Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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MMAGF I know you have a good grip on Pearson's skills. Do you think he should be this big of a dog? Assume he's fully healthy and ready to roll.

Actually Rebel I was just thinking about this fight and was planning on watching footage, but from what is stored in my memory bank I think that the line on this fight is out of whack.

Real quick shitty break down (spoiler for space)

First off, I do think that Felder is among the best strikers in the 155 pound weight division, but he is a relative neophyte in the UFC and when he is at his best, Ross Pearson is an absolute stud boxer who has the capability of out pointing just about any striker in the division or catching them and knocking them out as he has tremendous power as well.

I do think that Felder is the rightful favorite as he is the more diverse striker and is willing to pull more attacks out of the repertoire than the more boxing centric Pearson. Indeed, rather than mess around with low percentage spinning attacks that can get you taken down, Ross prefers to instead just plant his feet and throw cris, clean, tight punches straight down the pipe. Additionally, Ross is also a master at getting in telephone booth range and using his tight striking defense to counter his over aggressive opponents who attack with looping punches.

Meanwhile, Felder also has good hands but is also comfortable throwing spinning heel kicks, wheel kicks, ax kicks, and myriad other spinning techniques in concert with the more fundamental attacks that he utilizes such as his devastating leg kicks. The fanciful striking of Felder is a byproduct of his TKD and karate backgrounds which he has a black belt in each respective discipline.

Essentially, if you watch his striking technique, Felder has basically married Dutch Muay Thai with the traditional Japanese striking arts TKD and karate. That is to say, where most of those fighters who specialize in TKD and/or karate will throw their techniques just to land (a product of the point fighting systems in the respective arts) Felder throws his strikes with the intentions of taking his opponents head off. This is what separates Felder from other fighters who are high-level traditional martial artists.

Nevertheless, in his last outing Felder showed a real vulnerability in his defense which is that he can have trouble with speedy fighters who can get off faster than he can -- which was how Barbosa continuously scored on him. While Ross is not as fast as Barbosa is, he is still a quick, and his tight punches make him extremely effective. In fact, we saw this when Pearson and Barbosa fought. What's more, while he mainly utilizes a near exclusive boxing attack, Ross is much more than a two-fisted pugilist as he too holds a black belt in TKD and in a fight where he is unafraid of being taken down, we could potentially see a lot more of Pearson's creativity then we have seen in the past. Actually, if you go back and look at Pearson's fights with opponents who are not going to try and take him down such as Andre Winner, Dennis Siver, Sam Stout, and Edson Barbosa, you'll see that Pearson is extremely efficient and exceptionally versatile. At the same time however, when facing excellent strikers with the ability to get the takedown, such as Cub Swanson and Al Iaquinta, we've seen Ross get his chin cracked.

I'll go to more in depth later in the week, but I do believe that as of right now Felder is probably at -165 or so just because of his edge in power and versatility. But regardless, I don't see any way to justify a SU play on Felder as a near 4-1 favorite. X currently, the best way to play this IMO would be Ross x DEC or Felder KO.
 
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UFC Fight Night 74 - Lightweight 3 rounds - SaskTel Centre - Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada - FS1
Sun 8/23 1301 Chad Laprise -190 o2
 
Got in on Valerie at +130. Loved that line. Wish I got on Silverio -160
 
Don't bet on Valerie, she is gonna lose pretty badly. Moroz much more athletic and better at everything. Valerie got tapped out by Roxy Modaferri. Nikita Krylov as a underdog is a must, guy is clearly improving every fight, not as terrible as people thought when he first joined the UFC.
 
Anyone got any opinions on trinaldo vs chad?

I was feeling Chad via his better footwork, speed and technical boxing and low leg kicks, also reckon his ground game is underrated he tends to use his wrestling and jui jitsu to keep the fight up right so he can use his bread and butter his striking.

But then I remembered parke fight and how trinaldo is just a decent all round beast !

Maybe the Over 1.5, 2.5 plays ? maybe decision play (last 5 fights for both went to decision) may just live bet whoever gets there game going better in r1 and look at them decision lines!
 
MLB

Indians -119 for 1u
 
Don't bet on Valerie, she is gonna lose pretty badly. Moroz much more athletic and better at everything. Valerie got tapped out by Roxy Modaferri. Nikita Krylov as a underdog is a must, guy is clearly improving every fight, not as terrible as people thought when he first joined the UFC.
I disagree, Valerie should be the better striker. Calderwood can make any opponents striking look great. Furthermore, Valerie has greatly improved since the Roxy loss. She's been training at ATT for a while now and has improved her ground game.
 
Don't bet on Valerie, she is gonna lose pretty badly. Moroz much more athletic and better at everything. Valerie got tapped out by Roxy Modaferri. Nikita Krylov as a underdog is a must, guy is clearly improving every fight, not as terrible as people thought when he first joined the UFC.

...don't agree at all on moroz-valerie.
 
I like the over on Trinaldo Laprise. Trinaldo looked improved enough lately to take an ass-beating for 3 rounds. Comments? lol
 
Anyone got any opinions on trinaldo vs chad?
!

I really like the o1.5, both of these guys go to decisions a lot

EDIT: line offered is o2.5 @ -260. too expensive IMO
 
I disagree, Valerie should be the better striker. Calderwood can make any opponents striking look great. Furthermore, Valerie has greatly improved since the Roxy loss. She's been training at ATT for a while now and has improved her ground game.

I agree with the Calderwood part, but I've been watching Moroz since Kunlun fight she improves with every fight. I just feel she's too athletic and fast, again hate using MMA math, but Valerie also struggled with that really terrible fighter Phillips.
 
Only thing I bet so far is Arantes -175. The line will probably get better for him since I'm terrible reading line movement but I think Jabouin is pretty much done. Arantes is tough and well rounded, Jabouin's wrassling has gotten better but Arantes can negate that and grind him out, imo.
 
Anyone got any opinions on trinaldo vs chad?

I was feeling Chad via his better footwork, speed and technical boxing and low leg kicks, also reckon his ground game is underrated he tends to use his wrestling and jui jitsu to keep the fight up right so he can use his bread and butter his striking.

But then I remembered parke fight and how trinaldo is just a decent all round beast !

Maybe the Over 1.5, 2.5 plays ? maybe decision play (last 5 fights for both went to decision) may just live bet whoever gets there game going better in r1 and look at them decision lines!
The o2.5 is so juiced out to me. Probably going to be looking at Laprise DEC prop, feel even better since it's in Canada.
 
Hedging is basically a way to reduce your risk or exposure.

What Sham suggested for example is betting Magny straight up (to win the fight) but then also make a bet on Silva to win in r1.

In this example we are expecting Magny to win but just in case Silva gets a round 1 KO the amount we lose is reduced.


Ah right, cool thanks for telling me
 
I like this:

Pearson wins inside distance +795

It is not unthinkable that Pearson rocks Felder. After Felder lost to EB his comment was that he will always come forward even if it means getting KO'd. I don't think we will see a tentative Felder after losing a decision.
 
I agree with the Calderwood part, but I've been watching Moroz since Kunlun fight she improves with every fight. I just feel she's too athletic and fast, again hate using MMA math, but Valerie also struggled with that really terrible fighter Phillips.
To be fair, that was Val's first fight in the UFC and it was at 135lbs. She's fought Gadelha and Alexis Davis to split DECs, albeit losing them. I agree Moroz will probably be more athletic and faster, but I'm not sure what else she has on Valerie besides armbars.
 
I really like the o1.5, both of these guys go to decisions a lot

EDIT: line offered is o2.5 @ -260. too expensive IMO

The o2.5 is so juiced out to me. Probably going to be looking at Laprise DEC prop, feel even better since it's in Canada.

Good to know, yeah chad decision line is something was eyeing up was thinking of seeing how r1 plays out though lines may get some decent movement if either gets there game going :)
 
Regarding Tony Sims vs Mercier, this match up is much different now that wades out of the fight.

If I recall right Sims has a decent pro boxing background and it showed in his last fight where he knocked out steve. Sims can use his boxing to set up take downs with his wrestling too, but this kinda becomes a grappler vs striker match up and a bit more in favor of mercier here who will be the stronger grappler and grinder with his good ju jitsu game.

Sims has good speed and footwork also so it may work for some time but I am unsure how he handles merciers grappling and submission game if he gets his game going.

think ill live bet who ever gets there game going better here will be interesting to see how sims deals with a decent grappler though, not sure he has in previous fights.
 
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