Here we are: Wednesday AM. We see what the lines are.
It is very early. I am only looking at three lines as of 7:13AM. But, that is enough to make the point. We have the BOS/ATL matchup line, and the SAC/MIN line, and they just put up the CLE/BKN line.
ATL -4 is offered. Our "true line" says that they should only have to give up 1 to BOS. So, we take BOS +4 in this case instead.
SAC +2 is offered. Damn, our "true line" had this at PICK 'EM with a SAC lean, so if they want to give us two points to take the team we are leaning towards, then God bless 'em. We go with SAC +2
BKN is giving 10 on this line. Our "true line" says they should be giving them only 6, so without any other information, we would jump on CLE +10. "But wait, there's more." A key, young player for the Cavs was recently injured, so that BKN -10 is very justified. I could look up the average +/- for Mobley, but why bother. I know he is worth at least four, if not more. BKN played hard against GS last night, while the Cavs were resting. This has a small probability of a trap game for the Nets. This adds more fuel to the CLE +10 case. What would you do? I have been a Cavs fan for about forty-seven (47) years, so the homer instincts need to be tamed down. :-/
CLE +10