Money to be made on Tecia to beat Van Burren this weekend?

[BigSteve]

I got Torres by DEC for half a unit. Agree with you. Buren can be taken down and shes fighting the best opponent she has faced so far by miles. If you watch one of her loses Montenegro she got out hustled against the cage. Yes she was much younger but she was doing the same stuff against Souza. For a wrestler she keeps dropping down for subs, which is what cost her against Montenegro.

Either way if it goes to a close split, which I think it will, it proves the value was on Torres.

 

[xhaydenx]

I got Torres by DEC for half a unit. Agree with you. Buren can be taken down and shes fighting the best opponent she has faced so far by miles. If you watch one of her loses Montenegro she got out hustled against the cage. Yes she was much younger but she was doing the same stuff against Souza. For a wrestler she keeps dropping down for subs, which is what cost her against Montenegro.

Either way if it goes to a close split, which I think it will, it proves the value was on Torres.

yeah, from the research I'm doing, that's pretty much how I'm seeing it.

There's a massive difference between fighting Zhang, Joanna and Andrade, and even Marina, to fighting Souza.

Tecia likes to hustle against the cage herself. She loves that clinch work. She doesn't really do much with it, but it can win rounds. And with Brianna, I mean, she wasn't in any way manhandling Souza. She had 3 takedowns in that fight to Souza's 2. She won that fight more with her striking, and Souza looked so slow and sloppy.

 

[TheNinja]

And seriously, bro, always bet on WMMA. It's the easiest of the lot. The girls are either very one-dimensional so you can see finishes being likely (girls like Andrade, Claudia, etc), or they don't have enough power to finish one another. I used to bet just to reach the 2nd round, and I've lost less than 5 of those out of dozens and dozens.

I watch every fight, including the girls, and I watch Invicta so I don't get blind-sided by any of them. WMMA is great for betting if you know the fighters inside out.

I won't quote your whole post but this is a very good point. If you want to win money you don't bet on the NFL, especially the superbowl. You don't bet on the teams like Alabama in NCAA. Where you can make your money is on the smaller schools or some random Tuesday night NCAA game taking place between 2 smaller schools in the Midwest.

All that to say is the big fights you have no chance and having an advantage over the bookies. They've gone over every possible angle. But even Vegas has limited resources so they can't cover every single event with a microscope. So you can get an edge in certain areas like WMMA.

And of course with betting they are just trying to get the public to bet on both sides so you may have knowledge that the public might not be paying attention to.

 

[Kumason]

Putting together some bets for this weekend, and I'm looking at Tecia vs Van Burren this weekend.

Tecia is a pretty decent underdog, but I'm not seeing why in this one.

Here's my thinking:

Burren is on a bit of streak. Her last few wins were, a nobody, Moyle (who is ok), and then she beat three girls in one night in an Invicta tourny, including Juliana Lima and Curran. The thing is, Lima is getting on and is susceptible to LNP, and Curran is not good at all, really. If I remember rightly, Burren made the most of this + the fact that she has way better wrestling than them. This worked because the fights were 1 rounders up until the final. It was easy for her to secure the single round with the wrestling.

After all this, she beat Souza, who I thought looked great back in Invicta, but has looked pretty average since. Burren beat her well, but the fight was contested at whatever pace Burren wanted, and Souza isn't very physical.

Now onto Tecia:

I think she's the big underdog mainly because she's lost her last 4. That's not good, obviously, but look at who she's been losing to. She got beat by Andrade (when she was on her own streak), Joanna, Zhang, and finally Marina Rodriguez (up and comer with serious champ potential).

^ She was losing to some of the best, if not the very best fighters in the division. What's more, she didn't get embarrassed in any of those fights. She was competitive in all of those fights and took them to a decision.

Now, onto actual Tecia vs Burren:

Tecia is 30, Burren is 26. So, Burren has the youth, but 30 isn't really that old for Tecia. Tecia is 5"1, so tiny, but Burren is 4"11, so even smaller. Burren isn't going to have any sort of size advantage at all. Watching Burren against Souza, and I think Tecia is going to be faster, which will be good for her in-out striking style. I also think she'll maybe even have some strength and wrestling advantages. Burren got taken down easily by Souza at one point, and a scramble ended with her in a bad spot at the end of the first round. Also, I think Tecia is going to be a ton harder to take down than anyone Burren has fought yet. Decent cardio on both sides, but I see Brianna slow just a little, while Tecia doesn't slow at all in 5 rounds.

I can see how the bookies are looking at Burren's and Tecia's recent records, and obviously it looks bad for Tecia, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as I laid out above.

So, Tecia should take this one, right?

Thoughts?

EDITED TO ADD:

Just re-watching Tecia vs Marina, which was Tecia's last fight. She still looks fast, fit and strong. She really struggled with Marina's huge height and reach advantage, not to mention that Marina is awesome on the feet.

So I refreshed on footage. I have watched most of their careers but like I said I always refresh thinking of the match up at hand. One thing off the bat is if I was betting big on this I would for sure go back further on Van Buren cause I think stylistically Souza was a nice match up for her stylistically so it's hard to put real stock in that performance but it was enough for me to feel like the odds are pretty on as opposed to my intuition last week telling me they are real nice odds on Tecia.

I think it could be a close fight especially if VB doesn't use her energy better or made good gains in the Str. an Cond. but it's mostly about her explosive style and non stop output. I feel like if VB looks like last fight there's a decent - good chance she loses the 3rd which means if that happened obviously Tecia would just need one of the first two rounds. I don't really see that happening though.

Obviously they are both striking based with wildly different styles if you're getting technical. Tecia on her bicycle, pawing a ton till she explodes in with some punches and rinse and repeat. She doesn't sit down on much of anything and her weight distribution always seems to be moving toward the next angle which of course means she's not going to generate much power. She hasn't changed much in years, especially her style, she's still a meat and potatoes striker, same combo's, same entries, same everything mostly which in this day and age is generally very easy to gameplan for (not that it always works like some cheat code lol).

VB has a much different style as in she comes forward, with combos usually and a decent jab, her entries are generally unpredictable mixing it up to the body very well, and is very good at backing girls into the cage while throwing this not often seen over the top elbow like a Tomahawk that goes over girls guards. She also covers distance very well for someone so short, usually ends with a kick and unlike some very short fighters she doesn't usually come up ridiculously short with that last kick which, as a fan can get so repetitively annoying to watch lol. She covers that extra distance well on that last strike too which is pretty key to her arsenal I think.

I think it's also important who's judging, do they like the flashy pitter patter move a lot make you look bad style with decent consistent output or the up in your grill bully you aggressive very heavy output style? VB does well at explode then take a break holding you against the cage (for an absolute lack of words, I know it's not a break) so the judges see her be the aggressor and then control the cage work which I think she will. Despite Tecia crazy muscled body I don't think she has quite the strength, weight distribution and ability to arm fight like VB.

Overall VB is also the much more diverse striker, she mixes so well to the body, her kicks cover everywhere and she comes in from all different angles where as Tecia mostly just explodes in and fires off a 1212 or something simple.

It probably sounds like i'm thinking VB has this in the bag, it's probably cause I don't feel like writing out a long thing (trust me this is short) about the fight and basically just say the main things. I think if Tecia can pull off one of the first two rounds she could very well take the 3rd too if like I said VB hasn't made some adjustments but I think VB does more damage in the 1st two and controls Tecia against the cage, not in the 1st so much with Tecia's footwork but every fight it seems like after the 1st Tecia either concedes or initiates the cage work and that could very well be the nail in the coffin especially if she does it in the 3rd a lot. I just don't feel like this is a good bet on either side. I also feel like Tecia hasn't improved as far as diversifying her striking and with little improvements fight to fight I have to put stock into VB being even better this fight cause she does improve a lot every fight so that puts even a little more into the spread for me.

It's hard to take VB at -225, in fact there's no way I would cause I like betting on slight dogs or dogs i'm confident in and I rarely bet on favorites but Tecia's a veteran and that 3rd round is what adds to it. Not that you're betting on VB i'm just saying for others that might read.

I liked Tecia at + oh wow she went even higher +185 now but I would only like it as a smaller bet and I don't think you should go heavy on it. It looks like a great bet on paper but I think you can find some better stuff on this card like a small parlay or something. I haven't studied this one but usually theres something worthwhile and sometimes there's not at all and that's when you should go small if anything. I'm wrong at picks all the time, I have the highest pick % on Tapology with the 30,000 pick minimum and I still feel like I suck. But good luck to you!

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

All the online books and all the state run tab's have MMA features on sports..
They all open h2h lines and exotic lines.
Where on earth do you gamble, with the bartender down at the local?

Hahaha good point mate, I just don't bet much so I have no idea.

 

[davidlemonparty]

Hahaha good point mate, I just don't bet much so I have no idea.

It can be a real hassle to sign up. if you want, just paypal me the $$$ and I'll put the bet on for you

 

[Tirimasuperman]

It can be a real hassle to sign up. if you want, just paypal me the $$$ and I'll put the bet on for you

I wonder if people actually fall for these

 

[Chael_Sonnen]

I wonder if people actually fall for these

What do you mean, fall? I've already sent him the money.

 

[davidlemonparty]

I wonder if people actually fall for these

What do you mean, fall? I've already sent him the money.

Thanks @Chael_Sonnen
@Tirimasuperman shame on you for not trusting your fellow brother.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Thanks @Chael_Sonnen
@Tirimasuperman shame on you for not trusting your fellow brother.

Yeah I remember the massive hassle it was to sign up for Neds, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Pinnacle, Bet365 and the like. Almost took me a whole 5 minutes total to sign up for all 5 of them

 

[davidlemonparty]

Yeah I remember the massive hassle it was to sign up for Neds, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Pinnacle, Bet365 and the like. Almost took me a whole 5 minutes total to sign up for all 5 of them

If they did a character check, you wouldn't have been able to get onto any of them.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

If they did a character check, you wouldn't have been able to get onto any of them.

That's true

And yet I have ‍

 

[2bet]

I like Tecia as a dog.
She is a tough cookie, she has the experience, finally no size disadvantage, and let's not forget she is a lesbian.

After 4 decisions losses in a row I am expecting her to release her lesbian fury and butcher Van Buren (who am I kidding, she is not finishing anybody, I am counting on a DEC win).

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Good writeup @xhaydenx
I like the pricetag on Tecia and her experience edge, the only thing I am worried is the ATT vs AKA angle. AKA are a lot better at gameplanning and implementing said gameplan in fights. ATT tend let their fighers wandering too much in the fight. My opinion.

Good analysis! This thread is better than 99% on sherdog.
Fun fact: Why not go save and put 7 million on the fight going over 1 1/2 half rounds.
If Tecia wins she has a 90% decision rate, if she loses, she has a 100% decision rate.
Whatever happens in this fight, it's a decision.

Harlekin, there is no over 1.5rd prop, only over 2.5 and it's juiced.

 

[ill800]

I like Tecia as a dog.
She is a tough cookie, she has the experience, finally no size disadvantage, and let's not forget she is a lesbian.

After 4 decisions losses in a row I am expecting her to release her lesbian fury and butcher Van Buren (who am I kidding, she is not finishing anybody, I am counting on a DEC win).

Tecia is the fem though, not the dom.

For the record, I don’t think there’s value on tecia right now at +185, since that’s where I cap her at.

 

[Kumason]

Betting on UFC prelims

Betting on UFC prelims WMMA fight

Betting on the underdog of said UFC prelims WMMA fight who’s on a 4 fight losing streak

So that’s a bold strategy, TS. Please let us know how it goes if you actually place a sizable bet, since I don’t think many people care enough to watch said fight and what actually is the outcome there.

That's where the odds are often off. Womens mma is statistically easier to pick if you know what you're doing because there is more of a skill gap and less fighters resulting in more fights that aren't even for a lack of a better word. You know what the easiest men's division is to pick statistically? HW, for the same reason. Of course fight by fight HW is known as the most unpredictable because of obvious reasons but overall % wise it's the easiest when you are looking at it as a whole. My source? Millions of picks at Tapology. 4 fight losing streak, which includes Zhang, Joanna, Andrade and a legit 12-0 contender....durrrrr.

 

[markys00]

yes, there is money to be made on this.

fight goes to decision..
or van buren by decision if ur feeling frisky.

 

[markys00]

No way. Tecia is awful and should have been cut a fight or two ago. Burres is on the up and up, trains at an elite gym and the size difference will he negligible. Can't see either fighter being finished so the over on 2.5 rounds would be a smart bet. Probably would add it to a 2 or 3 bet parlay.

this man knows what hes talking about..

i have a blaydes + roosevelt + vanburen/torres going to decision parlay at about -110 or so.

i see a lot of ppl confident in burgos as well, but im just gonna sit back and enjoy that one. burgos should be the favorite as he has the size and reach, but his one problem is how often he gets tagged.. just about every fight he gets hit hard. if that happens with emmet, i can see him going for the finish. im not sure thats a fight i want to risk my money on.

 

[ctelooming]

this man knows what hes talking about..

i have a blaydes + roosevelt + vanburen/torres going to decision parlay at about -110 or so.

i see a lot of ppl confident in burgos as well, but im just gonna sit back and enjoy that one. burgos should be the favorite as he has the size and reach, but his one problem is how often he gets tagged.. just about every fight he gets hit hard. if that happens with emmet, i can see him going for the finish. im not sure thats a fight i want to risk my money on.

I agree about Burgos and Emmett. I think there's a good chance either one of them gets finished. One thing to factor in for people betting on Emmett is that I can practically guarantee he's not the same guy after his near fatal orbital surgery. He looked good taking punches against MJ, but he was depleted at 145 and didn't have the pop he usually does. And like you said Burgos looks like the rightful favorite on paper, but he gets hit too much and that is not a good thing against a guy like Emmett.

I like your parlay. What do you think of the over 2.5 on Blaydes/Volkov? It's like at +105-110 odds and that seems like a steal IMO. Blaydes is the rightful favorite and should win, but I cant see Volkov being finished by him. He has shit TDD, but a good guard with his long ass legs and he doesnt take as much damage as most fighters on his back. Plus he's tough as nails and has only been finished twice (one kinda flukey) in almost 40 fights. Blaydes seems like the kind of fighter who has no problem winning a boring ass decision and wont go for unncessary risks if he doesn't have to.

 

[markys00]

I agree about Burgos and Emmett. I think there's a good chance either one of them gets finished. One thing to factor in for people betting on Emmett is that I can practically guarantee he's not the same guy after his near fatal orbital surgery. He looked good taking punches against MJ, but he was depleted at 145 and didn't have the pop he usually does. And like you said Burgos looks like the rightful favorite on paper, but he gets hit too much and that is not a good thing against a guy like Emmett.

I like your parlay. What do you think of the over 2.5 on Blaydes/Volkov? It's like at +105-110 odds and that seems like a steal IMO. Blaydes is the rightful favorite and should win, but I cant see Volkov being finished by him. He has shit TDD, but a good guard with his long ass legs and he doesnt take as much damage as most fighters on his back. Plus he's tough as nails and has only been finished twice (one kinda flukey) in almost 40 fights. Blaydes seems like the kind of fighter who has no problem winning a boring ass decision and wont go for unncessary risks if he doesn't have to.

man, i dont even like betting hws, and betting the over/under always seems like a big risk to me. blaydes was able to finish jds.. and many other great hws. seems like hes only getting better, while volkov is stagnating to me. i think those odds are in ur favor, but might be a sucker's bet..volkov SHOULD be able to hold him off till round 3, but we just dont know. also, small cage and refs have been quick to pull the trigger on tkos lately. i dont want to put u off the bet, i just wouldnt do it. too risky.