This is going to get me hated, but I go with Stipe.
Fedor has power, crazy speed, and godly subs. That said, Stipe has the wrestling to keep it standing, a crazy pace that left Overeem running scared, enough power to KO anyone on earth with a short right hand, and god-tier gameplanning.
I don't think he'd go to the ground with Fedor. This is how I think it plays on the feet:
- Fedor goes for his trademark blitz. Stipe survives (remember, he walked through shots from Hunt). There is a chance Fedor wins via KO here, but I think it's more likely Stipe survives via not being an idiot like Zulu and Timmeh.
- Stipe walks Fedor down, landing shots with his superior boxing. Fedor lands shots too, especially kicks which Stipe hates, but Stipe is landing more and with more accuracy.
- Frustrated, Fedor goes for a throw, but Stipe stays standing and responds with accurate punches.
- Since I personally don't see Stipe wanting to take the fight to the ground, I see Stipe being cautious and not looking for a finish unless he smells blood. It'll probably end with a UD for Stipe, but I can definitely see Stipe going for a finish in the later rounds when Fedor is tired and less powerful.
IF Stipe decides to wrestle also then he'll focus on position over everything else since he won't want to risk getting subbed. I think he has the size and the smarts (MOST important asset when discussing Stipe and his team) to lay n pray Fedor if he wanted to, but I don't believe he'll want to do that for a long time (As in, he won't want to do a GnP fest like in the Hunt fight). Maybe a takedown here or there to more securely win rounds.
Feel free to break my post apart. I just don't see Fedor having the advantage anywhere except subs and I don't see him taking Stipe down.