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There has been a lot of speculation about the effects of the violence in Portland and Kenosha on the presidential race.
There was even a narrative evolving-- based on a couple of outlier polls-- that Trump had largely closed the gap and the race was now a toss up.
The latest round of comprehensive, high quality national and battleground polling disputes this, however. In fact, if these numbers are right, Drumpf's "law and order strategy" has blown up like a bomb in Wily Coyote's face.
Some highlights of polls take after both conventions and the Jacob Blake violence:
-- Biden +8 in Minnesota
-- Biden +10 in Wisconsin
-- Biden +11 in Michigan
-- Biden +8 in Pennsylvania
-- Biden +3 in Florida
-- Biden + 2 in North Carolina
-- Biden +10 (!) in Arizona
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
A couple of things that make these numbers even worse for Dumpy Trumpy:
-- Usually the time right after conventions marks a high water point for the incumbant
-- Only 8% of voters say they are undecided. At this point in 2016, 20% of voters were still unsure
-- Only 5% of voters list "violence and crime" as their most important issue heading into 2020... fewer than responded with "education" or "climate change" and FAR fewer than said "healthcare" and "carona virus response" (still the top issues by far)
-- Even if Trump "succeeds" in reframing the election to be about public safety, far more Americans trust Biden on this issue than trust Trump.
So, to sum it up. Not lookined good for Donny. Still.
Krystal Ball has some perceptive commentary on these numbers:
-- It's laughably ridiculous for Trump to try to paint Biden as a radical ANTIFA candidate... and voters aren't buying such an obvious pile of shit.
-- The nation feels like it needs to heal. And no one thinks Trump is better equipped to lead healing than Biden is. Biden is actually a human being. And actually capable of compassion.
-- The nation feels like it needs stability. Trump is, has been, and always will be an agent of chaos, not one of stability. A great line, "Michael Moore memorably described Trump as a 'human Molotov Cocktail' being thrown at the system, but when people are throwing actual Molotov Cocktails, that doesn't seem like such a good thing."
Edit:
More terribad numbers for Trump according to ABC/ Ipsos:
Who would do a better job handling protests?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%
Response to Covid-19?
Biden 60%
Trump 38%
Reducing violence?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%
Keeping US safe?
Biden 55%
Trump 42%
Is Trump's rhetoric making the protests/ violence better or worse?
Worse 55%
Better 13%
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-Trump-Biden-protest
There was even a narrative evolving-- based on a couple of outlier polls-- that Trump had largely closed the gap and the race was now a toss up.
The latest round of comprehensive, high quality national and battleground polling disputes this, however. In fact, if these numbers are right, Drumpf's "law and order strategy" has blown up like a bomb in Wily Coyote's face.
Some highlights of polls take after both conventions and the Jacob Blake violence:
-- Biden +8 in Minnesota
-- Biden +10 in Wisconsin
-- Biden +11 in Michigan
-- Biden +8 in Pennsylvania
-- Biden +3 in Florida
-- Biden + 2 in North Carolina
-- Biden +10 (!) in Arizona
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
A couple of things that make these numbers even worse for Dumpy Trumpy:
-- Usually the time right after conventions marks a high water point for the incumbant
-- Only 8% of voters say they are undecided. At this point in 2016, 20% of voters were still unsure
-- Only 5% of voters list "violence and crime" as their most important issue heading into 2020... fewer than responded with "education" or "climate change" and FAR fewer than said "healthcare" and "carona virus response" (still the top issues by far)
-- Even if Trump "succeeds" in reframing the election to be about public safety, far more Americans trust Biden on this issue than trust Trump.
So, to sum it up. Not lookined good for Donny. Still.
Krystal Ball has some perceptive commentary on these numbers:
-- It's laughably ridiculous for Trump to try to paint Biden as a radical ANTIFA candidate... and voters aren't buying such an obvious pile of shit.
-- The nation feels like it needs to heal. And no one thinks Trump is better equipped to lead healing than Biden is. Biden is actually a human being. And actually capable of compassion.
-- The nation feels like it needs stability. Trump is, has been, and always will be an agent of chaos, not one of stability. A great line, "Michael Moore memorably described Trump as a 'human Molotov Cocktail' being thrown at the system, but when people are throwing actual Molotov Cocktails, that doesn't seem like such a good thing."
Edit:
More terribad numbers for Trump according to ABC/ Ipsos:
Who would do a better job handling protests?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%
Response to Covid-19?
Biden 60%
Trump 38%
Reducing violence?
Biden 59%
Trump 39%
Keeping US safe?
Biden 55%
Trump 42%
Is Trump's rhetoric making the protests/ violence better or worse?
Worse 55%
Better 13%
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-Trump-Biden-protest
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