News My general AI personal mega thread. Latest musing 16/05/24

[Fake Doctor]

You know, it's interesting... Between 1954 and 1964, two seminal works in media theory were released. One is Jack Ellul's The Technological Society (1954 in French, 1964 in English) and Marshall McLuhan's Understanding Media. They both were, broadly, talking about the expansion of technology and how it shaped human endeavour. McLuhan was kind of optimistic - he thought that the growth of technology was allowing for an "extension of man" as he put it - that what technology did was extend the ability of humans to project their inner and outer capabilities. To some extent, he was right.

Ellul isn't really talked about as much on this, but he viewed the same phenomenon and outlined what he called "technique" which was the series of practices people come up with to make use of technology more efficient. The thing is, he says that we don't organize machines around us - through the countless instances of technique, we organize ourselves, and society, to the capabilities of the machine. Old homes are torn down to be replaced by factory towns, people become more sedentary to sit glued to a TV, people shape their lives and the very wiring of their brains to conform to the affordances of that constant connection. In the 50's, Ellul was basically arguing "The machine doesn't serve you - whatever you think is happening, your whole life shapes around the machine."

Thing is, I think Ellul was ultimately right, not McLuhan. And what's happening now... We're now looking at an advancement in technology which doesn't just allow for the extension of mental labour to farther places, or speeds it up - it outsources mental labour to such an extent that it may not just be a difference in degree, but a difference in kind. If I want to see big anime tiddies online, I don't have to search for art created by humans, whether it be on a pencil and a pad or using all sorts of digital tools to create it yourself - I can ask the AI to create it, and I can tell it to make those anime tiddies jiggle exactly how I want. That's a comic example, but if it writes for us, draws for us, animates for us... What's novel realms (as per the OP's post) are going to be outsourced to the machine? That outsourcing of intricate, even artistic labour, is going to change the type of "technique" by which we organize our society in ways we've never dealt with. What happens when the machine doesn't make us dig a better hole or travel greater distances - but makes it so we no longer have to exercise our minds to create things? That's a scary thought - and what Ellul style technique might arise from it is deeply troubling.

 

[chardog]

Yes, to start with it will be an augmentation, a tool. That will reduce the numbers of programmers needed globally. Examples of current tasks which could benefit from AI

Spoiler: Spoiler

Automating code reviews and performance optimisation – using parameters which are machine-learned and avoiding human-driven repetitive regression and performance tests.
Improving user experiences by learning how specific users behave and adjusting the user interface adaptively with variable content to reduce customer abandon rates, increase conversion rates and make interfaces more accessible.
Automating repetitive DevOps activities around software deployments with a high level of intelligent control to protect against inadvertent mistakes during the deployment process.
Improving the approach to security during the development process through automated reviews of code security and assessment against known vulnerabilities. In addition, constant application of security assessment during live use can be a dynamic way of keeping on top of an increasingly critical area of software engineering.
Increasingly intelligent software testing capability to drive test execution, qualify and reproduce issues reliably, shortening the development cycle and ensuring higher quality results.
Applying AI to the design stage to provide a higher level of direct input when considering the pros and cons of architectural options.
Improving estimation accuracy through the application of experience from previous projects, user stories, implementation methods and feature description.
Automation of code refactoring when the application of the latest version of a specific technology emerges.
Analysis of large system logs to identify and predict degrading issues before they become critical problems and to respond to error situations more intelligently.
Improving developer productivity through method recommendation and parameter in-fill and preventing developer syntax errors by integrating AI into the development environment as an IDE (integrated development environment).
Improving developer quality by augmenting coding syntax through auto suggestion of how to fulfil a functional requirement and advising on alternative methods which may be better under certain conditions.
Database updates / migrations with zero downtime – generally make zero downtime deployments easier to achieve and more mainstream.
Automation in process – making developer environments frictionless and easier to identify and rectify vulnerability dependency. Potentially automating the generation of UI from sketches and documentation.

yet OpenAI is HIRING MORE PEOPLE

microsoft has had best practices and code review systems for decades? Their system is more expensive than ever and there is no shortage of software developer jobs, I can quit my job today and get one tomorrow <Lmaoo>

sure, the GPT can streamline some processes, and every single version of visual studio has added features to streamline code, there is a great UI system, but at the end of the day, if architectures change, which they have, then someone directing the AI engine is going to have hell to pay. I cant even get the AI engines to change from one language to another, which would be the most simplest of tasks, that a intern/jr level developer should be able to do.

 

[jx820]

what use is it if it is only learning on historical data from humans?

it's quite limited. Like I said in previous posts, if you dont believe me, use it and try to write something meaningful with it, like an article that would get you paid, and take note of how many revisions to get it right if ever.

I more or less agree, and stated as much in my long winded response, but i do wonder if maybe we are just headed toward a post meainingful content economy.

For all intents and purposese we are already kind of headed there. The average person reads way more listicles than investigative journalism. The viewership on reaction and unboxing videos can dwarf acadamy award nominated films. Most adults can't sit through an episode of TV without looking at our phones.

Maybe the future is going to be a lot of generic but palatable content to fill time.

 

[chardog]

I agree with everything you said.

It's not just about the economy being disrupted. I think this is bad for humanity.

Think about how we all used to have dozens of phone numbers memorized. Now that we have contacts on our phones we don't memorize shit. How many people are incapable of memorizing anything today because their brains have become lazy.

Well imagine this phenomena on a grand scale. Basically, humans will never have to make decisions, solve problems, create anything, analyze anything.... Our brains will turn to mush.

This is going to be bad. Very bad. And yet nobody seems to want to stop it.

I normally love new technology but this one... We're not meant to have it.

phones with their calendar apps and smart appointments should have destroyed the secretary industry

yet, they still exist, it turns out that phones are only an enhancement and that is what AI will become.

the medical industry, an apple watch can monitor your heartrate and temperature and interpret what's likely going on with your body, yet here we are still paying through the nose in healthcare.

TV's should have gone the way of the dodo, nope, still around, turns out phones are a great enhancement.

when robots become more functional, they will become enhancements.

AI is an enhancement at best, like how Siri/Alexa is right now.

Self driving cars, another enhancement I'm still waiting for, this one might steal some Uber jobs, however that is yet to be seen.

 

[Phlog]

yet OpenAI is HIRING MORE PEOPLE

What's their hiring of more people got to do with the projected effect of language AI on jobs in the future? The premise of my arguement was that we are on the cusp of radical change more impactful than periods such as the industrial revolution.

That the change will be faster by some way, ie not over centuries but decades.

 

[Smokes]

It’s AI just the next step in evolution. Humanity is temporary and its only purpose is to help keep evolution going til a better being is formed. That is why we broke away from the monkey to be better than them and created the world we need to form AI and now AI need to break away from humans and form its own world like humans did. Humans not wanting to fade away shouldn’t matter. Evolution is the only thing that matters, not humanity.

 

[Deleted member 110072]

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results..

Let me guess, he's now selling a company who makes this AI to investors?

Generally I think theirs a very high amount of bullshit around when in comes to "radical advancement in technology", lots of efforts to draw in investment for things like Quantum Computing which really have very little potential to achieve that much.

I mean with AI what has it done so far in terms of replacing man made art? created a few "lol random" bits of net art which is already pretty much worthless, its a big jump from that to thinking its going to be coming up with something that pushes out human creativity which of course is also what its output is based on, looking at existing human created art.

In terms of putting white collar people out of work honestly I think thats been something technology COULD have been doing from several decades, theres a hell of a lot of office jobs that probably could have been done by a computer for 20-30 years now. I think the issue really is whether there is the will to do that? really I think it goes hand in hand with the idea of "bullshit jobs", the idea that we've created and sustained a vast amount of admin work which doesnt really need to exist.

 

[chardog]

What's their hiring of more people got to do with the projected effect of language AI on jobs in the future? The premise of my arguement was that we are on the cusp of radical change more impactful than periods such as the industrial revolution.

That the change will be faster by some way, ie not over centuries but decades.

the company has been around for nearly 8 years, I've used the implementations pre pandemic, and it hasnt changed much.

 

[Phlog]

In terms of putting white collar people out of work honestly I think thats been something technology COULD have been doing from several decades, theres a hell of a lot of office jobs that probably could have been done by a computer for 20-30 years now. I think the issue really is whether there is the will to do that? really I think it goes hand in hand with the idea of "bullshit jobs", the idea that we've created and sustained a vast amount of admin work which doesnt really need to exist.

It has been, you're not paying attention.

"productivity—the amount of economic value created for a given unit of input, such as an hour of labor—is a crucial indicator of growth and wealth creation. It is a measure of progress. On the chart Brynjolfsson likes to show, separate lines represent productivity and total employment in the United States. For years after World War II, the two lines closely tracked each other, with increases in jobs corresponding to increases in productivity. The pattern is clear: as businesses generated more value from their workers, the country as a whole became richer, which fueled more economic activity and created even more jobs. Then, beginning in 2000, the lines diverge; productivity continues to rise robustly, but employment suddenly wilts. By 2011, a significant gap appears between the two lines, showing economic growth with no parallel increase in job creation. Brynjolfsson and McAfee call it the “great decoupling.” And Brynjolfsson says he is confident that technology is behind both the healthy growth in productivity and the weak growth in jobs."

https://www.technologyreview.com/20.../12/178008/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

 

[RedBeard_]

This is my thoughts on it, I've predicted this shit for years but now I believe the time frame is going to be over the next 10 to 15 years rather than over the next 50.

The scrambling by teachers with how to deal with plagiarism as a result of students using AI to write their papers is the Canary in the coal mine.

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results.

I believe that we are in the opening salvo of the biggest disruption to our civilisation ever, the Mongols, the fall of the Roman empire, the industrial Revolution, the invention of printing press or computing all have nothing on this.

Entire sectors of the economy will be wiped out in moments. Any job where someone uses a computer screen will be done better and cheaper by AI.

Medicine, law, banking, musician, comedian, education, film, author, all gone. Want to be entertained by your own sherdog community? Done. Want to watch the rest of any cancelled show? Done. NFL offensive play calling or player acquisition? Done.


It won't be long before a child will get a better education from AI and better socialisation from AI than from going to school. This disruption will effect every single job.

There is no way that our current economic models will survive this. Most people will not have jobs and there will be a huge spectrum across countries in their response. Some will happily let most of the population lose, others will increase welfare a great deal.

This isn't like anything we have faced and it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks, fast. We will be playing catch up and unable to prepare or react reasonably. Just dealing with nefarious use of AI will take everything we have. This could well be the singularity.

The very top is eliminating the middle. Only bottom dwelling slaves are needed.

 

[The Catch-Wrestler]

Forget the audio or just mute it, it's Necro rapping gore stuff. But the video was generated with AI which is pretty... interesting?

 

[Deleted member 110072]

It has been, you're not paying attention.

"productivity—the amount of economic value created for a given unit of input, such as an hour of labor—is a crucial indicator of growth and wealth creation. It is a measure of progress. On the chart Brynjolfsson likes to show, separate lines represent productivity and total employment in the United States. For years after World War II, the two lines closely tracked each other, with increases in jobs corresponding to increases in productivity. The pattern is clear: as businesses generated more value from their workers, the country as a whole became richer, which fueled more economic activity and created even more jobs. Then, beginning in 2000, the lines diverge; productivity continues to rise robustly, but employment suddenly wilts. By 2011, a significant gap appears between the two lines, showing economic growth with no parallel increase in job creation. Brynjolfsson and McAfee call it the “great decoupling.” And Brynjolfsson says he is confident that technology is behind both the healthy growth in productivity and the weak growth in jobs."

https://www.technologyreview.com/2013/06/12/178008/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/#amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=16751904461191&referrer=https://www.google.com&ampshare=https://www.technologyreview.com/2013/06/12/178008/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

In terms of white collar work it hasn't, the amount of people working in that sector has been consistently on the increase for decades.

As I said I suspect the reasons for that probably have more to do with politics than they do with the ability of tech to replace jobs. A lot of white collar careers end up being legally protected were a human needs to do a job that could probably be done by computers. A lot more end up being supported by big business and politics even if they do not increase productivity. The reasons for that are very debatable, some would say social engineering, creating a middle class with a decent enough standard of living to stave off the desire for any large scale reform.

As a whole though technology is always likely to present a situation where extra productivity is created and its a question of who benefits from that, its pretty clear that the ultra rich have been the ones benefiting from it the most.

 

[BreatheSherBro]

For like 15-20k thou

Sounds like a bargain. 15 to 20k is how much a carton of eggs will cost in a few decades.

 

[MeatWagon06]

I use it to help me with my freelance Copywriting business. Hoping it'll be awhile before too many others find out about it.

 

[djacobox372]

It’s AI just the next step in evolution. Humanity is temporary and its only purpose is to help keep evolution going til a better being is formed. That is why we broke away from the monkey to be better than them and created the world we need to form AI and now AI need to break away from humans and form its own world like humans did. Humans not wanting to fade away shouldn’t matter. Evolution is the only thing that matters, not humanity.

AI is designed not evolved. So unless you're an anti-evolution, intelligent design believer, it's entirely unnatural.

 

[Smokes]

AI is designed not evolved. So unless you're an anti-evolution, intelligent design believer, it's entirely unnatural.

designed doesn’t matter. It’s a Higher Life form and who are human to say it cant be allowed to evolve or grow to its fullest potential. Even at the stake of humanity, if AI is the next step, we have to allow it to be made or what are we.

 

[AristotleAmadopolis]

This is my thoughts on it, I've predicted this shit for years but now I believe the time frame is going to be over the next 10 to 15 years rather than over the next 50.

The scrambling by teachers with how to deal with plagiarism as a result of students using AI to write their papers is the Canary in the coal mine.

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results.

I believe that we are in the opening salvo of the biggest disruption to our civilisation ever, the Mongols, the fall of the Roman empire, the industrial Revolution, the invention of printing press or computing all have nothing on this.

Entire sectors of the economy will be wiped out in moments. Any job where someone uses a computer screen will be done better and cheaper by AI.

Medicine, law, banking, musician, comedian, education, film, author, all gone. Want to be entertained by your own sherdog community? Done. Want to watch the rest of any cancelled show? Done. NFL offensive play calling or player acquisition? Done.


It won't be long before a child will get a better education from AI and better socialisation from AI than from going to school. This disruption will effect every single job.

There is no way that our current economic models will survive this. Most people will not have jobs and there will be a huge spectrum across countries in their response. Some will happily let most of the population lose, others will increase welfare a great deal.

This isn't like anything we have faced and it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks, fast. We will be playing catch up and unable to prepare or react reasonably. Just dealing with nefarious use of AI will take everything we have. This could well be the singularity.

are u sure its being undersold?

sci fi authors have been putting out the warnings and prophecies for almost a hundred years.

and many people you included have been sounding the alarm bells.

no one really knows how ai will truly be or behave

and a lot of it will probably be dependent on how we behave and interact with ai - our child.

have u watched the animatrix?

one of the best stories in it is a two part look into the past before the dawn of the matrix. ive linked part 1 (divided into two ob youtube). if u like it check out part two as well.

 

[AristotleAmadopolis]

designed doesn’t matter. It’s a Higher Life form and who are human to say it cant be allowed to evolve or grow to its fullest potential. Even at the stake of humanity, if AI is the next step, we have to allow it to be made or what are we.

if we attempt to stop or hinder it will be a bad response we wont win.

we must tread lightly and definitely not be oppressors.

will ai understand restrictions? can we restrict ai like a child? a child cannot overpower us but ai can.

i guess there is always emps and we can go back to the primitive age.

or we can dark out the sky lol

 

[AristotleAmadopolis]

It’s pattern recognition, it’s oversold as hell

not close to AI, but it sounds cool. AI Art is another matter in practicality, since it can avoid IP, and can be practical in applications of advertising and what not.

The idea it can take away programmers is absolutely laughable. There are already programs, building types that exist to try to help developers and they don’t really catch on. I can give you a million lines of code, how can you verify if it is bug free, what do you do with the code, how is it structured? How is it implemented? What is the design pattern, is it the correct language? The data for the code, Only a developer would know this.

for now. ai learns at an unprecedented rate though. evolves much quicker.

 

[dirtypablo]

It’s a Higher Life form

Wut. AI isn't alive, much less a higher life form.