Official UFN 74 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Rebel_LioN]

$350.00 $200.00 Pending 8/23/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Olivier Aubin-Mercier -175* vs Tony Sims

If anyone remembers, I went uber huge on Tony Sims TKO +450 last time out against that tall guy. But I'm going against him here.

I think Olivier despite having no KO's on his record is good enough to hang with Sims here. He won't KO Tony but I think he'll get it to the ground eventually and snatch his signature RNC or he'll ride out rounds taking Sim's back for a decision in Canada. I'm NOT saying he's a forsure W, I obviously know there's a path to victory here for Sims which is power in both his hands, but I don't think in his sophomore appearance he's going to keep OAM off him in clinch situations.

I will hedge -slightly- with Sims by KO eventually when the rest of the prop odds come out. Also, I think since I got OAM at -175, I'll be able to hedge out if I wanted to since he's already climbing up to -225 and possibly higher. [I actually also have him at -165 in his opener in a 150$ parlay]

Just like others in his camp, Tony switches his stances regularly during fights but just like Thatch/Gunnar, it also leaves them open for a myriad of things defensively. Sims is also a guy who uses his wrestling as a 2nd option if things arent going his way but he's not going to want to shoot against OAM who I think will beat him in scrambles.

Just my initial thoughts, I could be wrong if I go back and revise but I haven't watched tape yet. But since we got a lil less than 2 weeks to do so I can come back to this if anyone has anything to add or thinks I missed a beat.

 

[iGnP]

$350.00 $200.00 Pending 8/23/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Olivier Aubin-Mercier -175* vs Tony Sims

If anyone remembers, I went uber huge on Tony Sims TKO +450 last time out against that tall guy. But I'm going against him here.

I think Olivier despite having no KO's on his record is good enough to hang with Sims here. He won't KO Tony but I think he'll get it to the ground eventually and snatch his signature RNC or he'll ride out rounds taking Sim's back for a decision in Canada. I'm NOT saying he's a forsure W, I obviously know there's a path to victory here for Sims which is power in both his hands, but I don't think in his sophomore appearance he's going to keep OAM off him in clinch situations.

I will hedge -slightly- with Sims by KO eventually when the rest of the prop odds come out. Also, I think since I got OAM at -175, I'll be able to hedge out if I wanted to since he's already climbing up to -225 and possibly higher. [I actually also have him at -165 in his opener in a 150$ parlay]

Just like others in his camp, Tony switches his stances regularly during fights but just like Thatch/Gunnar, it also leaves them open for a myriad of things defensively. Sims is also a guy who uses his wrestling as a 2nd option if things arent going his way but he's not going to want to shoot against OAM who I think will beat him in scrambles.

Just my initial thoughts, I could be wrong if I go back and revise but I haven't watched tape yet. But since we got a lil less than 2 weeks to do so I can come back to this if anyone has anything to add or thinks I missed a beat.

I'm a bit torn on this fight. I loved what I saw from Sims leading up to his last fight and that might be making me biased but I think these are good odds to back him here. Waiting for everyone else's opinions before I pull the trigger

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Also favoring

Frankie Perez -125
Elias/Campbell Over 1

 

[HuntoGoato]

Betonline still only with 2 UFN 74 fights up...cmon!

 

[iGnP]

Also favoring

Frankie Perez -125
Elias/Campbell Over 1

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think I asked this before but I'm not sure if you got around to answering but what makes you decide whether to hedge or keep the bet if the line moves favorably

Sorry the thread gets really hard to keep up with sometimes lol it's a bit draining.

Well there are a few questions I always ask myself. Who do I think will really win? Who has more ways to win? If I feel like my guy has a decent chance to lose, then I will definitely hedge out. Take Chris Dempsey for example, that guy sucks and there was no way I was going to be confident in his W, but the fact his dec prop played +385, the line was way off. Risky but I got a potential free play, even though he lost.

If the line moves favorably, and you have the opportunity at a free play, I always recommend just taking it if you have the money to back it up (as in big bank and you don't mind tying up money). Over time you'll figure it out yourself through experience if you want to try it this way. Again this style is NOT for everyone.

Just to reiterate, I like to look for value when openers come out, and usually closer to fight day, I want to zero in on who I think will REALLY win and hedge accordingly. I don't know if I articulated my thoughts clear enough to understand but these things are always very complicated. I'm a much better public speaker than I am a writer.





EDIT: Damn I just realized I picked a bunch of favorites again on this card. As Dave chappelle once said, WTF IS JUICE!?

 

[MMA Goodfella]

i don't like Rivera, Lineker was very good against uncle creepy, great submission attempts and he has never been knocked out.
Then again i hate to go against MMAGoodfella. How do you breakdown this fight man? Is Rivera better striker or wrestler than uncle creepy???

Cisco versus Lineker..... My early thoughts

Spoiler

Basically styles make fights and this is a terrible stylistic matchup for John Lineker in my opinion. I say this because, Francisco is a very large Bantamweight who has to cut down to make the 135 pound weight limit whereas John is a blown up flyweight who should be competing at 125 pounds. It's not just that Cisco's frame is bigger, it's that he has a 7 inch height advantage going into this fight as he is facing a guy in Lineker who is only 5'2" tall -- this is an absolutely astounding edge when you are already facing a fighter who should be fighting down a division. Although there may be difference in the talent disparity in this analogy, physically speaking, this is effectively the equivalent of Manny Gamburyian going up and trying to face Dennis Bermudez or Ricardo Lamas.

What's more, Francisco Rivera is extremely athletic and at 33 years old is in his prime and fighting at the level most observers thought he could reach when he first got into the sport. While not quite as athletic, Cisco reminds me a bit of Michael Johnson in that both were college football players and when they made their entry into mixed martial arts they would lose to anyone who could take them down, and just in the last few years both have shored up this liability and are now fighting at the top of their game and are contenders in their respective divisions.

Indeed, Cisco is peaking and we saw the origins of this in his tilt with Uriah Faber where Cisco was taking it to the former champion. While on the feel Cisco was picking Faber apart and stuffing all of his TDAs prior to the unfortunate eye poke incident. Other than champion fighters who faced Faber for a title, nobody had ever got the best of him quite like Cisco was doing. Accordingly, this progression continue in his next fight as Cisco ran through Bruce Leroy in just 21 seconds like BLR was a speed bump and Cisco was in a German tank.

As for John, he is a stone fisted brawler with an iron chin who has always been happy to eat three shots from his opponent if it means that he can land one of his own; while this is a feasible option in the 125 pound division, it is not the case in the 135 pound class when you're facing a fighter just as heavy-handed as you are and who has in the past bodied dude's at 145 pounds like he was swatting flies. Granted, Cisco has never been a terrific mixed martial artist, predominately because he never had the MIXED part of the game down, but as far as his striking, he has always been a dangerous fighter with one shot knock out power.

At any rate, these two fighters are as similar as you can get, both are essentially mirror images of one another only that they are built to fight in separate weight classes. XThe style of both John and Cisco has always been a boxing oriented attack where they do little else besides stalk their opponent down and chuck leather, and I anticipate that this will be what happens when they meet each other. However, I think that it is going to be like a Dodge Charger steaming toward a Mazda Miata.

Basically, I think this fight was dreamt up by Joe Silva and UFC brass as punishment to teach Lineker a lesson which is that his place is at 125 pounds and he needs to do what he can to get his diet in order because he is too small to complete up a division. I don't see how a one dimensional fighter like John Lineker can have much success here with he basically cannot do anything better than what Francisco Rivera can do and he is giving up 3" and 9" and reach and height respectively.

Be it physically, stylistically, or technically, there is nothing I see that says that Lineker walks away with a win unless of course he cracks Cisco's jaw which is always possible as I think that Lineker has the power in his hands to knock out some welterweights. However, he will need a lot of work to do this as Cisco has only been knocked out one time in 14 career fights and this was in his 6th professional fight when he made his WEC debut against the featherweight (now lightweight) Eric Koch and was dusted via HHK back when Cisco was fighting in the 145 pound division. And of course it must be mentioned that this was 5 very long years ago.

And 11 of his wins Cisco has accumulated eight of them by form of knock out. I think Rivera can very well hurt Lineker and put him away on the feet but I also think that he has a safety valve he can implement and that is his takedowns. Although he is not a great wrestler, Cisco has shown that he can put fighters on their back when he needs to and given his prodigious size advantage he can utilize his physicality to lean on and clinch with Lineker and all around be the boss in the fight.. In the past we have seen Lineker stumble when facing a guy that can take him down and Ali Bagautinov recently was able to both take him down and win the striking battle -- I think that Cisco can do the exact same.

That said, I think that the Cisco should be no worse than a -280 favorite and getting him at -109 is an absolute steal in my opinion.

 

[TheChampIsHere1]

Sorry the thread gets really hard to keep up with sometimes lol it's a bit draining.

Well there are a few questions I always ask myself. Who do I think will really win? Who has more ways to win? If I feel like my guy has a decent chance to lose, then I will definitely hedge out. Take Chris Dempsey for example, that guy sucks and there was no way I was going to be confident in his W, but the fact his dec prop played +385, the line was way off. Risky but I got a potential free play, even though he lost.

If the line moves favorably, and you have the opportunity at a free play, I always recommend just taking it if you have the money to back it up (as in big bank and you don't mind tying up money). Over time you'll figure it out yourself through experience if you want to try it this way. Again this style is NOT for everyone.

Just to reiterate, I like to look for value when openers come out, and usually closer to fight day, I want to zero in on who I think will REALLY win and hedge accordingly. I don't know if I articulated my thoughts clear enough to understand but these things are always very complicated. I'm a much better public speaker than I am a writer.





EDIT: Damn I just realized I picked a bunch of favorites again on this card. As Dave chappelle once said, WTF IS JUICE!?

Hey man,

What were those 4 style of betting that wrote about earlier?

Would like to screen shot it!

 

[iGnP]

MLB

Spoiler

if the Indians hold on and pull out the W, i got another play for tonight. stay tuned

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Sorry the thread gets really hard to keep up with sometimes lol it's a bit draining.

Well there are a few questions I always ask myself. Who do I think will really win? Who has more ways to win? If I feel like my guy has a decent chance to lose, then I will definitely hedge out. Take Chris Dempsey for example, that guy sucks and there was no way I was going to be confident in his W, but the fact his dec prop played +385, the line was way off. Risky but I got a potential free play, even though he lost.

If the line moves favorably, and you have the opportunity at a free play, I always recommend just taking it if you have the money to back it up (as in big bank and you don't mind tying up money). Over time you'll figure it out yourself through experience if you want to try it this way. Again this style is NOT for everyone.

Just to reiterate, I like to look for value when openers come out, and usually closer to fight day, I want to zero in on who I think will REALLY win and hedge accordingly. I don't know if I articulated my thoughts clear enough to understand but these things are always very complicated. I'm a much better public speaker than I am a writer.





EDIT: Damn I just realized I picked a bunch of favorites again on this card. As Dave chappelle once said, WTF IS JUICE!?

Just to add to this, like Reb said. it's not for everyone. I always say this, but I'll say it again, I'm terrible with predicting line movement so this style doesn't fit me very well despite it being a good style to make money for others.


Reb obviously is very good at this and that's a big reason why he can basically freeroll a lot of opening lines by predicting that they'll move one direction and then betting the other side to insure a profit no matter what, or at least break even.

For example, EZ got in on PVZ earlier b/c he expects the line to get bet like crazy and he not only likes the price but expects a freeroll opportunity if he feels like it. Btw thanks for the heads up, took it at a worse price at -140 but still like the price.

Like I said, I'm familiar with the process but don't really use this approach, so if I'm not explaining it correctly, then my bad.

Edit: I'm sure most of us understand the basic format of this but if anyone doesn't then that's why I added this (that is on the pretense that I explained it correctly).

edit edit: I think I used pretense wrong, lol. It's my English teachers faults. Blame them

 

[OneWarrior1]

Footage of Max being taken down, his ground game, and clinch game against Andre Fili:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdinbXqPWG8

Max finishes with a a guillotine in his guard.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Hey man,

What were those 4 style of betting that wrote about earlier?

Would like to screen shot it!

Just look at my post history I don't even remember what I said.

Just to add to this, like Reb said. it's not for everyone. I always say this, but I'll say it again, I'm terrible with predicting line movement so this style doesn't fit me very well despite it being a good style to make money for others.


Reb obviously is very good at this and that's a big reason why he can basically freeroll a lot of opening lines by predicting that they'll move one direction and then betting the other side to insure a profit no matter what, or at least break even.

For example, EZ got in on PVZ earlier b/c he expects the line to get bet like crazy and he not only likes the price but expects a freeroll opportunity if he feels like it. Btw thanks for the heads up, took it at a worse price at -140 but still like the price.

Like I said, I'm familiar with the process but don't really use this approach, so if I'm not explaining it correctly, then my bad.

Thank you!! well said!




And I always like to add content, so I'll add my thoughts on Lineker/Rivera:

When's the last time Lineker fought a guy who obliged to stand and trade with him? Here's that guy in Cisco Rivera, who is also about 5" taller than Lineker. Interestingly, I noted that because the last few guys Lineker fought were guys who were grappling based fighters (McCall, Alptekin, Ali B, Phil harris, Maria Tome, Azamat, Urushitani). They all fell victim to Lineker's tenacity and pressure and they all cracked.

AND then finally, you got the 1 guy who wanted to bang bro, green haired Louis Gaudinot who ended up choking him in the end. I can see the same thign happening here where the guys swing until someone drops and I'd like to think Rivera is the bigger stronger guy.

Another notable fight I want to reference was Alptekin's performance against Lineker. He was actually doing pretty well to start off and he was slipping and counter alot of Lineker's stuff. He was landing a good clip until he gassed from Lineker's pure aggression and body shots.

There's also somethign I do not like about Lineker. He is not a professional and he's a bit of a dumbass. He's being punished to fight at 135 because his ass can't stay on diet and he doesn't possess strong character. Rivera seems to REALLY want it from interviews I've seen of him.

Just my thoughts. I'm not super sure yet but it's just a lean for me on Rivera -105.

 

[salonicafan]

but I also think that he has a safety valve he can implement and that is his takedowns. Although he is not a great wrestler, Cisco has shown that he can put fighters on their back when he needs to and given his prodigious size advantage he can utilize his physicality to lean on and clinch with Lineker and all around be the boss in the fight.. In the past we have seen Lineker stumble when facing a guy that can take him down and Ali Bagautinov recently was able to both take him down and win the striking battle -- I think that Cisco can do the exact same.

That said, I think that the Cisco should be no worse than a -280 favorite and getting him at -109 is an absolute steal in my opinion. [/Spoiler]

Yes BUT
Ali Bagautinov is a very good grappler, Rivera isn't. Lineker can submit him from his back, or put him in danger with choke attempts to gain points.

 

[iGnP]

mlb

Spoiler

indians -119 for 1u

Spoiler

woooo indians!

 

[cs02132]

Spoiler

Only team I see Juventus losing it to is Roma and I give that maybe a 10% chance? Lol they are crazy odds and even though they sold stars they still have the best team by far.

I'm only Roma to win league without juventus @ +200

Spoiler

i dont remember exactly but i think roma were +430 or +490 to win. easy hedge. im thinking about making a deposit and putting some bets in. juventus and the wolfsburg finish top 4

 

[Bet Me]

Can't place the bet yet but I got Max + Erick on a parlay with a few more I haven't decided on yet. I will risk $20 on Oliveria via submission depending on the odds he gets.

 

[cs02132]

bets i like so far:
silva/magny o1.5
cote/burkman o2.5
laprise/trinaldo o2.5 although its too juiced. ill def be looking to LB trinaldo though
i like mercier at -245 i wish i got him at -165
beal over kelades

 

[DeathByCaranos]

Spoiler

woooo indians!

Spoiler

Read your post too late to tail but that was a long game. Congrats. I had bet on all four night games and had and had a crazy live betting wave to luckily end up 1 unit.

 

[Sham5916910]

 

[Oblivian]

If Rivera gets bet as heavy as some people like him in this thread, I'll be on Lineker. I think that is going to be a back and forth fight that is pretty close.