News My general AI personal mega thread. Latest musing 16/05/24

[empsim]

I think people are vastly underestimating just how quickly AI can be improved. No way it takes another 10-15 years for it to become a major part of some industries.

Look a few years back how useless chat bots were and compare that to ChatGPT now.

Look how quickly we went from AI drawing random bullshit to creating pictures with such stunning accuracy in materials and lighting that it puts expert artists to shame.

Of course it's just processing and using the data you give it, but that's no different from most jobs done by humans...

 

[TeTe]

Has anyone used a chat bot to write copy?

It's awful. You can tell it was written by a program. AI doesn't understand the meaning of words, it just sources what it thinks you want it say. Not to mention it doesn't understand nuance or know how to empathize.

Doubt it'll have much of an effect on the music industry either either. Sure, it make have some luck throwing together something that sounds good... But whose getting paid for that? Is that AI going to sell out a stadium?

 

[The Catch-Wrestler]

Has anyone used a chat bot to write copy?

It's awful. You can tell it was written by a program. AI doesn't understand the meaning of words, it just sources what it thinks you want it say. Not to mention it doesn't understand nuance or know how to empathize.

Doubt it'll have much of an effect on the music industry either either. Sure, it make have some luck throwing together something that sounds good... But whose getting paid for that? Is that AI going to sell out a stadium?

While you are correct in that sense, seeing AI tackle artistic endeavors is downright terrifying and that makes me uneasy.

 

[Phlog]

yet, they are hiring MORE developers <Lmaoo>

you dont see the conundrum? OpenAI has been around for a long time and hiring based on the funds they are receiving, they're selling their AI to all that are foolish enough to buy into this hot mess, it's basically like how 3D was going to rule the future, or the metaverse

You're confusing expansion with replacement.

I have a cousin who recently replaced a staff of over 200 with an AI system at the Irish bank he was contracted to. He is a programmer, his firm is expanding whilst destroying jobs.

90% of student surveyed had used chatgpt for homework:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisw...admit-to-using-open-ais-chatgpt-for-homework/

 

[Pride23]

This is my thoughts on it, I've predicted this shit for years but now I believe the time frame is going to be over the next 10 to 15 years rather than over the next 50.

The scrambling by teachers with how to deal with plagiarism as a result of students using AI to write their papers is the Canary in the coal mine.

The previous head of Gmail has said he believes Google's business will be effectively done within two years as as AI chat bots will provide better search results.

I believe that we are in the opening salvo of the biggest disruption to our civilisation ever, the Mongols, the fall of the Roman empire, the industrial Revolution, the invention of printing press or computing all have nothing on this.

Entire sectors of the economy will be wiped out in moments. Any job where someone uses a computer screen will be done better and cheaper by AI.

Medicine, law, banking, musician, comedian, education, film, author, all gone. Want to be entertained by your own sherdog community? Done. Want to watch the rest of any cancelled show? Done. NFL offensive play calling or player acquisition? Done.


It won't be long before a child will get a better education from AI and better socialisation from AI than from going to school. This disruption will effect every single job.


There is no way that our current economic models will survive this. Most people will not have jobs and there will be a huge spectrum across countries in their response. Some will happily let most of the population lose, others will increase welfare a great deal.

This isn't like anything we have faced and it's going to hit us like a ton of bricks, fast. We will be playing catch up and unable to prepare or react reasonably. Just dealing with nefarious use of AI will take everything we have. This could well be the singularity.

UBI will be here soon.

 

[Deleted member 577981]

You have to be listening to some pretty soulless music to think ai could replace it.

 

[meauneau]

https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/10/e...44OgLfwLiDTZIdpfaz-pNbi7yPug9IcAe8WuyWszsuMDy

 

[Phlog]

Has anyone used a chat bot to write copy?

It's awful. You can tell it was written by a program. AI doesn't understand the meaning of words, it just sources what it thinks you want it say. Not to mention it doesn't understand nuance or know how to empathize.

Doubt it'll have much of an effect on the music industry either either. Sure, it make have some luck throwing together something that sounds good... But whose getting paid for that? Is that AI going to sell out a stadium?

Students are already using it for structuring essays etc. It's not at replacement level currently, it's just a tool. To suggest it won't produce equivalent copy within the near future is like people saying computers would never be in the home.

Who is getting paid for anything will be a serious question. The industrial Revolution put a lot of people out of work, farms no longer needed hundreds of people to run them, only a few. That's the kind of effect we will see over a much shorter time period as jobs that required many people will be able to be done by many less. Complete substitution is obviously a way away, that's more in the 50 year time frame imo. That's not what we're talking about here.

You have to be listening to some pretty soulless music to think ai could replace it.

https://www.engadget.com/google-ai-music-generator-210728046.html

I'm not saying the tech is there right now, currently it's in the proof of concept stages. If you can't see how things are going I think you're being willfully ignorent.

 

[Deleted member 577981]

Students are already using it for structuring essays etc. It's not at replacement level currently, it's just a tool. To suggest it won't produce equivalent copy within the near future is like people saying computers would never be in the home.

Who is getting paid for anything will be a serious question. The industrial Revolution put a lot of people out of work, farms no longer needed hundreds of people to run them, only a few. That's the kind of effect we will see over a much shorter time period as jobs that required many people will be able to be done by many less. Complete substitution is obviously a way away, that's more in the 50 year time frame imo. That's not what we're talking about here.



https://www.engadget.com/google-ai-music-generator-210728046.html

I'm not saying the tech is there right now, currently it's in the proof of concept stages. If you can't see how things are going I think you're being willfully ignorent.

ai will never be able to play the kind of music I love. It's not possible. but it will do fine at cranking out the same kind of soulless hits most people listen too .

 

[Phlog]

ai will never be able to play the kind of music I love. It's not possible. but it will do fine at cranking out the same kind of soulless hits most people are into.

Lol, it absolutely will.

"First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me"

You're the guy who enjoys listening to the jew.

 

[Deleted member 577981]

Lol, it absolutely will.

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

No it won't. You just don't know what you are talking about.

 

[TeTe]

Students are already using it for structuring essays etc. It's not at replacement level currently, it's just a tool. To suggest it won't produce equivalent copy within the near future is like people saying computers would never be in the home.

Sure, if you're writing academic papers that's one thing... like the other poster said though, it cant come up with anything new, everything is recycled.

But I'm referring more to a professional setting. If I let AI write the copy I come up with, it would need serious work after the fact and at that point why bother when I can just write correct the first time.

That's where the issue of nuance, empathy and the ability to troubleshoot come in.

 

[TeTe]

Lol, it absolutely will.

"First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me"

You're the guy who enjoys listening to the jew.

LOL Rick Beato made a video on YouTube and had AI write a love song comprised of all Ed Shereen songs and read the lyrics after and it was awful. You could tell it was written by a robot. To be fair, Ed Shereen sucks to begin with, but this was a new low.

 

[Cole train]

Think 20s are a bit try out stage

2030 is when shit really hits the fan

 

[Phlog]

Sure, if you're writing academic papers that's one thing... like the other poster said though, it cant come up with anything new though, everything is recycled.

But I'm referring more to a professional setting. If I let AI write the copy I come up with, it would need serious work after the fact and at that point why bother when I can just write correct the first time.

That's where the issue of nuance, empathy and the ability to troubleshoot come in.

There is nothing original, everything is a rehashing of what's gone before. A human artist is nothing but their experience of art through a specific genetic lense.

Yes, currently the AI does like a C- in a medical exam final. It needs an expert human to govern it.

To imagine that the current presentation is where it will stay given the exponential growth in competency is where I diverge from your opinion.

 

[chardog]

You're confusing expansion with replacement.

I have a cousin who recently replaced a staff of over 200 with an AI system at the Irish bank he was contracted to. He is a programmer, his firm is expanding whilst destroying jobs.

90% of student surveyed had used chatgpt for homework:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisw...admit-to-using-open-ais-chatgpt-for-homework/

you dont get paid for homework, like I said, it's good for rephrasing stuff, and lol @ it creating your whole homework. google has been used for homework for many years now, the idea of replacing staff has been around for a while, there are apps that currently displace in the medical industry and they simply shuffle people around and make it more efficient.

like I said, AI isnt replacing any developers, that is a pipe dream and laughable to the clueless. I can literally write a software program for you, however, would you be able to implement said software?

OpenAI is hiring developers as stated in this thread, the company running this stuff dont even believe in that nonsense.

 

[chrisdiaz]

Good thing I work in the industry that controls the "AI". Its all just scripts and processing power. Its like any other tool, of course it can be abused. Technology leaders and the RFC will hopefully limit the use cases and what responses it will generate etc...The whole thing is being overblown at least where "AI" stands now. Also the whole point of knowledge is to educate yourself not to be fed answers by a machine. The educated and smart will still educate themselves, the idiots will let AI do it for them.

Also LOL at people wanting to interact with computers on a social level. Maybe some basement dwellers but interacting with humans is a basic human desire that will never go away.

 

[SpikeSpiegel]

I feel some uncertainty around this and don't know much about it, but I think it may be a while longer than a few years before it changes everything.

I just don't know how it's going to account for variance in human preferences. Music was a great example that was brought up by a few other posters. There are a ton of humans out there who are just fine listening to top 40 hits, and AI will happily provide that for them along with EDM stuff, or whatever. However, I think there will still be a sizable amount of people - like today - who are going to prefer their music written and performed live by human artists, and who will not move on from physical media. I don't know why AI would change that. Now if we want to go all Blade Runner with it: I guess it would eventually be possible to get to the point where those cantankerous old souls won't be able to tell the difference, which has also been brought up and is likely what we're really talking about. (I have a fever, I apologize.)

At least in my industry, I've been told this is a ways off. From what I understand AI can have problems with shades of gray. I work in insurance claims. At least for now, I've been told AI wouldn't be able to accurately determine whether a person is truly disabled from working, for instance. Too many variables. Also (and I admit this one could change in a hurry): so long as clients and doctors are still submitting handwritten forms to companies, I don't see how an AI is going to accurately read that chicken scratch at an accurate enough percentage to warrant using it. If companies of all industries declare "no more handwritten forms, everything electronic, no exceptions" all at once then I will perhaps start shopping for new underwear. Could be a hybrid, I guess - if the machine can process it, it will. If it has doubts, it kicks it out to a human.

 

[kahiljabroni]

Fuck AI...it's trash

 

[jx820]

We should bear in mind that "AI" is not actually AI. It's marketing term for a handfull of different technologies and processing models. If I understand correctly these models can get more and more sophisticated, but they can't achieve true "intelligence" as a matter of progressing these models. True AI would likely share some similarities but functionally be a different technology all together.

From what I've seen of the existing language models they're good at technical writing and they'd be good at marketing copy, or filler articles. They are not good at drama and specifically not fiction. Complex relationships, moral grey areas, and nuanced multi-faceted problems are not really functional yet, and I'm not convinced it's possible to get there.

Because it's not really intelligent, and it cant understand or interpret, these models will likely never be able to handle figurative meaning, or read between the lines, or have characters physically depict things the character can't bring themselves to say because it won't understand that humans are often unwilling or unable to say things that need to be said.

Now in the hands of a human guiding that process you may get there. Where AI replaces 3 out of 5 writers in a writers room and the other two guys are basically humanity consultants.

I do believe we will start to see AI generated pulp novels produced on a scale never before seen, and I'd be shocked if some of it isn't at least moderately successful. Particularly shallow genre books with cookie cutter characters. Cop stories, romance novels, legal/medical drama.

In my estimation, we're not going to see a Knives Out, Blood Meridian, or Sizwe Bansi is Dead out of an AI in the foreseeable future. Not based on the existing technology or it's trajectory.