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Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Black Paladin, Jul 3, 2018.

  1. I can't find BKFC lines anywhere, the one place I did find them doesn't have the fight I'm trying to bet.

    Edit: nvm they dropped the lines. The dude was -115 days ago, -800 now, fuck
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 6, 2021
  2. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    I was about 50% right. In general, I stick with it. It was a bad ("good"?) week for upsets in the Top-10 this week, especially conference games.
     
  3. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Using power rankings, but now for NBA.

    It's best to start a day in advance on the schedule. The power rankings only change slightly after the results of the "current" games, plus, you can't fully utilize the predictions if you don't have a chance to take advantage of opening lines.

    NBA
    November 17, 2021

    ("True line" rounded to the nearest half-point; upsets denoted by *)

    WSH +0.5 = *
    IND -5
    ATL -1
    BKN -6
    MIA -6.5
    NY -6
    MIL -2
    SAC/MIN = pick 'em! (lean Sacramento)
    OKC -0.5 (home court advantage --> -3.5 )
    PHX -2
    POR -1

    We'll revisit this tomorrow morning to see what the opening lines have to say. Then, later on Wednesday evening, we'll see what the players and coaches have to say.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2021
  4. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Here we are: Wednesday AM. We see what the lines are.

    It is very early. I am only looking at three lines as of 7:13AM. But, that is enough to make the point. We have the BOS/ATL matchup line, and the SAC/MIN line, and they just put up the CLE/BKN line.

    ATL -4 is offered. Our "true line" says that they should only have to give up 1 to BOS. So, we take BOS +4 in this case instead.

    SAC +2 is offered. Damn, our "true line" had this at PICK 'EM with a SAC lean, so if they want to give us two points to take the team we are leaning towards, then God bless 'em. We go with SAC +2

    BKN is giving 10 on this line. Our "true line" says they should be giving them only 6, so without any other information, we would jump on CLE +10. "But wait, there's more." A key, young player for the Cavs was recently injured, so that BKN -10 is very justified. I could look up the average +/- for Mobley, but why bother. I know he is worth at least four, if not more. BKN played hard against GS last night, while the Cavs were resting. This has a small probability of a trap game for the Nets. This adds more fuel to the CLE +10 case. What would you do? I have been a Cavs fan for about forty-seven (47) years, so the homer instincts need to be tamed down. :-/

    CLE +10
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2021
  5. Mmm Ray @ +8000 cashes, wish I added more to it
     
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  6. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    By the numbers (simulations)

    Mavericks +3.5-------OVER 211.5
    Pistons +7-------------UNDER 211.5
    Knicks +5.5-----------OVER 211
    Nuggets +7.5---------OVER 209.5
    Warriors -9------------UNDER 217.5
     
  7. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Not tail worthy but probably my only NCAA Bball bet on the year

    Michigan/Arizona u146.5
     
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  8. iGnP Silver Belt

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    And with that, I end the season undefeated

    *takes bow*
     
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  9. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    [​IMG]

    Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

    Portland can give Sacramento 8 to 10 on most nights and still cover.

    Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Sacramento Kings
    Buddy Hield 19.5
    Harrison Barnes 19.0
    De'Aaron Fox 20.5
    Tyrese Haliburton 16.5
    Richaun Holmes 12.5

    Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Portland Trail Blazers
    CJ McCollum 24.0
    Norman Powell 22.5
    Damian Lillard 18.5
    Anfernee Simons 14.5
    Jusuf Nurkic 14
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021 at 9:10 AM
  10. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I made a year long NBA thread just FYI but I’ll post my reply here too this like feels very trappy. Kings suck but they just fired Walton and that usually galvanizes teams in the short term. Blazers have been really bipolar in their home and away performances/effort. GL. I’m gonna try to take a shot on the Kings at an inflated live line bc I can’t see them winning this game from start to end. Blazers will have runs and get this line to somewhere in the +5 or +180 ML range where I’ll look to take a shot
     
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  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Kings now on my Do-Not-Bet list. Childish shit from Fox to get ejected like that
     
  12. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

    Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Sacramento Kings
    Buddy Hield 19.5 22
    Harrison Barnes 19.0 13
    De'Aaron Fox 20.5 21
    Tyrese Haliburton 16.5 6
    Richaun Holmes 12.5 0 DNP

    Top-5 Projections: (based on simulations)----Portland Trail Blazers
    CJ McCollum 24.0 13
    Norman Powell 22.5 22
    Damian Lillard 18.5 32
    Anfernee Simons 14.5 0 DNP
    Jusuf Nurkic 14 28
     
  13. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    I need to use enough iterations to get better stats projections. Also, for ANY sport, if I am serious, I would need to check injuries, etc. and adjust lineups accordingly.
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Suns playing warriors tomorrow should be good.

    suns -2.5 is also interesting
     
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