Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Aug 10, 2015.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Same drill as always - post your bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

    Singles
    Erick Silva: $10 to win $5.71
    Oliveira: $7.50 to win $11.63
    Letourneau: $6.25 to win $8.75
    Feliz: $5 to win $5.50 $10.50
    Burkman: $3.75 to win $2.78
    de Lima: $3.75 to win $2.59
    Arantes/Jabouin over 2.5: $3.75 to win $2.34
    Trinaldo: $2.50 to win $7.50
    Stout: $2.50 to win $2.88
    Sims/Mercier ITD: $2.50 to win $2.38

    Risk of $47.50

    Parlays
    Field over Spieth (PGA Champ) + Oliveira/Holloway ITD: $10 to win $5.57
    Field over McIlroy/D. Johnson (PGA Champ) + Misha: $7.50 to win $3.40
    Latin America (Little League over Aus) + California (Little League over Kentucky) + Silverio: $3.75 to win $2.50
    Bassette + Field over Day (PGA): $2.50 Loss
    Beal + Oliveira/Holloway starts 2: $1.25 to win $1.30

    Risk of $25

    TOTAL RISK OF $72.50

    TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $151.30 Running Profit: $56.30 Approximate ROI for year 1.7867%)
    TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
    TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2611.83 Total Profit = $2582.83(Approximate ROI: 12.9353%)
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2015
  2. Slohog

    Slohog Green Belt

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    Somewhat looking forward to this card from a betting perspective. As long as they don't stack Canadian cards with mismatches they tend to be pretty good.
     
  3. OneWarrior1

    OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    Prospect heavy cards are generally decision fests.
     
  4. sonhow

    sonhow Red Belt

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    If Cote outwrestles Burkman then I just dont know what to say.. Because that is all what Cote does these days really.
    Burkmans fight iq is worrying though. Gave all the right keys for DHK to win despite holding a major advantage in the striking game.
     
  5. trident

    trident Water Belt

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    Counting only Kos' last 6 fights, Erick Silva’s last 5 wins were against guys that have a combined UFC record of 8-19, two of which have no UFC wins. Each time he dipped into the top ten, he got worked in some way or other. He got Fitched, he got Stun Gunned, and he got straight up raped by Matt Brown.

    Dude is athletic and skilled, and he can get pissed in pressured fights and go bezerker for about 15 seconds, but then he gasses and loses power. DHK was in pure zombie mode blocking punches with his nose and mouth and forehead, but Silva had nothing that could drop him, and then Erick got dropped by a torpedo. From a zombie.

    Story can take a punch if anyone can. He loses decisions and split decisions, and once, just once, he got juiced by Maia. Story’s losses are significantly better than Silva’s. He was never beat down like a lean deer by a mountain lion. He might lose, but, outside of the Maia fight, he could probably go another round or two. In 26 fights, he has only been really owned once.

    Can Silva sub Story in the first round? That’s the only path to victory I see for him. As the fight goes on, I think his odds go down. Loving Story at −125.
     
  6. dcho8

    dcho8 Yellow Belt

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    Just purely looking at Holloways several performance, I think Holloway will win by decision. I have to look at the tapes again.

    I know Oliveira's strengths are his standup and ground game, but I think that's Holloway's strengths too. The only difference that I see is that Holloway is more durable and will constantly pressure Oliveira. The only way I see Oliveira winning is by submission.

    Holloway by decision or t/ko.
     
  7. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I was a bit late to the after party on Fight Night 73 thread. I wanted to say thank you to everyone for their input. I was up about 22 u. Specifically, thanks to EZ Flyer and Rebel Lion. I hope you hang around Rebel Lion and I do highly respect your picks and input. I wish I would have tailed your big parlay! I didn't tail it because it looked to long!

    Also thanks to the person that brought up Glover by sub. and mentioned the interview where he discussed that.

    For those that lost money on the last card GL with the coming one....hopefully you can make it back!
     
  8. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    so far just a couple units on holloway as parlay opener
     
  9. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    from last thread:

    heyboone - yea, i'm looking at rivera, too. he's gonna be a LOT taller. lineker almost always struggles w/his weight cuts, but, man, it doesn't seem like it affects him much.

    it's a tough fight to call. but rivera is generally really strong in the first round, maybe prefight bet him and live hedge if you think it warrants it?
     
  10. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    fuckkk, missed oliveira sub +445 opener. it's only +280 now. that was gonna be my pseudo-hedge to my holloway action.

    not doing +280.

    holloway rd 3 +700
    holloway rd 4 +1000
    holloway rd 5 +1500

    hrmmmm
     
  11. dcho8

    dcho8 Yellow Belt

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    Damn Bovada never releases their props until the day of the fight. Round 3 looks tempting.
     
  12. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Cant believe it opened +445 if it stays at +280 better than i anticipated but i see it dropping to +200 by fight time.
     
  13. HeyBoone

    HeyBoone Brown Belt

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    The only thing I see Lineker maybe doing is throwing more volume to win but Cisco should be much larger and more technical. Linekwr swings too wide too often.

    I absolutely love Linekers body work but again I just hate to see him at BW it's just really dumb.

    If anyone finds a finish I would think it's Rivera but Lineker might be tough enough to last to the cards.

    I just finished watching MJ / Dariush again and I mean ya MJ probably should have won the second but it's not the blowout I expected with the outrage I read on these forums.

    Second round is obviously the contentious round and I don't have too much of a hard time seeing someone give it to Dariush. MJ didn't do nearly enough to make it very clearly his round. He didn't land anything of significance until about halfway through the round and Dariush landed his fair share of good shots imo.

    I just wouldn't call it the worst robbery of all time.
     
  14. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I didn't rewatch the Dariush/MJ fight again because I didn't think it was a good fight at all. MJ was far more concerned with not getting taken down than being very effective with his offense. I hate fights like that, especially when they have good potential.
     
  15. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    When I initially watched MJ/Dariush I fully expected MJ to win and I didn't even watch the decision. I had my money on Dariush and was already emotionally accepting the fact that it was a loss...

    I am also not going to rewatch it because it wasn't exciting. I don't have a solution but I feel like in general the whole concept of "going to a decision" is bad for the sport.

    In a weird way the judges sucking is actually good for the sport because it puts more onus on the fighters to get the job done rather than leaving it to the judges.
     
  16. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I was on Dariush too and thought he lost as well. I do agree with your last sentence though. There have been "robberies" where I was on the losing side and I don't even care. It's more of "neither of them deserved the win anyhow". This used to be common in Jake Shields fights. You have guys so terrified of going to the ground with Shields, that they can effectively get any offense going against a pretty poor striker. I thought Johnson looked pretty bad in the fight offensively, but very sharp defensively.
     
  17. jerryisgood

    jerryisgood Green Belt

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    I'm interested in Charles Oliviera's "No Scorecards" line. I personally think Olive is more likely to finish than Holloway. My gut says Olive by submission or Holloway decision, but I think Holloway will have more volume than power and I think it's those clean power shots that wreck Olive.

    Also, is there a significant size difference here?

    Edit; On a side note, I LOVE the "No Scorecards" lines. Fantastic for heavy hitters or guys with good chins against decision machines. Worked great in Nunes x McMann, Johnson x. Rosholt, Glover x OSP.

    Edit II: Also interested in Moroz No Scorecards.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2015
  18. cs02132

    cs02132 Green Belt

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    I hope if Oliviera is losing or not doing too well he pulls guard. he has a big advantage on the ground. charles' guard is very active

    yes i know it was like 5 years ago and he was like 20 and a white belt, but who gets mounted triangle armbarred in the ufc ? lol .. i know max has improved A LOT though
     
  19. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    who do you guys reckon will be the biggest favs/dogs on the upcoming card?
     
  20. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Bet365 released odds for a host of UFC 191 fights. Took AJ + Felder + DJ @ -110 for
     
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