Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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OneWarrior1 said:
Holloway is tall and lanky. Olive Oil can easily grab a limb.
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I agree. I'm surprised how much of the board is on Max at app -200.
I also can see Oliveira getting takedowns and/or trips and Max defending on ground. Fight starts rd 3 at -145 seems to have value as well
 
Roger FedorAIR said:
Damn, +235 Woodley. Love this line.

I'm no groundhog expert, but something tells me that line is probably going to be a lot closer come fight time.

I still don't see Hendro as a markedly better fighter than the guy that arguably lost to Pierce and Kos (I firmly believe Koscheck was the winner in that fight), and I see Woodley as not too dissimilar of a wrestler-boxer type of fighter as those two guys were, and I could easily foresee a scenario where this fight is another very closely matched fight where Hendro gets neutralized by a wrestler he can't control and it goes to a close decision.

Even if you're not picking T-Wood, I still think getting money in on him now is still a good bet, because I think you'll probably get a chance to arb out later, if you want it.

But then again, I'm deadass wrong on damn near all of my line movement predictions..
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Yes- I agree on that as well. I thought Woodley would be app. +150 and was surprised it was at 215. 235 has alot of value imo
 
Ukram said:
Pretty much on the same page with that vibe lets face it silva is great at rockin them and subbing early on but then cardio can take over and from that point everything does not work as well.

Magny has taken kicks and jabs well in the past (no ko losses his career @ 19 fights) and his recover is good, magny has to avoid them leg kicks or letting silva get his back or better position to work that sub here and magny will be more taller and have that range with his pistine jab.

I also reckon magny won't be doom and gloom from maias loss, maia does that to just about everyone anyhow I think magny will come out more aggressive and eager looking to get back his L and make him more relevant with a W again.
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He did get KO'd on TUF did he not? can't recall who it was that KO'd him but I do recall it happening. I believe it was Mike Ricci? There are gif's floating around.

jwms said:
I was tempted by this, too, but I'm not so certain. Burkman's noticeably better on the feet. Cote's known for his good chin, but he's been getting rocked lately, and while he's cleaned up his technique a bit, he still has poor boxing defense and is susceptible to knock downs & generally getting shaken up.

I suppose I don't really see Burkman finishing Cote, because the latter is still so mentally strong and gritty, but I'm less keen on that line than I thought I'd be.
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I do see where you are coming from and that would be the same apprehensions that I have regarding the Over but at -135 it's still a play for me.

Playing the odds it's implying that you think 60% of the time it goes Over 2.5 which I certainly agree with. While Burkman does pose a threat standing up I really don't see this one finishing over 40% of the time.
 
If Olive subs Holloway, I think it will be late. I like the over, I like fight starts round 3, I like Olive (no score cards***maybe***). For those who say they don't see a way Max loses this fight, submission has to be the most obvious way he does, if he does. I think this fight will be close.

I think Olive can get the takedown. Max was taken down three times against Fili, I think Clay Collard also took him down. Even Leonard Garcia was able to grab a few takedowns in their fight. I think if Olive gets him down Max will have trouble with him.
 
HeyBoone said:
I do see where you are coming from and that would be the same apprehensions that I have regarding the Over but at -135 it's still a play for me.

Playing the odds it's implying that you think 60% of the time it goes Over 2.5 which I certainly agree with. While Burkman does pose a threat standing up I really don't see this one finishing over 40% of the time.
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Ultimately, I agree. I put a small amt on the over. But it's not a line I'd be inclined to hammer as much as the Glover o1.5 or Holloway o1.5 (both of which I've hammered), for example.

Also put a small amount on Woodley @ +235, looking for that line to narrow leading up to the fight.
 
HeyBoone said:
He did get KO'd on TUF did he not? can't recall who it was that KO'd him but I do recall it happening. I believe it was Mike Ricci? There are gif's floating around.
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It was Ricci, but hard to put too much stock into a TUF fight. Conditions are not typical.
48724_ricciko.gif

https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/14hnas/tuf_16_neil_magny_vs_mike_ricci_ko_gif/
 
My biggest bet of the year, cancelled, and money tied up in parlays i dont give a shit about now. FUCK!
 
Yup was a good clean ko by ricci, but I don't think silva is capable of landing that killer blow he prefers to setup his subs with his body kicks or getting into better positions and he tends to slow down and have less pep to everything including kicks and sub attempts by end of r1 and more reduced by r2.

Its a tough fight for magny and due agree he is a bit overrated but do reckon he can avoid most of silvas game and use his height and range and volume here, especially if he survives r1.
 
Fair enough and agreed it was a while ago and in irregular circumstances but never the less he was KO'd. TUF seems to be an odd situation for some guys and they end up under performing but regardless he did get his lights put out there and chin is something you don't really train all too much.

Either way Silva throws dynamite and if he connects it will not be good for Magny (or anyone). I just think he's got a better chance to win ITD against Magny than Story (whom I gave Silva only a minor chance against comparatively)
 
One thing to consider on Magny is how he dealt with a sloppy slugfest where he was rocked v. Lim. He recovered well and got the fight under control, then finished Lim.
 
jwms said:
One thing to consider on Magny is how he dealt with a sloppy slugfest where he was rocked v. Lim. He recovered well and got the fight under control, then finished Lim.
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Magny did very well but at the same time Lim did equally as poorly in that situation going for those freaking knees every time.

Silva himself ain't no Dom Cruz when it comes to fight iq but I would expect Silva to get the finish IF he gets the same opportunity.

A very big reason why Magny have done well lately is his fight iq. I don't think he is particularly good in any area but he exploits his opponents weaknesses well. It's a tough fight to call.
 
Tennis

1.2u Stephens -4 -120 (over Cibulkova)
1u Pavlychenkova -1.5 sets +150 (over Diyas)

1u Stephens + Bencic parlay +107
 
i'm with several of ya on cote-burkman O2.5. only play on that fight for me, possibly
 
Sean O'Connell injured - Daniel Jolly is in. (vs. Misha Cirkunov)

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/8/1...vyweight-kadyrov-nephew-daniel-jolly-mma-news

Who is Dan Jolly?

30-year old Jolly comes to the UFC training out of Austin Kickboxing Academy and Bigger Faster Stronger Training in Texas. He's put together a 5-0 record competing largely on the Texas regional scene. Most recently he beat rising regional talent Josh Foster at IXFA 10. Otherwise there's little in the way of notable talent or names on his record, although surprisingly all his best competition was outside Legacy FC. Alongside his pro MMA career, Jolly is also a Kuk Sool Won practitioner and owner of his own academy.

What you should expect:

Interestingly, given his background in traditional martial arts and his training out of a school titled "Austin Kickboxing Academy," Jolly isn't exactly a striker. That's not to say he doesn't have power in his hands or even some decent technique, but the core of his game seems to be around getting into the clinch, doing some dirty boxing and changing levels for the takedown. He's definitely a good athlete and has fast hands, but he doesn't seem to want to spend any time at range. One the ground he's not a bad top control fighter, but he's not quite devastating with his ground and pound either. He lands big shots in bursts, but also seems very happy to just lock down positions and force guys to carry his weight. In general, Jolly has good athletic tools and a chance to develop a larger game around them to be a more dangerous fighter, but looks pretty limited right now.

What this means for his debut:

Assuming he's fighting Misha Cirkunov (if he's not then his debut is really dependent on his matchup)... This is exactly the wrong style to fight a guy like Cirkunov. On the one hand, Jolly is at his best in an area where Cirkunov is gonna want to engage him, the clinch. But, it's also an area where Cirkunov has a lot more options. If Jolly can't land a huge strike rushing in, Cirkunov's judo/wrestling/grappling game is going to meet him clinch for clinch and probably try and tear something off him in a hurry. As a somewhat more technically limited version of a fighter like Jimi Manuwa, there's a chance that Jolly really puts something together down the road. But, until he does, he's probably not winning against a fighter like Cirkunov.

 
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