Blacks? Voted 93% for Obama in 2012, 95% for Obama in 2008, but also 88% for Kerry in 2004 and 90% for Gore in 2000. The Black vote is gone.
Asians? Insignificant as a group in size and have increasingly voted Democratic.
Hispanics? Voted 44% Bush in 2004, that was the peak. Only 27% Romney, 31% McCain. Will not be enough without the Black vote - and that was BEFORE they were called thieves and rapists. So take this recent poll:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ives-among-hispanics-rise-worst-in-gop-field/
according to which 7 in 10 Hispanics have a "very unfavorable" view of Trump and 8 in 10 at least "unfavorable".
Trump would get dismal voting percentages by Hispanics. Trump is simply not a candidate who is able to win.
The funny thing is, if somehow the GOP voters wake up and realize they fucked up and elect either Cruz (no comment) or Rubio...Trump will likely go independent, grab 5 to 10 percent of the vote and fuck their campaign up.
But back to topic: Please do explain how Trump wins. I just don't see it as a realistic possibility.
