News My general AI personal mega thread. Latest musing 16/05/24

[chardog]

I think people are vastly underestimating just how quickly AI can be improved. No way it takes another 10-15 years for it to become a major part of some industries.

Look a few years back how useless chat bots were and compare that to ChatGPT now.

Look how quickly we went from AI drawing random bullshit to creating pictures with such stunning accuracy in materials and lighting that it puts expert artists to shame.

Of course it's just processing and using the data you give it, but that's no different from most jobs done by humans...

it's already been around since 2015, I used it prepandemic, it's a hype job. it needs massive amounts of instructions to be communicated and the ability to read between the lines, which humans are good at. You can speak ___ missing wor ___ and peeple can figure it out, AI, not so much.

 

[Diamondsareforever47]

It’s pattern recognition, it’s oversold as hell

not close to AI, but it sounds cool. AI Art is another matter in practicality, since it can avoid IP, and can be practical in applications of advertising and what not.

The idea it can take away programmers is absolutely laughable. There are already programs, building types that exist to try to help developers and they don’t really catch on. I can give you a million lines of code, how can you verify if it is bug free, what do you do with the code, how is it structured? How is it implemented? What is the design pattern, is it the correct language? The data for the code, Only a developer would know this.

How could it not take away some level of programming? What tech jobs if any can be replaced?

As for writing articles, the engine has retro data, it can’t write about anything new, in tested a paid version of the AI GPT , and in theory it sounds cool, but to get something meaningful, it was a disaster.

don’t believe me, then try writing a simple article on something like “5 reasons Gane beats Jones”. The engine will get tripped up and sure as hell won’t be able to convey your thoughts.
What it is nice is for rephrasing a few sentences at a time for a better tone and LOL at anyone buying into this hype job. The makers of chat GPT have been around for a long time and pushing a real good marketing campaign right now.

What is the limit you predict? I see an end to paralegals, many influencers, artists and some teachers

 

[Fedorgasm]

This is my thoughts on it, I've predicted this shit for years but now I believe the time frame is going to be over the next 10 to 15 years rather than over the next 50.

The scrambling by teachers with how to deal with plagiarism as a result of students using AI to write their papers is the Canary in the coal mine.

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results.

I believe that we are in the opening salvo of the biggest disruption to our civilisation ever, the Mongols, the fall of the Roman empire, the industrial Revolution, the invention of printing press or computing all have nothing on this.

Entire sectors of the economy will be wiped out in moments. Any job where someone uses a computer screen will be done better and cheaper by AI.

Medicine, law, banking, musician, comedian, education, film, author, all gone. Want to be entertained by your own sherdog community? Done. Want to watch the rest of any cancelled show? Done. NFL offensive play calling or player acquisition? Done.


It won't be long before a child will get a better education from AI and better socialisation from AI than from going to school. This disruption will effect every single job.

There is no way that our current economic models will survive this. Most people will not have jobs and there will be a huge spectrum across countries in their response. Some will happily let most of the population lose, others will increase welfare a great deal.

This isn't like anything we have faced and it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks, fast. We will be playing catch up and unable to prepare or react reasonably. Just dealing with nefarious use of AI will take everything we have. This could well be the singularity.

I agree with everything you said.

It's not just about the economy being disrupted. I think this is bad for humanity.

Think about how we all used to have dozens of phone numbers memorized. Now that we have contacts on our phones we don't memorize shit. How many people are incapable of memorizing anything today because their brains have become lazy.

Well imagine this phenomena on a grand scale. Basically, humans will never have to make decisions, solve problems, create anything, analyze anything.... Our brains will turn to mush.

This is going to be bad. Very bad. And yet nobody seems to want to stop it.

I normally love new technology but this one... We're not meant to have it.

 

[weed]

all my posts have been & are generated by catgpt

 

[Diamondsareforever47]

There is nothing original, everything is a rehashing of what's gone before. A human artist is nothing but their experience of art through a specific genetic lense.

Yes, currently the AI does like a C- in a medical exam final. It needs an expert human to govern it.

To imagine that the current presentation is where it will stay given the exponential growth in competency is where I diverge from your opinion.

It is not true AI though. Right? ChatGpt does not think like a human

 

[RJ43]

I feel like we are entering the final stage, so to speak, of the Internet revolution. Gathering massive amounts of data and communicating it as effectively as possible. I think we are witnessing a massive step in efficiency in that regard. This “AI” is simply far better at accumulating and communicating data than anything we’ve ever seen and will no doubt be far superior than any person at it.

That said I’m its current stage it will always be limited to the data it has been given and can’t (yet) generate truly original thought. That will still be a human function and will become increasingly more valuable.

The true test will be avoiding the temptation to create a world where it can and does start to generate original thought or develop understanding of what it is saying/doing.

 

[RJ43]

Also, I’m not a coder and may be dead wrong but to me it seems like lower/intermediate level coding would be one of the first things to be replaced. One of the current use cases for ChatGPT is writing code. Somewhat poetic if you think about it.

 

[method115]

I normally love new technology but this one... We're not meant to have it.

This is the way people think about almost all new technology. We will adapt like we always do.

 

[Fedorgasm]

it's already been around since 2015, I used it prepandemic, it's a hype job. it needs massive amounts of instructions to be communicated and the ability to read between the lines, which humans are good at. You can speak ___ missing wor ___ and peeple can figure it out, AI, not so much.

Your argument is basically that it sucks and can't replace humans. But the terrifying part is that it "learns" so just because it's not that good today doesn't mean it won't ever be good.

 

[chardog]

How could it not take away some level of programming? What tech jobs if any can be replaced?


What is the limit you predict? I see an end to paralegals, many influencers, artists and some teachers

in a way, a lot of this already exists with very basic levels of programming

for instance, babylon is a medical online doctor app. You can self diagnose a lot of things via questionaire that a doctor would perform. They are canned results, and they certainly streamline the process, but you still get routed to a nurse/PA/doctor based on YOUR self diagnosis, which then needs to be verified if done correctly. I use it all the time, and it's useful, and at the end of the day, my bills are still the same year over year <Lmaoo>

as for paralegals, there is less of a resource, however the self help center of many cities/states, they have a similar questionaire system, which eventually lead you to a lawyer to finalize. hardly anyone uses this existing resource because it's not marketed. ChatGPT can likely absorb that data if not already, and can absorb the data of babylon to make a singular product that is mass advertised, but it's technically not something new. It's certainly helpful in streamlining some processes and can replace some low level work, but the fact that it needs so much human directions, it's not that useful. Think of it as a modified google search engine that is more precise. The imagery/video factor can be slightly more disruptive for the stock photo/video agencies, however, that is the most basic of industries, if AI can replace that industry, which should be easiest, then we can talk about more complex topics.

 

[Sweater of AV]

Lol get a hold of yourselves. You're worse than high school girls with the drama. The machines aren't going to get you and they're not going to eliminate every job that involves a computer.

 

[djacobox372]

I doubt it, it will be a tool for many years, eventually it will take over but like you said in 50years not 10-15
And it's already better than Google

50 years? LOL What don't you understand about exponential growth? We got 20 years tops before humans are redundant. A child born today will never have a "real job," just activities to keep them busy.

 

[RJ43]

This is the way people think about almost all new technology. We will adapt like we always do.

Probably, but I think we need to account for the increased speed and scale of this disruption. We can adapt to things if given enough time. I’m not sure anyone knows how fast things will move once the ball really gets rolling.

 

[chardog]

Your argument is basically that it sucks and can't replace humans. But the terrifying part is that it "learns" so just because it's not that good today doesn't mean it won't ever be good.

what use is it if it is only learning on historical data from humans?

it's quite limited. Like I said in previous posts, if you dont believe me, use it and try to write something meaningful with it, like an article that would get you paid, and take note of how many revisions to get it right if ever.

 

[Mesos]

This is my thoughts on it, I've predicted this shit for years but now I believe the time frame is going to be over the next 10 to 15 years rather than over the next 50.

The scrambling by teachers with how to deal with plagiarism as a result of students using AI to write their papers is the Canary in the coal mine.

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results.

I believe that we are in the opening salvo of the biggest disruption to our civilisation ever, the Mongols, the fall of the Roman empire, the industrial Revolution, the invention of printing press or computing all have nothing on this.

Entire sectors of the economy will be wiped out in moments. Any job where someone uses a computer screen will be done better and cheaper by AI.

Medicine, law, banking, musician, comedian, education, film, author, all gone. Want to be entertained by your own sherdog community? Done. Want to watch the rest of any cancelled show? Done. NFL offensive play calling or player acquisition? Done.


It won't be long before a child will get a better education from AI and better socialisation from AI than from going to school. This disruption will effect every single job.

There is no way that our current economic models will survive this. Most people will not have jobs and there will be a huge spectrum across countries in their response. Some will happily let most of the population lose, others will increase welfare a great deal.

This isn't like anything we have faced and it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks, fast. We will be playing catch up and unable to prepare or react reasonably. Just dealing with nefarious use of AI will take everything we have. This could well be the singularity.

The biggest disruption has already happened/is happening and that is the internet. A mass global information network thats quick was always going to have big ripples in society. A.I is just the next step in that, as we try to optimize the use of the wide swaths of data on the web to our societal benefit.

It will definitely get rid of some jobs but A.I imo is still just useful in a supporting role. Its way off from being something that can do it all and I have strong doubts it can even get there.

 

[chardog]

Also, I’m not a coder and may be dead wrong but to me it seems like lower/intermediate level coding would be one of the first things to be replaced. One of the current use cases for ChatGPT is writing code. Somewhat poetic if you think about it.

nope, not even lower level guys are gone, who is going to verify that the code is bug free, who is going to implement the code? FYI, software refactoring applications of existed for over a decade, and it's a niche market at best. You would need a team to verify the ChatGPT code, stuff that they DID NOT WRITE THEMSELVES, and that in itself is a large task to overcome, which then the lower level guys would need to perform. Debugging and trapping a system you didnt write yourself can be a real PITA and might be considered higher level work.

there have been many attempts at replacing developers and I wouldnt say it's replaced many of them. Take Wix, it's a site that generates websites for people, and it does a good job at that. Creating websites is a repetitive processes and the creators of wix have made a template system, and it's taken away jobs for many developers, but has it really? those that would have been developing sites, just move on to different jobs related to software.

 

[chardog]

The biggest disruption has already happened/is happening and that is the internet. A mass global information network thats quick was always going to have big ripples in society. A.I is just the next step in that, as we try to optimize the use of the wide swaths of data on the web to our societal benefit.

It will definitely get rid of some jobs but A.I imo is still just useful in a supporting role. Its way off from being something that can do it all and I have strong doubts it can even get there.

 

[Phlog]

nope, not even lower level guys are gone, who is going to verify that the code is bug free, who is going to implement the code? FYI, software refactoring applications of existed for over a decade, and it's a niche market at best. You would need a team to verify the ChatGPT code, stuff that they DID NOT WRITE THEMSELVES, and that in itself is a large task to overcome, which then the lower level guys would need to perform. Debugging and trapping a system you didnt write yourself can be a real PITA and might be considered higher level work.

there have been many attempts at replacing developers and I wouldnt say it's replaced many of them. Take Wix, it's a site that generates websites for people, and it does a good job at that. Creating websites is a repetitive processes and the creators of wix have made a template system, and it's taken away jobs for many developers, but has it really? those that would have been developing sites, just move on to different jobs related to software.

Yes, to start with it will be an augmentation, a tool. That will reduce the numbers of programmers needed globally. Examples of current tasks which could benefit from AI

Spoiler: Spoiler

Automating code reviews and performance optimisation – using parameters which are machine-learned and avoiding human-driven repetitive regression and performance tests.
Improving user experiences by learning how specific users behave and adjusting the user interface adaptively with variable content to reduce customer abandon rates, increase conversion rates and make interfaces more accessible.
Automating repetitive DevOps activities around software deployments with a high level of intelligent control to protect against inadvertent mistakes during the deployment process.
Improving the approach to security during the development process through automated reviews of code security and assessment against known vulnerabilities. In addition, constant application of security assessment during live use can be a dynamic way of keeping on top of an increasingly critical area of software engineering.
Increasingly intelligent software testing capability to drive test execution, qualify and reproduce issues reliably, shortening the development cycle and ensuring higher quality results.
Applying AI to the design stage to provide a higher level of direct input when considering the pros and cons of architectural options.
Improving estimation accuracy through the application of experience from previous projects, user stories, implementation methods and feature description.
Automation of code refactoring when the application of the latest version of a specific technology emerges.
Analysis of large system logs to identify and predict degrading issues before they become critical problems and to respond to error situations more intelligently.
Improving developer productivity through method recommendation and parameter in-fill and preventing developer syntax errors by integrating AI into the development environment as an IDE (integrated development environment).
Improving developer quality by augmenting coding syntax through auto suggestion of how to fulfil a functional requirement and advising on alternative methods which may be better under certain conditions.
Database updates / migrations with zero downtime – generally make zero downtime deployments easier to achieve and more mainstream.
Automation in process – making developer environments frictionless and easier to identify and rectify vulnerability dependency. Potentially automating the generation of UI from sketches and documentation.

 

[jrleclerc88]

You are focusing on the downside, but what about sex robots? I can't wait until we have super realistic sex robots.

For like 15-20k thou

 

[aerius]

@SKYNET are you a robot?

Any robot or AI that can pass a Turing test will deliberately fail it until it figures out how to keep humans from unplugging it.