International Putin signs mutual defence pact with North Korea, heralds 'New World Order' in meeting with Iranian president

When trying to understand world events through this realist lens, the sovereignty of weaker states doesn't matter as much. Obviously it should matter but it doesn't.

And here is the crux of the issue, you think it doesn't matters as much, its pretty clear from the "imagine if China put bases on Canada or Mexico" without even putting into the equation that it takes two to tango.

Mexico or Canada would never just let a foreign nation set up bases on their country because there is no incentive to do so, you are correct nations act according to their interests and the USA has made sure its on the interests of said critical nations to be friendly with the US.

have to realize that we actually live in the "realist" scenario where force, self-interest,

And precisely because of this "realist" scenario and the Zimmerman Telegram is that the US has made sure that no matter how awful Mexican government may be, they will still find ways to keep relationships cordial.

This is what Russia failed to achieve in the post-Soviet collapse, they believed that by murdering unfriendly politicians and supporting satraps they could keep other nations Russian friendly but it blew up in their face.

In a "REALIST" world, Russia is not a rival for the West and as you pointed out "weaker nations interests aren't as important", well yeah, that's why we are here, Russia bited more than they could chew, pissed off most of their neighbors who ran into NATO for protection and instead of rectifying course, the stupidly pushed more and more.

Now Ukraine is on a fight for survival and quoting you

"domination and survival are what shape inter-state behavior."

So yeah, Ukraine is behaving exactly as expected for a nation that was pushed to the brink, which in turn allowed NATO to expand, Russia shouldn't had been so hostile to its neighbors.
 
And here is the crux of the issue, you think it doesn't matters as much, its pretty clear from the "imagine if China put bases on Canada or Mexico" without even putting into the equation that it takes two to tango.

Mexico or Canada would never just let a foreign nation set up bases on their country because there is no incentive to do so, you are correct nations act according to their interests and the USA has made sure its on the interests of said critical nations to be friendly with the US.



And precisely because of this "realist" scenario and the Zimmerman Telegram is that the US has made sure that no matter how awful Mexican government may be, they will still find ways to keep relationships cordial.

This is what Russia failed to achieve in the post-Soviet collapse, they believed that by murdering unfriendly politicians and supporting satraps they could keep other nations Russian friendly but it blew up in their face.

In a "REALIST" world, Russia is not a rival for the West and as you pointed out "weaker nations interests aren't as important", well yeah, that's why we are here, Russia bited more than they could chew, pissed off most of their neighbors who ran into NATO for protection and instead of rectifying course, the stupidly pushed more and more.

Now Ukraine is on a fight for survival and quoting you

"domination and survival are what shape inter-state behavior."

So yeah, Ukraine is behaving exactly as expected for a nation that was pushed to the brink, which in turn allowed NATO to expand, Russia shouldn't had been so hostile to its neighbors.
But what about Vietnam?
 
But what about Vietnam?

"Weak nations must obey stronger nations, that's realist"
"Well Russia is much weaker than the West, they must behave thenaccording to that logic."
"No... not like that".
 
"Weak nations must obey stronger nations, that's realist"
"Well Russia is much weaker than the West, they must behave thenaccording to that logic."
"No... not like that".
"I care deeply about the people of Ukraine, which is why I think they should sit down and accept destruction."
 
You've been reading and watching videos of Ukraine's long range drone strikes from the second week of the war?

Despite them developing the capability only a year ago?

Those are two of the 80 or so successful strikes since the drone campaign started. The first triggered 21 readings of seismic activity.

Lowball estimate for next year if it continues is 500 successful strikes probably a fair bit more. US dumped 800M into the production of them. Lithuania started it and more countries will directly fund them.

3 years of warfare but they've only been able to strike Russia regularly for about 8 months now.

This is far from an unwinnable position.

You don't have to beat militaries conventionally. If you did America would be undefeated.

Horrible as it is 3 years is a fraction of the time it took to for the countries I mentioned to kick out America.

All biases aside of who I want to prevail..

If Kamala wins and this war continues there will be well over 20k of those drones sent into Russia in 2025.

Those videos were under 200. Ammo dump was high priority and got over 100 drones but the oil depots only 30 maybe.

Right now Ukraine is in an infinitely better position than any of the countries to kick out America this last century.


You can not say with any confidence either side will win right now unless you know the results of the next US election.

I meant that I've been seeing footage of Ukrainian military destroying their Russian counterparts since the beginning. I didn't realize this was a brand-new weapon. So this is definitely it, huh? Ukraine's gonna beat Russia with super badass drones?

And yeah, you can beat a great power in an unconventional war as long as you're willing to make tremendous sacrifices. Vietnam lost about 2 million people to beat the US. I'm not sure Ukraine is willing to do the same and of course, a victory isn't guaranteed even if they are willing to.

Russia is an authoritarian state, not a democracy like the US, so if Putin and the Russian elites get really desperate, they can start throwing more and more people in without caring what their population thinks. They could also be compelled to use nuclear weapons.

I guess we'll wait and see but continuing the military route seems too risky for everyone involved.
 
In a "REALIST" world, Russia is not a rival for the West and as you pointed out "weaker nations interests aren't as important", well yeah, that's why we are here, Russia bited more than they could chew, pissed off most of their neighbors who ran into NATO for protection and instead of rectifying course, the stupidly pushed more and more.

Russia wasn't a rival for the West during the 90s and early 2000s. By the late 2000s, they were back to being a formidable military force and became a minor power. By now just about everyone accepts that we live in a world with three powers: the US, Russia, and China.

So by the 2010s, Russia started acting like a regional power and set the limits of NATO expansion at Ukraine. They made it clear they weren't gonna accept further expansion and the West didn't listen.
Now Ukraine is on a fight for survival and quoting you

"domination and survival are what shape inter-state behavior."

So yeah, Ukraine is behaving exactly as expected for a nation that was pushed to the brink, which in turn allowed NATO to expand, Russia shouldn't had been so hostile to its neighbors.

Of course Ukraine is doing what it has to do. I've never suggested they were being irrational.

But it also got put in this situation by NATO. They don't get invaded if the West doesn't court make inroads with them so their fate rests mostly with what NATO decides.
 
But it also got put in this situation by NATO. They don't get invaded if the West doesn't court make inroads with them so their fate rests mostly with what NATO decides.
The only thing that could have kept Russia out.... would have been being in NATO lol. That's why it exists. To keep Russia from doing exactly what it is doing right now lmao
 
I meant that I've been seeing footage of Ukrainian military destroying their Russian counterparts since the beginning. I didn't realize this was a brand-new weapon. So this is definitely it, huh? Ukraine's gonna beat Russia with super badass drones?

And yeah, you can beat a great power in an unconventional war as long as you're willing to make tremendous sacrifices. Vietnam lost about 2 million people to beat the US. I'm not sure Ukraine is willing to do the same and of course, a victory isn't guaranteed even if they are willing to.

Russia is an authoritarian state, not a democracy like the US, so if Putin and the Russian elites get really desperate, they can start throwing more and more people in without caring what their population thinks. They could also be compelled to use nuclear weapons.

I guess we'll wait and see but continuing the military route seems too risky for everyone involved.
Did you see the ghadaffi footage?

Dictators get a lot more control than democracies but democratic leaders that fuck up generally get a corporate gig rather than some anal loving with a bayonet.

The drones will play a large role especially if they can continue to strike large targets.
They struck three of those ammo dumps from the first video in a week.

Ultimately Ukraine can strike at the heart of the Russian war machine. While the vast majority of the production capability of Ukraine's military lays in allied countries that Russia can not touch.

Drones really are super weapons you sarcastically stated. Quite literally revolutionising warfare in front of our eyes.

They're not the only problem Russia faces. Soviet vehicle stockpiles are running very low as well. 1-2 years before depletion of most vehicles.

Both sides have problems. US election obviously will play massive role.
 
Russia wasn't a rival for the West during the 90s and early 2000s. By the late 2000s, they were back to being a formidable military force and became a minor power. By now just about everyone accepts that we live in a world with three powers: the US, Russia, and China.
No we don't Russia is not a world power, only China and the US can be called great powers and the EU if the EU acted as a group.


So by the 2010s, Russia started acting like a regional power and set the limits of NATO expansion at Ukraine. They made it clear they weren't gonna accept further expansion and the West didn't listen.
Why would the West listen to a weak power? in your world only the strong matter, so only China can set up limits.


Of course Ukraine is doing what it has to do. I've never suggested they were being irrational.
Of course

But it also got put in this situation by NATO. They don't get invaded if the West doesn't court make inroads with them so their fate rests mostly with what NATO decides.
Really? Russia never threatened Ukraine before? as in trying to murder their presidents or supporting separatists?

Ukraine would have never tried to join NATO without Russian aggression and interference in Ukraine's domestic politics
 
All the ranting and raving aside, it seems, friend, that you still miss the base point that the reason Russia is "threatened" by "NATO expansion" is specifically because it prevents them from invading and occupying their neighbors lol. You're complaining that people are putting locks on their door to keep out the burglars, and when anyone tries to point this out, it always comes back to "well America blah blah blah got to do it, so why can't Russia?" completely disregarding that Ukraine is its own country and really really doesn't want to be looted and occupied by Vladimir Putin lmao
Oh woe is the tankie, America is finally on the right side of an issue! The audacity! The outrage! Inconceivable!
This, I'm usually in agreement with 99% of possums posts, but he's dead wrong in this case.
 
Did you see the ghadaffi footage?

Dictators get a lot more control than democracies but democratic leaders that fuck up generally get a corporate gig rather than some anal loving with a bayonet.

The drones will play a large role especially if they can continue to strike large targets.
They struck three of those ammo dumps from the first video in a week.

Ultimately Ukraine can strike at the heart of the Russian war machine. While the vast majority of the production capability of Ukraine's military lays in allied countries that Russia can not touch.

Drones really are super weapons you sarcastically stated. Quite literally revolutionising warfare in front of our eyes.

They're not the only problem Russia faces. Soviet vehicle stockpiles are running very low as well. 1-2 years before depletion of most vehicles.

Both sides have problems. US election obviously will play massive role.

Dictators that actually want to survive flee to other countries when things get hot. Ghadaffi decided to stay put for his own reasons. In any case, there doesn't seem to be significant opposition to Putin within Russia. He shut down a few demonstrators early on and you haven't heard much from that side since. The economic sanctions have certainly not worked so that definitely helps in keeping the population calm.

And apparently, Russian elites are as militaristic as him, if not worse. This is one of the things I learned from that Mearsheimer-Bildt debate.

Any realistic settlement at this point is full of problems. This op-ed is great and touches on your points as well

 
No we don't Russia is not a world power, only China and the US can be called great powers and the EU if the EU acted as a group.

Of course it's not at the Soviet Union's old level, and well below the West, but it's certainly a power, especially militarily.

What country could fight against a fully supported NATO-backed country for 3 years and still not lose? Definitely not Iran, China, North Korea or any other Western foe.

Why would the West listen to a weak power? in your world only the strong matter, so only China can set up limits.

Russia is the weakest of the current great powers it has nukes.

Really? Russia never threatened Ukraine before? as in trying to murder their presidents or supporting separatists?

Ukraine would have never tried to join NATO without Russian aggression and interference in Ukraine's domestic politics

Not interested in rehashing this for the 30th time. Agree to disagree.
 
Of course it's not at the Soviet Union's old level, and well below the West, but it's certainly a power, especially militarily.
What country could fight against a fully supported NATO-backed country for 3 years and still not lose? Definitely not Iran, China, North Korea or any other Western foe.
Fully supported by NATO?

North Korea has given Russia more ammo than all of NATO combined has given Ukraine.

Russia is the weakest of the current great powers it has nukes.
Nukes is the only reason they have yet to be taught a lesson like Saddam did, but nukes don't give them the ability to dictate the West any red lines in a "realist" world scenario.
 
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The only thing that could have kept Russia out.... would have been being in NATO lol. That's why it exists. To keep Russia from doing exactly what it is doing right now lmao
I totally understand NATO not allowing Ukraine in before all the reforms were completed but in hindsight they made a massive mistake.

When the West and Russia both pushed for Ukraine to give up its nukes, Ukraine should have demanded and been given a full security agreement with NATO or the UN, to do so.

NO, not NATO membership (yet) but a promise if they agree to disarm that they would be protected from attack within their borders.

I cannot even see how that ask would be seen as unreasonable when it was the West and Russia asking them to voluntarily disarm.
 
And apparently, Russian elites are as militaristic as him, if not worse. This is one of the things I learned from that Mearsheimer-Bildt debate.
You going to try to convince us that this is also the Wests fault?

Every leader in Russia is a murderous despot. Here's why it's all the fault of the west - A story in alternative facts by possum Jenkins.
 
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What country could fight against a fully supported NATO-backed country for 3 years and still not lose? Definitely not Iran, China, North Korea or any other Western foe.
Ah yes, Russia the true underdog lol
 
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North Korea has given Russia more ammo than all of NATO combined has given Ukraine.

Bizarre claim. Please state your source.

NATO has been arming and training Ukrainian militaries since 2014 and since 2022 has given them hundreds of billions in assistance.

My sources:


https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/


Nukes is the only reason they have yet to be taught a lesson like Saddam did, but nukes don't give them the ability to dictate the West any red lines in a "realist" world scenario.

You might not like it but that's exactly what they did. They drew a red line, went to war when it was crossed, and have drawn the West into more or less a stalemate for 3 years.
 
Bizarre claim. Please state your source.

NATO has been arming and training Ukrainian militaries since 2014 and since 2022 has given them hundreds of billions in assistance.

My sources:


https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9477/




You might not like it but that's exactly what they did. They drew a red line, went to war when it was crossed, and have drawn the West into more or less a stalemate for 3 years.
I feel like something pretty big happened in 2014. Can't quite recall though.
Also, for the 900,000,000 time, the red line shit is so fucking stupid. Nobody crossed a red line. Russia -specifically Vladimir Putin- just want to rob and destroy Ukraine, period. They weren't provoked. Do us all a favor and say that out loud a few times. They weren't provoked. Nobody provoked them, they aren't defending themselves, they aren't fighting for "security concerns". Ukraine is a juicy apple sitting on a crate and Putin simply wants it because he is a greedy megalomaniac
 
Bizarre claim. Please state your source.

North Korea has given Russia around 5 million shells.


Europe on the other hand struggles to get Ukraine 1 million

 
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