Pre-fight Discussion UFC FN Rozenstruick v. Gaziev, Sat. 3/2, Prelims 1:30 PM ET, Main card 4:00 PM ESPN+

[Luthien]

Always with the shining TAP

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

The Ultimate Fighting Championship tucks its tail and heads back to the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas with a show that it planned on delivering to Saudi Arabia, only to be rejected for lack of quality. From a betting perspective, this event is bananas, with eight of the 11 fights seeing one fighter favored at -300 or above, so wager at your peril. Check out what is brewing on the UFC Fight Night 238 edition of Prime Picks, where we pour with one favorite who is going to smash, add some violence with a pair of feisty flyweights and sprinkle in a little magic for a titanic upset.

Shamil Gaziev Wins Inside Distance (-125)​

While he chose to slug it out with Martin Buday, wrestling makes Gaziev a potential threat at heavyweight, as he turned 34 earlier this month. The KHK MMA fighter jumped at the chance to play on the ground with Greg Velasco in his contract-winning performance, although he got there by dropping Velasco with his very first punch. As evidenced by many past outings, Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s main weakness is his ground game, which Gaziev will be more than willing to exploit. Even though this is his second UFC fight, and he is already headlining, he can rise to the occasion if he does not get lured into a slugfest and caught.

Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 238 ‘Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev’

Sherdog’s Jay Pettry pours with one favorite he expects to smash, adds some violence with a pair of feisty flyweights and sprinkles in a little magic for a titanic upset.

www.sherdog.com

On some sportsbooks, the line for the fight ending with a knockout on either side is -330. Even as the underdog, Rozenstruik prevails via strikes is a paltry +165. With Gaziev’s ability to snatch up a quick rear-naked choke after punishing his foe on the ground, it may be safer to pick him getting the stoppage rather than delving into plus money to pinpoint which kind. The Bahraini, by way of Russia, should have a fair size advantage, so once he gets on top, good luck with the rest. Of the two, Rozenstruik may have the better cardio reserves, and he is the only one who can claim he fought five rounds before. Still, with a chin that takes just as much as it gives lately and a giant hole in his defensive grappling, the favorite is favored for a reason.

It is a little unfair to state that if Gaziev lands a takedown, he will win. The last three men to put Rozenstruik on his back all did beat him, although Alistair Overeem and Junior Albini did not find the same successes. Rozenstruik will undoubtedly come prepared for the takedown. Gaziev might have to hustle and flow to find a different angle rather than a straight double as he pushes the Suriname native against the cage. It also might be unfair to give Rozenstruik a puncher’s chance because, as he has displayed on more than one occasion, it is quite a punch he offers. Keeping his back away from the cage, mixing in kicks, and constantly moving will be what Rozenstruik needs to do to prevail. However, with five rounds to work, unless Gaziev gasses while searching for a first-round finish, he should have enough time to get “Bigi Boy” down and procure a finish.

Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Ends Inside Distance (-150)​

Flyweights will fight fast and furiously on the main card, and Perez vs. Mokaev is no exception. While Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg promises some fun action, this one practically guarantees it. Former title challenger Perez has had some very high highs and some exceptionally low lows as a UFC fighter thus far, working his way towards a crack at Deiveson Figueiredo’s throne only to be cast away in less than two minutes. The Tachi Palace Fights mainstay comes out like he was shot out of a cannon and is capable of both quick-strike knockouts and speedy submissions. His opponent, Mokaev, is more geared towards the latter, and it remains to be seen if his power will play a factor. One way or another, one of these 125ers will likely lose by stoppage, and it should be wild until that happens.

As some fighters come to the UFC, they tend to get slowed down by opposition and find they cannot get the finish as often as they used to. That is not the case for Perez, as he has only heard the final horn twice in nine outings since joining the roster. On both sides of the equation, six of his walks to the Octagon have ended violently within one minute. Perez is susceptible to getting caught early, but that may have to do with the elite competition he faced: name the easy out between Joseph Benavidez, Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja. This fight will show whether Mokaev is a contender or a pretender, at least for the time being, and it is one that Perez could spectacularly win just as easily as he finds himself staring at the lights in 90 seconds.

Bekzat Almakhan (+750)​

How could anyone in good conscience throw their hard-earned cash on an Unknown Fighter making his debut against an unbeaten fighter named Nurmagomedov? After all, Umar Nurmagomedov introduced himself to UFC fans by styling on Sergey Morozov in 2021. To underdog Almakhan, beating that name was old hat, as he had beaten Morozov in a three-rounder three years earlier under rules that limited grappling. It might be a real long shot—a win for Almakhan would clock in right around the biggest betting upset in UFC history—but with his punching power and the unknowns swirling around him, the 26-year-old could shock the world.

While hoisting the famed name of a certain former Russian lightweight champ, the rise of this particular Nurmagomedov has hardly been meteoric despite his performances. After four lopsided wins in the Octagon, where he displayed not only his acumen for grappling but also his ability to lay waste to bantamweights on the feet, Nurmagomedov still does not have a top-10 opponent and has only averaged a little over one fight per year. In his athletic prime right now, he will have to contend with a heavy-handed wunderkind who has shown in some of his non-MMA fights that he also has slick submission chops. Nurmagomedov may be the rightful favorite, but with zero pressure on the kid from Kazakhstan, the line appears to be a trifle off. As it stands, Nurmagomedov’s status at -1300 or so is barely worth the multiplier in a long parlay.

 

[PurpleStorm]

Hey folks don't forget the early start time!

UFC FN Rozenstruick v. Gaziev, Sat. 3/2​

Prelims 1:30 PM ET​

Main card 4:00 PM ESPN+​

 

[subtlySteve]

Hey folks don't forget the early start time!

UFC FN Rozenstruick v. Gaziev, Sat. 3/2​

Prelims 1:30 PM ET​

Main card 4:00 PM ESPN+​

Prelims begin at 7:30 pm and the Main Card starts at 10 pm - That means that it is one of the rare times that I don't have to stay up until 7 am and can get into bed at a decent hour like a normal human being.

Rejoice!

 

[Doughie99]

 

[Poirierfan]

Not many people are gonna watch this poopy card imo. I'm here to support the few brave peeps that do though,

 

[HI SCOTT NEWMAN]

Always with the shining TAP

Remember the card is starting earlier than usual. I know you have a lot of things to do on sunday, so good news for you.

 

[TempleoftheDog]

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say this may be the single worst UFC card, free or PPV, I've ever seen on paper.

I have 8 out 11 fights ending by finish. What more do you want, pal?

Thanks for the thread @PurpleStorm

 

[Luthien]

Remember the card is starting earlier than usual. I know you have a lot of things to do on sunday, so good news for you.

Thanks <3

 

[TempleoftheDog]

 

[tabascojet]

Erceg inside the distance ftw...

 

[Siver!]

Not many people are gonna watch this poopy card imo. I'm here to support the few brave peeps that do though,

I'm off gigging but I'll be following the results during piss breaks so make the commentary good, brother!

 

[Siver!]

Erceg inside the distance ftw...

I've gone for Matt "The Hell is That" Schnell

 

[TempleoftheDog]

One of the 3 fights I predicted would go the distance. And of course I picked the wrong guy.

Well, if you’re going to not get a perfect Tap card only getting one fight wrong. I’d rather lose the first fight, than the last.

Edit.
Wrong thread. lol

 

[tabascojet]

Erceg inside the distance ftw...

 

[PaulieVegas27]

I have 8 out 11 fights ending by finish. What more do you want, pal?

Thanks for the thread @PurpleStorm

Kimbo vs. Dada 5000 ended in a finish too, you know.