Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

[iGnP]

Kansas City Chiefs proposition bet predictions (based on computer simulations):
Thursday Night Football, Dec 16, 2021
Chiefs vs. Chargers

Chiefs Passing
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 231
Patrick Mahomes TD = 3
Patrick Mahomes INT = 1

Chiefs Receiving
Mecole Hardman YDS = 66
Byron Pringle YDS = 55
Tyreek Hill YDS = 33
Travis Kelce YDS = 27

Chiefs Running
Darrel Williams YDS = 46
Clyde Edwards-Helaire YDS = 15
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 10

Note: These simulations take into account a predicted final score of 24-21, Chargers over Chiefs

I'll eat a tub of mayo if Hill and Kelce combine for 60 yards without injuries playing a part in it lol

 

[Black Paladin]

I'll eat a tub of mayo if Hill and Kelce combine for 60 yards without injuries playing a part in it lol

It's what the prediction says. The computer prefers Hellman's.
I thought about changing it, but I said, NO, we are going with the true output. We can't improve it if we don't look at it purely.

Seriously, I am experimenting with different prediction methods. This particular method is using the average team totals prediction (1000 simulations) from one method, and out of the 1000+ simulations of a SEPARATE method, we are taking the player prop predictions from a particular game that most resembles the predicted scores.

 

[iGnP]

It's what the prediction says. The computer prefers Hellman's.
I thought about changing it, but I said, NO, we are going with the true output. We can't improve it if we don't look at it purely.

Seriously, I am experimenting with different prediction methods. This particular method is using the average team totals prediction (1000 simulations) from one method, and out of the 1000+ simulations of a SEPARATE method, we are taking the player prop predictions from a particular game that most resembles the predicted scores.

I know im just giving you a hard time. I wish you good luck in your model. I made a really really inaccurate one a few years ago and i was tweaking it for the positive but i really fell off once I started school because I couldnt keep up with it

 

[guesswhoseback]

Did pretty decent today day off on horse betting came up like 220$ then lost 40 in slots. as soon as I hit my first bet it was a 5$ WPS bet so cost me 15 I got like 82 back dont remeber the exact amount so in case if i lost all my money I did 3 no chance in hell future world series champions 25$ on the pirates+50000 25$ on the oriles+50000 and 25$ on the Diamondbacks+25000

 

[Black Paladin]

Kansas City Chiefs proposition bet predictions (based on computer simulations):
Thursday Night Football, Dec 16, 2021
Chiefs vs. Chargers

Chiefs Passing
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 231
Patrick Mahomes TD = 3
Patrick Mahomes INT = 1

Chiefs Receiving
Mecole Hardman YDS = 66
Byron Pringle YDS = 55
Tyreek Hill YDS = 33
Travis Kelce YDS = 27

Chiefs Running
Darrel Williams YDS = 46
Clyde Edwards-Helaire YDS = 15
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 10

Note: These simulations take into account a predicted final score of 24-21, Chargers over Chiefs

The game isn't over yet, but this is.

The INT prediction was spot on. Everything else? Back to the drawing board.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I'll eat a tub of mayo if Hill and Kelce combine for 60 yards without injuries playing a part in it lol

combining for 600 yards was closer than 60 <45>

 

[Black Paladin]

combining for 600 yards was closer than 60 <45>

That's actually pretty funny!!!

It's better if it's horribly bad. From an engineering perspective, if it's a catastrophic break early on, it can save you quite a bit of resources not going down an unproductive path.

 

[Bakayoko]

I'll put some opinions on the basketball euroleague when I see smth good.It has been solid plus money for me last few weeks.

 

[guesswhoseback]

GOD I LOVE THOSE LATE NIGHT AUSTRLIAN RACE TRACKS USUALLY LIKE 15 HORSES IN EACH RACE I HIT A 380$ Pick 3 I spent 3.80 I made it a 40 center instead of a 20 center

 

[Black Paladin]

English Premier League

I don't be much soccer/(non-USA FOOTBALL).

Parlay
Tottenham Hotspur +110
Crystal Palace -120

 

[guesswhoseback]

HEY I KNOW THIS ISNT THE FOOTBALL BOARD BUT SINCE IM UP A GOOD AMOUNT RECENTLY. I WANT TO DO AN NFL PARLAY THING THAT I DO FOR UFC 10 people total myself included spreads and ov/un only you can mix and match as well like the eagles and the under whatever you like 8 teamer for 5$ if you win. I will send you half the money but it will have to be on monday because I work late tommorow and I wont have time to go to the casino and cash the ticket or whatever I also downloaded zelle as well so now I have cash app,zelle and paypal I dont really know how paypal works I just send my buddy money threw facebook and it goes to his paypal. If you make your picks I will send you a pick of the ticket private message because apparently someone hacked someones account on here and thats why they deactavictaed there account. if whatever line you put and the line is different ill just take whatever line my book says because I dont feel like going back and forth seeing if you want this line or whatever BOL to all. I cant start a new topic because I am double yellow carded I have no idea why I am as well

Mine will be

Eagles-4.5
Cheifs-3.5
Titans-3
Bucs-12.5
Raiders-OV45
Panthers-OV 37.5
Dolphins-OV 40
49ers-UN 44

 

[Bakayoko]

1u on euroleague basketball parlay:
CSKA Moscow-Milano Milano +11 1,40 x Lyon-Villeurbane-Crvena Zvezda Zvezda +8 1,30
CSKA should win but I'm not impressed by them so far and Milano should cover the alternative point spread.The other game is a coin flip,to be more confident I put +8 on Zvezda.

 

[Bakayoko]

1u on euroleague basketball parlay:
CSKA Moscow-Milano Milano +11 1,40 x Lyon-Villeurbane-Crvena Zvezda Zvezda +8 1,30
CSKA should win but I'm not impressed by them so far and Milano should cover the alternative point spread.The other game is a coin flip,to be more confident I put +8 on Zvezda.

Got it.Milano won and Zvezda lost by two.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

How, exactly? I was responding to some burger who thinks Russia has been "demolished" in every war it's ever been in. I listed the major powers they fought and defeated, and you think that's a "kneejerk reaction"? God you Americans are something else.



And the French, Ottomans, Persians, Khanates? You conveniently left those out. We both know why.



Are you upset by me pointing out the CIA trained the Taliban? What could be the other reason you'd type such nonsense? lol



So it's okay for you to respond here, but I can't? Again, that American arrogance. Thank god your country's days are numbered.

FFS, who the hell didn't know we were arming the Taliban with stinger missiles? There were American movies BRAGGING about it less than a decade after it happened!

I left the rest out because I'm not trying to have a massive discussion about Russia's entire history of global conflicts in the motherfucking betting forum LMAO.

It's actually NOT okay for me to respond, and if you noticed I chastised myself for it and will now call myself out again. I should NOT be responding to you here, and I won't again. If you need the last word, please take it. Tell me some silliness about how as an American "my days are numbered" or whatever else will make you feel good. I'll continue to be able to spend my US dollars basically anywhere I travel outside my own country...you continue counting the days until my demise or whatever. Bye.

hey boys, if you want to chat this stuff please go to the war room. This is a betting sub, let’s keep it on topic please. Thank you.

 

[Bakayoko]

Basketball Euroleague,1u on:
Unics Kazan vs CSKA Unics +7 1,40 x
Bayern Munchen vs ALBA Berlin Bayern ML 1,35

 

[Black Paladin]

His grandfather, etc. used to have the family business (car repair/sales, etc.) located near my old neighborhood in Akron over forty years ago.

I knew he would break through eventually. What a way to do it!: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/golf...i-international-follow-up-spt-intl/index.html

 

[Black Paladin]

 

[Black Paladin]

NFL teams are making moves. I follow the TEAM first, then the players.

Some people will have five or six jerseys, sniffing after some player from job to job. If he's a true journeyman, you might need a separate closet.

 

[Bakayoko]

Lakers to make the playoffs are sitting at 9,00 on bet365.Yeah,I know they suck and they need to get to the play-ins first and then win two games there,but they will get both Davis and Lebron back probably tonight and those odds could be worth it a small bet,can't just write off Bron and AD,thoughts?

 

[Black Paladin]

Lakers to make the playoffs are sitting at 9,00 on bet365.Yeah,I know they suck and they need to get to the play-ins first and then win two games there,but they will get both Davis and Lebron back probably tonight and those odds could be worth it a small bet,can't just write off Bron and AD,thoughts?

How do they say it in Brit-speak?: "It's worth a small punt."

You may have not heard or remember this betting wisdom that I found out about years ago. I will apply it to your situation.

If you think that LeBron and AD coming back will put the Lakers into a decent position to make the playoffs, you will have a better chance simply betting the games they need to win to get there.

Instead of betting 9,00 odds they make it, make money on the road getting there. This way, you will most likely profit even if they don't make the playoffs. That is, if you are correct in your thoughts that LeBron and AD will get some fire into them.