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International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15
- Thread starter Strychnine
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Yes, after Biden's administration corrected his blunder. Biden never ran the US as president. Key people in his cabinet made all the major decisions.
No, that 'clown' has been posting in here since before the election results. I did not vote for Trump. Imagine a world where Kamala Harris is president. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea would be expanding their border. Costly war for Russia or not, Ukraine will lose this conflict in due time. Only a clown would think otherwise.
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How about the videos that push Ukrainian propaganda, like the ones @Strychnine likes to post?
Anything anti-Ukraine is obviously false and Russian propaganda. Like the way the liberal media portrayed Joe Biden with superior cognitive ability - even though he refused to take a test. He knew he would fail it and would not go public with the information.
Do you really see this conflict from a neutral point of view? No. You and others have just fallen into the belief that because Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia is the bad guy and will lose. Russia has to lose right? That is how the universe works? What happens after Ukraine loses the conflict? It will be like finding out that Joe Biden was a complete fuck up for 4 years. You won't be able to hide the truth anymore.
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Can't imagine why anyone would want to be ruled by Russia....
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Zelensky also admits russians are quiet tonight and publicly asks Putin to use the three day easter truce as an opportunity for extending it to a full 30 day ceasefire.
They did a pow swap too today so there's some hope the list of good news continues.
They did a pow swap too today so there's some hope the list of good news continues.
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Russia's artillery shell situation is much worse than RUSI estimates. Probably not popular on any side to shit on RUSI but...
Their numbers just don't add up. Not even close to adding up. It's a couple months old and I can't find anything more recent but it's horrible math.
understandingwar.org
If Russia is producing 250k artillery shells per month and firing 300k shells per month...Where are the 4-6 million shells NK sent?
Let's calculate as though NK sent them at the start to be generous and every one of those shells not produced by Russia is from NK and not their own stockpile.
36x50k = 1.8 million shells.
So NK is sending more than what is used? 2.2 million at the low end?
Yet you also report that NK shells make up 60% of all shells fired by Russia?
How the fuck does that add up?
If Russia produces 83% of all the artillery shells they fire each month...
How on earth does NK make up 60% of shells fired each month when Russia meets 83% of artillery demand?
These numbers aren't just a little bit off. We're talking an astronomical overestimation of Russian production numbers here.
Their numbers just don't add up. Not even close to adding up. It's a couple months old and I can't find anything more recent but it's horrible math.
Institute for the Study of War
The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine. Russia will likely face a number of
Let's calculate as though NK sent them at the start to be generous and every one of those shells not produced by Russia is from NK and not their own stockpile.
36x50k = 1.8 million shells.
So NK is sending more than what is used? 2.2 million at the low end?
Yet you also report that NK shells make up 60% of all shells fired by Russia?
How the fuck does that add up?
If Russia produces 83% of all the artillery shells they fire each month...
How on earth does NK make up 60% of shells fired each month when Russia meets 83% of artillery demand?
These numbers aren't just a little bit off. We're talking an astronomical overestimation of Russian production numbers here.
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Well.
Looks that majority of supplies NK had sent were packed in 20 ft and 40 ft containers.
Maybe estimated calculations had been done by assuming that containers had just arty ammo .....however North Korea easily might had packed in some % of containers for example explosives, propellants etc ....without shells?
Firing rate reduction might be also if barrels are worn out etc reasons.....
Maybe they does have problems to supply ammo till howitzers?
Looks that majority of supplies NK had sent were packed in 20 ft and 40 ft containers.
Maybe estimated calculations had been done by assuming that containers had just arty ammo .....however North Korea easily might had packed in some % of containers for example explosives, propellants etc ....without shells?
Firing rate reduction might be also if barrels are worn out etc reasons.....
Maybe they does have problems to supply ammo till howitzers?
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You need to read the article again. I don't know where you are coming up with those numbers. Also, you are mixing data from 2022 and 2024.
- March 2024 -- NATO intelligence estimated that the Russian DIB was producing about 250,000 artillery shells per month.
- Russian forces' rate of fire since June 2022 has been "fairly consistent" between 7,000 and 16,000 rounds per day, with an average of about 10,000 per day or about 300,000 per month.
- Up to 60 percent of the artillery and mortar shells that Russian forces have been firing as of December 2024 have reportedly come from North Korea.
- Russia’s previous 5:1 artillery advantage ratio over Ukraine has been reduced to 1.5:1 as of December 2024 and will likely continue to decrease provided current trends continue.
- North Korea reportedly increased its domestic production of 152mm shells in 2024, but the North Korean shells that Russian forces are currently firing are reportedly of a low quality, with about half of them proving to be duds.
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@Cid
April 2025.
www.businessinsider.com
August 2024.
responsiblestatecraft.org
"Indeed, Russia is outproducing all of NATO and the U.S. in terms of ammunition, rockets, and tanks, despite having a 2023 defense budget of just $100 billion and a GDP of $2 trillion." -- This is how Russia will defeat Ukraine.
April 2025.
Russia on track to build artillery shell stockpile triple the size of the US's and Europe's combined: top US general
Gen. Chris Cavoli says Russia is rebuilding its forces swiftly, including by producing 10 times as many tanks as the US each year.
www.businessinsider.com
Why Russia is far outpacing US/Nato in weapons production
No forward thinking and a defense industry that only thinks of profits, are a bad mix
responsiblestatecraft.org
"Indeed, Russia is outproducing all of NATO and the U.S. in terms of ammunition, rockets, and tanks, despite having a 2023 defense budget of just $100 billion and a GDP of $2 trillion." -- This is how Russia will defeat Ukraine.
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January 2025.
ecfr.eu
There are human activities in which both sides can win. War is not one of them. Either Ukraine wins this war or Russia does. Ukraine’s former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba says bluntly that unless the current trajectory is changed, “we will lose this war.”
Ukraine's "inherent weakness is that it depends on others for funding and arms", wrote the BBC's international editor, Jeremy Bowen. On the other hand, Russia "makes most of its own weapons" and is "buying drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea" with no limitations on how they are used.
Russia has significant battlefield advantages over Ukraine. Russia has more than three times the population of Ukraine, and its war effort is being sustained by strong support from Russian society. The Russian economy has played a large part in sustaining Russia’s war effort. Despite western sanctions and high inflation, the economic outlook remains fairly strong. According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service, GDP growth was reported as 4.1% for 2024, albeit fueled to a large extent by military spending.
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
ecfr.eu
There are human activities in which both sides can win. War is not one of them. Either Ukraine wins this war or Russia does. Ukraine’s former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba says bluntly that unless the current trajectory is changed, “we will lose this war.”
Ukraine's "inherent weakness is that it depends on others for funding and arms", wrote the BBC's international editor, Jeremy Bowen. On the other hand, Russia "makes most of its own weapons" and is "buying drones from Iran and ammunition from North Korea" with no limitations on how they are used.
Russia has significant battlefield advantages over Ukraine. Russia has more than three times the population of Ukraine, and its war effort is being sustained by strong support from Russian society. The Russian economy has played a large part in sustaining Russia’s war effort. Despite western sanctions and high inflation, the economic outlook remains fairly strong. According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service, GDP growth was reported as 4.1% for 2024, albeit fueled to a large extent by military spending.
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Russia's artillery shell situation is much worse than RUSI estimates. Probably not popular on any side to shit on RUSI but...
Their numbers just don't add up. Not even close to adding up. It's a couple months old and I can't find anything more recent but it's horrible math.
If Russia is producing 250k artillery shells per month and firing 300k shells per month...Where are the 4-6 million shells NK sent?Institute for the Study of War
The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine. Russia will likely face a number of
Let's calculate as though NK sent them at the start to be generous and every one of those shells not produced by Russia is from NK and not their own stockpile.
36x50k = 1.8 million shells.
So NK is sending more than what is used? 2.2 million at the low end?
Yet you also report that NK shells make up 60% of all shells fired by Russia?
How the fuck does that add up?
If Russia produces 83% of all the artillery shells they fire each month...
How on earth does NK make up 60% of shells fired each month when Russia meets 83% of artillery demand?
These numbers aren't just a little bit off. We're talking an astronomical overestimation of Russian production numbers here.
ISW are a bunch of incompetent retards, despite their name they're mostly propaganda. These are the same idiots who were claiming the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive could still succeed in August when it couldn't even break through the first of 5 defensive lines. RUSI still has a few people with working brains, ISW does not.
Institute for the Study of War
The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far. Ukrainian forces attempted a limited mechanized penetration of prepared Russian defenses in the south in early to mid-June, but failed to break
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I think both ISW and RUSI have good and bad writers. It is a think tank. Opinions. Like an asshole, everyone has one and an opinion. Many having spent their entire adult life in academia with 'zero' military experience. A few are retired military and their view is what really counts in my opinion. ISW offers some great detailed maps of the conflict.
Take the following article from RUSI:
Consolidating Europe’s Eastern Frontiers: the Options for Ukraine and the Continent
Come a ceasefire in Ukraine, the border to Europe’s East will remain a line of tension with no end in sight, necessitating new concepts for collective defence.
www.rusi.org
No shit!
That has been the case since 1991. No, you don't need a PhD to reach that conclusion. Leaving out the tensions with China, Iran, and North Korea.
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Who is winning the war in Ukraine?
Russia accused of 'stalling' ceasefire negotiations as Kremlin looks to ramp up recruitment and launch new offensives in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia
theweek.com
What a Russian 'victory' would actually look like
The discussion has always centered on alarmist predictions rather than Moscow's real intentions and capabilities
responsiblestatecraft.org
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I think both ISW and RUSI have good and bad writers. It is a think tank. Opinions. Like an asshole, everyone has one and an opinion. Many having spent their entire adult life in academia with 'zero' military experience. A few are retired military and their view is what really counts in my opinion. ISW offers some great detailed maps of the conflict.
Take the following article from RUSI:
"Come a ceasefire in Ukraine, the border to Europe’s East will remain a line of tension with no end in sight, necessitating new concepts for collective defense."Consolidating Europe’s Eastern Frontiers: the Options for Ukraine and the Continent
Come a ceasefire in Ukraine, the border to Europe’s East will remain a line of tension with no end in sight, necessitating new concepts for collective defence.
No shit!
That has been the case since 1991. No, you don't need a PhD to reach that conclusion. Leaving out the tensions with China, Iran, and North Korea.
RUSI does have a few good writers left, ISW does not and never did since it's been a propaganda outlet from the time it was founded. Let's take a look at who they really are.
ISW: Defeatist propaganda keeping ‘us’ from a Ukraine military victory
The neo-con bred and led think tank is the most media referenced organization in town, and that’s dangerous
responsiblestatecraft.org
Such reporting is unsurprising when we consider the specific nature of ISW as a think tank. Funded by important military contractors in America’s military industrial complex such as General Dynamics, DynCorps International, and CACI International, ISW is also a creation of the “Kagan industrial complex.” It was founded by Kimberly Kagan, the wife of military historian Frederick Kagan, who in turn is the brother of Robert Kagan — co-founder of the infamous neo-conservative think tank the Project for a New American Century. It would be remiss not to mention that Robert Kagan is married to none other than Victoria Nuland, who was until recently heading up the U.S. State Department’s policy on Ukraine and Europe.
Given the hawkish and neoconservative ideological bent of ISW’s leadership, one would not expect their stance on the war in Ukraine to change even in the light of new developments. Yet, its recent report “Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success” is a remarkable double down. Not only does it present the recent deterioration of Ukraine’s military prospects as a Kremlin disinformation campaign, it is also a manifesto for military escalation.
You won't get factual info or analysis from an outfit run by these clowns, that's like asking the KKK what it thinks about black people.
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Easter truce over, ruski telegram as usual bla bla bla blame and complain about Ukr braking the rules in Gorlovka, Donetsk etc, Ukr same rhetoric for the opposite side. In the diplomatic sector one good thing Ukr has done is it has learnt that they should beg for ceasefire all the time (knowing Rus can't accept it anyway) and Putin has the society mostly against any ceasefire whatsoever, those people are bloodthirsty God damn it, there's slim near zero chance this stops any time soon
