Official UFC 184 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[EzFlyer]

Guys don't bet those lines....

 

[Tebowned]

Guys don't bet those lines....

No reason too lol they'll get mad.

 

[rille31]

Guys don't bet those lines....

I actually hit one last event, +145 instead of - 115

It was up for like 1 min and they didn't notice my bet when they corrected the line

 

[EzFlyer]

Well that's not as obvious, I guess

 

[Diet Otsuka]

That's the fucked up thing about betting. If you are bringing in a decent amount, are you declaring it on your taxes? If you are, have fun with that if you gamble in a state where it's illegal.

It's times like this I am thankful for my slightly above average betting results. Keepin things mediocre to avoid the IRS.

 

[UAK]

I don't understand people who bet more than pennies over a long period and don't declare income from gambling. Don't know the translation for the swedish term but after a while it's not considered tax negligence, it's plain fraud and the consequences can be brutal. Tax fraud is considered a very serious felony in sweden. If you're using 5dimes or pinnacle stop now or start declaring income.

Btw, they can go back many years so even if you don't get caught now, they can bring up your history so 5 years from now and ask you to show proof of where that money comes. There were many swedish poker pros that get caught a while back when the swedish IRS started seriously going after people who made money on the net. Even players who won money 3-5 years ago got their asses handed to them.

 

[ZenArcade]

anyone else like the value on roan? munoz is shot in my opinion and roan has looked good recently.

I have to say Roan Carneiro impressed me in that Battlegrounds One Night Elimination Welterweight tournament a few months ago by wining three fights in one night- one by sub, one by KO and one by decision. Although, this return to the UFC is at Middleweight and against a pretty good wrestler and decent fighter in Mark Munoz.

 

[Oblivian]

I don't understand people who bet more than pennies over a long period and don't declare income from gambling. Don't know the translation for the swedish term but after a while it's not considered tax negligence, it's plain fraud and the consequences can be brutal. Tax fraud is considered a very serious felony in sweden. If you're using 5dimes or pinnacle stop now or start declaring income.

Btw, they can go back many years so even if you don't get caught now, they can bring up your history so 5 years from now and ask you to show proof of where that money comes. There were many swedish poker pros that get caught a while back when the swedish IRS started seriously going after people who made money on the net. Even players who won money 3-5 years ago got their asses handed to them.

The US is so fucked with it since some states clearly say online gambling is illegal, yet the federal government would want you to declare the income. You also file state taxes, so it's a big clusterfuck. You declare the income from online gambling, you get audited for whatever reason, and you are essentially admitting to a crime.

 

[mkess101]

I don't understand people who bet more than pennies over a long period and don't declare income from gambling. Don't know the translation for the swedish term but after a while it's not considered tax negligence, it's plain fraud and the consequences can be brutal. Tax fraud is considered a very serious felony in sweden. If you're using 5dimes or pinnacle stop now or start declaring income.

Btw, they can go back many years so even if you don't get caught now, they can bring up your history so 5 years from now and ask you to show proof of where that money comes. There were many swedish poker pros that get caught a while back when the swedish IRS started seriously going after people who made money on the net. Even players who won money 3-5 years ago got their asses handed to them.

In the States there's ways to beat it if you really wanted to. Basically once your winnings go into your bank acct you could go to casinos and make withdrawals from their ATM's for amounts that (roughly) equal your winnings. Then claim that you lost that much $ at those casinos so your net gambling income was very small (or that you lost a little, whatever). The IRS has basically zero way to prove you didn't lose that $ at the casino, there's pretty much nothing they can do. You are legally allowed to apply gambling losses to your taxes just like you are supposed to claim winnings over a certain amount.

Of course I can't speak for anything outside the U.S. Probably not an option other places.

 

[UAK]

The US is so fucked with it since some states clearly say online gambling is illegal, yet the federal government would want you to declare the income. You also file state taxes, so it's a big clusterfuck. You declare the income from online gambling, you get audited for whatever reason, and you are essentially admitting to a crime.

Don't know much about US laws but isn't breaking gambling laws not that bad in comparsion to evading taxes?

I thought those laws were barely enforced on players. Being an operator is a different story though.

 

[Card]

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 184 http://www.fightmatrix.com/2015/02/24/fight-matrix-program-ufc-184-02-28-2015/

 

[Card]

Jay Primetown - http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-184-newcomer-breakdown-masio-fullen/

Two fighters that were unable to get a win on TUF Latin America are matched up in the opening fight of UFC 184. Masio Fullen is the striker while Alex “Rolo” Torres is the grappler. Fullen has decent cardio and will certainly push the pace for the majority of the fight. However, expect Torres to put Fullen on his back for large segments of the fight. Torres has an underrated double leg and is more than capable of outwrestling Fullen. As a +135 underdog (at time of publication on 5Dimes), there is a path to victory for Torres in this bout. TUF Latin America showed he cannot be trusted as poor fight IQ and loss of his concentration in a fight he was dominating cost him the win. Torres could certainly dominate from top position for 15 minutes or he can lose concentration and get submitted. This fight is a clear pass and one to sit back and watch.

 

[Card]

“I can assume, for me, I have [Josh Koscheck] will be the best he’s been. I’ve never had a conversation with the guy. I don’t know him at all. I just know from what I’ve seen. He’s been in a lot of fights. He definitely has a lot of wear and tear on his body. But for me, it’s more of that psychological battle. I’m not sure where his mind is, I can only assume he’ll be at his top game.”

 

[Turtleguard]

Krause + Lewis ITD pays +

 

[ninjadeathcult]

from last thread

PR: yea no FOTN, bets were all a push. i bought 50 of my friends FOTN action on barboza-MJ at evens (he had it at 3:1) after the fight, thinking it was a shoe in... but after the mir ko, i actually predicted the ufc would give 4 performances, 0 fotn's

other guys saying lewis is free money at -500: stop

did you not watch the fights last night? lol.

lewis is no world beater. dude's a big strong guy who has big gnp. he's not talented on the feet. he's got no real skillset other than power punching. should he win? sure. but -500 is far from "free $"

Its not even close IMO. I honestly believe that -1000 is more accurate as far as implied probability (and that factors in "Anything can happen at HW" argurment)

You know the sort of bets and odds I play so despite my belief that this is jail rape I wont be betting Lewis SU.

I was more making a point about the implied probability being off and I stand by that .
What will happen as Often does with these match ups is that the money will continue to come in on Lewis (already went from -385 to -500) and by fight time you guys will see Lewis at -600 or -700 and consider him unplayable . Then a bunch of people will throw away money on Potts.

Sorry bro not trying to sound like a dick about it . I do note your concerns and Lewis is not a world beater its true but you don't have to be to beat Potts.

Its not a "sexy" or "sharp" pick (being -500) but its the right one

 

[EzFlyer]

Wasn't trying to call you out at all, I understand what you're saying

 

[mkess101]

Its not even close IMO. I honestly believe that -1000 is more accurate as far as implied probability (and that factors in "Anything can happen at HW" argurment)

You know the sort of bets and odds I play so despite my belief that this is jail rape I wont be betting Lewis SU.

I was more making a point about the implied probability being off and I stand by that .
What will happen as Often does with these match ups is that the money will continue to come in on Lewis (already went from -385 to -500) and by fight time you guys will see Lewis at -600 or -700 and consider him unplayable . Then a bunch of people will throw away money on Potts.

Sorry bro not trying to sound like a dick about it . I do note your concerns and Lewis is not a world beater its true but you don't have to be to beat Potts.

Its not a "sexy" or "sharp" pick (being -500) but its the right one

It's funny because I basically agree with all of this. Potts is one of the worst HW's I can remember in the UFC (and I've been around awhile--I remember when Justin Eilers was a "can't miss" prospect and when Sean Gannon "earned" a fight in the UFC for his big victory over Kimbo Slice in a bareknuckle boxing match--then Gannon was summarily choked out by the legendary Brandon Lee Hinkle). In the big scheme of things Potts can fight, but he's not UFC caliber.

Lewis is extremely flawed but should seriously steamroll Potts, yet I cannot bring myself to lay these type of odds at HW. I just can't. It's as if I go to type in a wager and immediately a shooting pain runs up my arm that doesn't allow me to enter it in.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Isn't the under 1.5 the obvious play if you want to bet that fight? If Lewis wins he's gonna merk Potts early and it covers the chance Potts pulls something nutty out his arse.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I have Means at evens so far and also Ronda rd1 due to Cat being a slow starter and Ronda being a very fast one. I think that's a bad combination and Ronda probably gets her out of there quick. As for Means I favor him here so evens was a pretty surprising line to me and a must bet.

Love TDB here at -120. Think bookies confused Dhiego w/ Douglas. That said, Timmy is often hard to trust him at times as he tends to fight down to his opponents level often making things much closer than it ever should be. Regardless, at this wine I have to trust him to get the job done.

i think ellenberger gets a little too much criticism. i mean, yeah he's looked like shit in the last few fights but he went up against lawler, rory, and gastelum. those 3 >>>>> Kos (37 years old, 1.5 years of inactivity, coming off of two (t)ko losses). the odds arent great but a ko or decision prop is def worth a bet at least

Yep. Stylistically it is difficult to see Jake lose this fight.. However he often fights like a mental midget which is offensive to all mental midgets given the Matt Riddle like level of stupidity Jake often competes with. Also, Kos has one foot out of the door and his chin is all but gone at this point. We also cannot forget that he was actually getting out boxed by Matt Hughes a few fights back if that was possible -- and due to video footage it is. So with all that we know about both of these two fighters I have to side w/ heavily with the younger more athletic Burger.

I.think I was the only one that said free money but it was 88 percent sarcasm. I even used italic.

No..It was my boy NDC .. See..

Spoiler

Derrick Lewis -500 ish seems like free money for on 20 cents in the dollar. Or a safe as house parlay leg

This will be brutal . I felt uneasy watching Potts fights in the UFC . They felt more like the feeling when you watch one of those street fight videos where one guy has no idea what he is doing goes against a Big black guy you beats the shit out of him. You feel sorry for him and hope he doesn't get hurt too bad.

Derrick Lewis is that big black guy and Ruan Potts is that white guy in over his head that we should feel sorry for. Its morally questionable making this fight to begin with.

Potts will get a concussion and his walking papers very shortly.

That said, BB should hulk smash Potts.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I just looked at 12thman's betting tips for last event. If I calculated right, he had a loss of 6.85 units. I have no idea how he thinks he's going to have a 20% ROI this year. I'm pretty sure he's sitting at 4% or less right now.

You just can't risk your money on it. I mean, it could go anyway. It could go in 3 seconds or it could last all three rounds - who the hell knows. I mean, this is (in effect) a reflection on the current state of the heavyweight division in MMA. Though truthfully you can not single out MMA or UFC when it comes to poor heavyweight fighters as boxing has a terrible bench itself. I mean, the US has not had a good heavyweight boxer for years and the Klitschko brothers have ran roughshod over the division for a decade-plus . Thre's just been a dearth of talent at HW because big guys go to other sports like football and basketball. Once you get outside of the top 10 MMA heavyweight do you really hit the bottom of the barrel