Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Aug 10, 2015.
damnit story was the biggest bet i had in a while
Parlayed the overs for Holloway, story, and burkman fights for +300 and felt it was a GREAT bet. And now I read Story is injured. Fuckkk
Anyone else feel silva can sub magny in this fight?
Oliveira vs Max
I think do bronx is good fighter always improving but slowly, loves working in the clinches, decent grappling and gets some single leg take downs even trips at times we know he wants to grab a limb or neck and get this fight to the ground to work his jiu jitsu game (black belt) or his relentless submission game. However this makes him somewhat easy to read his last 2 fights(lentz/jeremey), smaller and shorter guys that literally jumped into olives main strengths and abilities?!
Max we know his bread and butter is his striking, good knees with head kicks lovely long accurate jabs and an high volume fighter and that is not discussing his improving ability which has been steady but good, no issues with weight cutting or making weight the key difference being is max should have better cardio coupled with his footwork, accuracy and speed all 3 things that do bronx can't handle well.
The only way olives wins if he gets this fight to the mat constantly across 25 minutes and to work his sub attempts or one killer sub, something max can avoid with his footwork or decent take down defense alone also seen multiple times of max not jumping within ones guard and just backing off or getting out of clinches getting back to his distance + accurate jab its just max style by default. Could discuss longer about maxes ability to mix it up with body to head shot combos something olives can't deal with too.
Max ko or hedged with olives sub imo
anyone w tennis plays today?
Neil Magny vs Eric silva
Well that sucks after watching last 3-4 fighters tape on story/silva lol
Silva has upped his fight iq lately especially after that brown fight, he is reserving cardio (very important to him) and using technique and his black belt jui jitsu belt to get fight ending subs in. I think he will do a bit better cardio wise in r2,r3 then we have seen but it will still be something that can slow him down.
Magny better cardio, reach and distance with his jabs and striking in general I reckon, silva would have to time his body kicks well and they reduce in power in r2,r3 much.
I don't think he has the wrestling or grappling to give magny too much problems either so think magny avoids the ground game more easier here and uses his striking to capture a ko or decision, maybe magny is just chasing a W and then go home approach here.
I like Magny ko, decision plays maybe hedged via silva sub or sub in r1 here
We will always have them magny decision lines to think about :icon_chee
I feel Silva has a better chance at a (T)KO. I think he'll only get a sub if he rocks him first. Magny did a lot better than I expected with surviving against Maia.
I had like 4u on him myself and might have added more with a simple hedge of Silva R1 and would likely cover 95% of the outcomes of that fight.
Wasn't my biggest but I was INSTANTLY backing Story when I heard of this matchup and even liked the line when it was at -180, at -130 it was an absolute steal imo.
Magny has a super quick turnaround here and I'm not sure where his confidence will be after getting his streak snapped. Either way I think Silva has a better chance here to win in R1 than against Story. Silva can easily hurt him on the feet and if it hits the mat Silva should be able to grab one of those long limbs and look for a tap.
Unlike Maia, Silva is super aggressive and just jumps on submissions, whereas Maia is much more methodical which is why it took him until the second round to find a submission. Magny is still a fish out of water on his back, obviously it was against Maia and he looked decent defensively despite the skill gap but it's still by far his biggest weakness and Silva can certainly exploit that in a mad scramble.
Will still hedge with Magny ML/Magny KO/Magny R2/R3 maybe in case he survives the initial onslaught.
Still an exciting fight (when is Silva in a boring fight?) but i MUCH preferred the Story fight from a betting perspective.
That's basically what I ended up just saying in my post above but like I said Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.
Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.
Anyone care to take a guess at what the Magny- Silva line will be?
Silva -250 to -300
Madness. I'd def bet on Magny at those odds
I'm terrible at this but Magny -150 ish?
Also why is the over 2.5 in Cote/Burkman so cheap?
Cote has gone to a decision in 4 of his last 5 fights, even dragging out a fight with Joe Riggs of all people. Burkman has seen more finishes lately but it's beating people who are less durable than Cote or losing to people with skill sets that Cote doesn't possess (top game of DHK for example).
I only really see this one going under 2.5 if Burkman hurts Cote early on and either TKO's or SUB's him in a scramble. Cote has a much more methodical approach lately and I highly doubt he finds a finish and likely grinds out another fight to the bitter end.
At -135 I think the Over 2.5 is a good play and saves you from any home town decision or controversy that we are almost numb to at this point. I did VERY well with the Overs on the last event and hope to pick my spots again this time, this one being very attractive to me.
Silva in the -200 range.
I would too - I don't know if they will open there, but I think they will close close to there. Silva is always popular with the fans and the books, he was a large favorite over DHK and he was favored over Brown iirc. In fact, I think he's been favored in all of his UFC fights if I'm not mistaken, and a lot of those fighters are > than a short notice Neil Magny.
With Magny coming off of a loss, just recently submitted (couple of weeks ago), taking the fight on short notice, historically looking weak in the first round .. against a hot prospect, strong in the first round, great submissions .. I think we're going to get a good line on Magny, and I think if Magny can do enough to survive in the first he'll win the next two.
Whoa we had opposite thoughts on that one lol. I understand it's a late replacement and Magny's stock went down from being submitted but still I would not touch Silva at -250 that would be nuts imo.
I also like the over, good find
Ageed with you guys, was already on it. Might chicken out and hedge a little though, have a bit more on it than I'm comfortable with. Also have $50 to win $300 with Burkman as the last leg.
8/23/2015 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1201 Josh Burkman/Patrick Cote* Over 2
Pretty much on the same page with that vibe lets face it silva is great at rockin them and subbing early on but then cardio can take over and from that point everything does not work as well.
Magny has taken kicks and jabs well in the past (no ko losses his career @ 19 fights) and his recover is good, magny has to avoid them leg kicks or letting silva get his back or better position to work that sub here and magny will be more taller and have that range with his pistine jab.
I also reckon magny won't be doom and gloom from maias loss, maia does that to just about everyone anyhow I think magny will come out more aggressive and eager looking to get back his L and make him more relevant with a W again.
I was tempted by this, too, but I'm not so certain. Burkman's noticeably better on the feet. Cote's known for his good chin, but he's been getting rocked lately, and while he's cleaned up his technique a bit, he still has poor boxing defense and is susceptible to knock downs & generally getting shaken up.
I suppose I don't really see Burkman finishing Cote, because the latter is still so mentally strong and gritty, but I'm less keen on that line than I thought I'd be.
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