Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

I can't find BKFC lines anywhere, the one place I did find them doesn't have the fight I'm trying to bet.

Edit: nvm they dropped the lines. The dude was -115 days ago, -800 now, fuck
 
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Top-10 NCAA teams will cover today. They need to impress the ranking committee to try to move into the playoffs.

I was about 50% right. In general, I stick with it. It was a bad ("good"?) week for upsets in the Top-10 this week, especially conference games.
 
Using power rankings, but now for NBA.

It's best to start a day in advance on the schedule. The power rankings only change slightly after the results of the "current" games, plus, you can't fully utilize the predictions if you don't have a chance to take advantage of opening lines.

NBA
November 17, 2021

("True line" rounded to the nearest half-point; upsets denoted by *)

WSH +0.5 = *
IND -5
ATL -1
BKN -6
MIA -6.5
NY -6
MIL -2
SAC/MIN = pick 'em! (lean Sacramento)
OKC -0.5 (home court advantage --> -3.5 )
PHX -2
POR -1

We'll revisit this tomorrow morning to see what the opening lines have to say. Then, later on Wednesday evening, we'll see what the players and coaches have to say.
 
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Here we are: Wednesday AM. We see what the lines are.

It is very early. I am only looking at three lines as of 7:13AM. But, that is enough to make the point. We have the BOS/ATL matchup line, and the SAC/MIN line, and they just put up the CLE/BKN line.

ATL -4 is offered. Our "true line" says that they should only have to give up 1 to BOS. So, we take BOS +4 in this case instead.

SAC +2 is offered. Damn, our "true line" had this at PICK 'EM with a SAC lean, so if they want to give us two points to take the team we are leaning towards, then God bless 'em. We go with SAC +2

BKN is giving 10 on this line. Our "true line" says they should be giving them only 6, so without any other information, we would jump on CLE +10. "But wait, there's more." A key, young player for the Cavs was recently injured, so that BKN -10 is very justified. I could look up the average +/- for Mobley, but why bother. I know he is worth at least four, if not more. BKN played hard against GS last night, while the Cavs were resting. This has a small probability of a trap game for the Nets. This adds more fuel to the CLE +10 case. What would you do? I have been a Cavs fan for about forty-seven (47) years, so the homer instincts need to be tamed down. :-/

CLE +10
 
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By the numbers (simulations)

Mavericks +3.5-------OVER 211.5
Pistons +7-------------UNDER 211.5
Knicks +5.5-----------OVER 211
Nuggets +7.5---------OVER 209.5
Warriors -9------------UNDER 217.5
 
Not tail worthy but probably my only NCAA Bball bet on the year

Michigan/Arizona u146.5
 
NBA_75-690x588.jpg


Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

Portland can give Sacramento 8 to 10 on most nights and still cover.

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield 19.5
Harrison Barnes 19.0
De'Aaron Fox 20.5
Tyrese Haliburton 16.5
Richaun Holmes 12.5

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Portland Trail Blazers
CJ McCollum 24.0
Norman Powell 22.5
Damian Lillard 18.5
Anfernee Simons 14.5
Jusuf Nurkic 14
 
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NBA_75-690x588.jpg


Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

Portland can give Sacramento 8 to 10 on most nights and still cover.

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield 19.5
Harrison Barnes 19.0
De'Aaron Fox 20.5
Tyrese Haliburton 16.5
Richaun Holmes 12.5

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Portland Trail Blazers
CJ McCollum 24.0
Norman Powell 22.5
Damian Lillard 18.5
Anfernee Simons 14.5
Jusuf Nurkic 14
I made a year long NBA thread just FYI but I’ll post my reply here too this like feels very trappy. Kings suck but they just fired Walton and that usually galvanizes teams in the short term. Blazers have been really bipolar in their home and away performances/effort. GL. I’m gonna try to take a shot on the Kings at an inflated live line bc I can’t see them winning this game from start to end. Blazers will have runs and get this line to somewhere in the +5 or +180 ML range where I’ll look to take a shot
 
Kings now on my Do-Not-Bet list. Childish shit from Fox to get ejected like that
 
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield 19.5 22
Harrison Barnes 19.0 13
De'Aaron Fox 20.5 21
Tyrese Haliburton 16.5 6
Richaun Holmes 12.5 0 DNP

Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Portland Trail Blazers
CJ McCollum 24.0 13
Norman Powell 22.5 22
Damian Lillard 18.5 32
Anfernee Simons 14.5 0 DNP
Jusuf Nurkic 14 28
 
I need to use enough iterations to get better stats projections. Also, for ANY sport, if I am serious, I would need to check injuries, etc. and adjust lineups accordingly.
 
Suns playing warriors tomorrow should be good.

suns -2.5 is also interesting
 
Anyone got a lean on Georgia/Alabama? Looking to LB as I missed kick off

Gut tells me Bama getting 6.5 was too many
 
Anyone got a lean on Georgia/Alabama? Looking to LB as I missed kick off

Gut tells me Bama getting 6.5 was too many
Like Georgia here if you can get them under a td. They have dominated the game up to this point imo and just had one blown coverage. There defense should be alright

Edit: Bama marches right down the field
Edit2: I couldn’t have been more wrong
 
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Anyone got a lean on Georgia/Alabama? Looking to LB as I missed kick off

Gut tells me Bama getting 6.5 was too many

Been watching but can't get a good read on it at all. (To be fair, I've watched less college football this year than ever before). Georgia's front 7 are unreal, Bama can't run the ball and the QB is getting pressured on most dropbacks. But the few plays he's had time to throw, the Bama WR's look to be better than the Georgia DB's.

Georgia's QB looked a little shaky (Bama should have had a pick 6 but the guy dropped it) but has seemed to level out.
 
Live odds are even right now. Hmmm
 
i got cincinnati to win championship at +5000 and last i checked it was lil above +1000 range now, monitoring their games with interest lately. prob doesn't win but was a fun small bet don't really follow ncaaf at all lol
 
Kansas City Chiefs proposition bet predictions (based on computer simulations):
Thursday Night Football, Dec 16, 2021
Chiefs vs. Chargers

Chiefs Passing
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 231
Patrick Mahomes TD = 3
Patrick Mahomes INT = 1

Chiefs Receiving
Mecole Hardman YDS = 66
Byron Pringle YDS = 55
Tyreek Hill YDS = 33
Travis Kelce YDS = 27

Chiefs Running
Darrel Williams YDS = 46
Clyde Edwards-Helaire YDS = 15
Patrick Mahomes YDS = 10

Note: These simulations take into account a predicted final score of 24-21, Chargers over Chiefs
 
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