Elections Ooof... New Poll Numbers... Getting Ugly for Trump? [Update]

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luckyshot

luckyshot

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There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of the violence in Portland and Kenosha on the presidential race.

There was even a narrative evolving-- based on a couple of outlier polls-- that Trump had largely closed the gap and the race was now a toss up.

The latest round of comprehensive, high quality national and battleground polling disputes this, however. In fact, if these numbers are right, Drumpf's "law and order strategy" has blown up like a bomb in Wily Coyote's face.

Some highlights of polls take after both conventions and the Jacob Blake violence:
-- Biden +8 in Minnesota
-- Biden +10 in Wisconsin
-- Biden +11 in Michigan
-- Biden +8 in Pennsylvania
-- Biden +3 in Florida
-- Biden + 2 in North Carolina
-- Biden +10 (!) in Arizona
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

A couple of things that make these numbers even worse for Dumpy Trumpy:
-- Usually the time right after conventions marks a high water point for the incumbant
-- Only 8% of voters say they are undecided. At this point in 2016, 20% of voters were still unsure
-- Only 5% of voters list "violence and crime" as their most important issue heading into 2020... fewer than responded with "education" or "climate change" and FAR fewer than said "healthcare" and "carona virus response" (still the top issues by far)
-- Even if Trump "succeeds" in reframing the election to be about public safety, far more Americans trust Biden on this issue than trust Trump.


So, to sum it up. Not lookined good for Donny. Still.

Krystal Ball has some perceptive commentary on these numbers:
-- It's laughably ridiculous for Trump to try to paint Biden as a radical ANTIFA candidate... and voters aren't buying such an obvious pile of shit.
-- The nation feels like it needs to heal. And no one thinks Trump is better equipped to lead healing than Biden is. Biden is actually a human being. And actually capable of compassion.
-- The nation feels like it needs stability. Trump is, has been, and always will be an agent of chaos, not one of stability. A great line, "Michael Moore memorably described Trump as a 'human Molotov Cocktail' being thrown at the system, but when people are throwing actual Molotov Cocktails, that doesn't seem like such a good thing."



Edit:
More terribad numbers for Trump according to ABC/ Ipsos:

Who would do a better job handling protests?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%

Response to Covid-19?
Biden 60%
Trump 38%

Reducing violence?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%

Keeping US safe?
Biden 55%
Trump 42%

Is Trump's rhetoric making the protests/ violence better or worse?
Worse 55%
Better 13%

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-Trump-Biden-protest
 
Last edited:
luckyshot said:
There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of the violence in Portland and Kenosha on the presidential race.

There was even a narrative evolving-- based on a couple of outlier polls-- that Trump had largely closed the gap and the race was now a toss up.

The latest round of comprehensive, high quality national and battleground polling disputes this, however. In fact, if these numbers are right, Drumpf's "law and order strategy" has blown up like a bomb in Wily Coyote's face.

Some highlights of polls take after both conventions and the Jacob Blake violence:
-- Biden +8 in Minnesota
-- Biden +10 in Wisconsin
-- Biden +11 in Michigan
-- Biden +8 in Pennsylvania
-- Biden +3 in Florida
-- Biden + 2 in North Carolina
-- Biden +10 (!) in Arizona
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

A couple of things that make these numbers even worse for Dumpy Trumpy:
-- Usually the time right after conventions marks a high water point for the incumbant
-- Only 8% of voters say they are undecided. At this point in 2016, 20% of voters were still unsure
-- Only 5% of voters list "violence and crime" as their most important issue heading into 2020... fewer than responded with "education" or "climate change" and FAR fewer than said "healthcare" and "carona virus response" (still the top issues by far).

So, to sum it up. Not lookined good for the Don. Still.

Krystal Ball has some perceptive commentary on these numbers:
-- It's laughably ridiculous for Trump to try to paint Biden as a radical ANTIFA candidate... and voters aren't buying such an obvious pile of shit.
-- The nation feels like it needs to heal. And no one thinks Trump is better equipped to lead to healing this than Biden is. Biden is actually a human being. And actually capable of compassion.
-- The nation feels like it needs stability. Trump is, has been, and always will be an agent of chaos, not one of stability. A great line, "Michael Moore memorably described Trump as a 'human Molotov Cocktail' being thrown at the system, but when people are throwing actual Molotov Cocktails, that doesn't seem like such a good thing."

Click to expand...


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TheOneAboveAll3 said:
It's what I am saying as well. Made a thread that Trump wont help the nation heal. Trump is all about dividing our nation. We need Biden to be our president.
Click to expand...
Fuck em both tbh...
Probably be better off with a random person off the street.

To be fair though, some on the left are as equally to blame for the division.
 
andnowweknow said:
In what sense? The completely different candidate or the vastly different poll numbers?
Click to expand...

Biden is different than Hillary because Hillary refused to bend the knee to the radical left Bernie Bros.

Whereas Biden has completely turned his campaign over to them and become their bitch. Even begging them to gang bang his wife while he watches from the corner. At least that's what I'm hearing many people say.

/s
 
luckyshot said:
Yeah, I am willing to see that as an outlier, but two pretty good polls both show these numbers. I guess old folks in the sunbelt dont dig the "if they die, they die" strategy to handling the Rona.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing that, since you left it out, Biden doesn't have a commanding lead in Ohio?

I don't understand that state.
 
I wonder what's the ceiling on Biden's ceiling.
nate-1024x646.jpg
 
There's been a 3-pts close in the average nationwide gap since it's widest at the end of June when support for BLM was strongest. Since then, support for BLM has cratered, with a growing majority of white Americans no longer supporting it, only a tiny advantage of independents saying they have a favorable view of #BLM or the protests, and a nearly perfectly split population overall. Every day the riots continue this figure continues to slide, and Biden is weakened by it. That's why many liberal rags are breathing a sigh of relief, or over-stating the significance of one round of polls as your OP does.

If reading the larger trends, there's no denying the event that has had the greatest impact has been the onset of the pandemic, so Biden is wise to keep this at the center of his campaign. Yet it would be foolish to ignore the ever-intensifying, widespread violence growing around the country among a dissatisfied minority that has even convinced a small few Sherdoggers another civil war is on the horizon. This is a :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: in Biden's armor. It has always been his race to lose. He can't denounce #BLM due to the support on his side of the aisle, because he would risk alienating Democrats and them not showing up to vote, so he is in a tough spot, because he will continue to bleed centrists, independents, and moderate (non-black) Democrats who read a new headline every day about protesters carrying out brutal attacks on civilians and policemen without provocation.

*Edit* LOL, oh that's right, our word filter censors:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
*Edit* Double LOL. Wow, there's actually an editorial about this topic:
https://apnews.com/4722f93c10a141d39ddb0a65aef16c49
 
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