Money to be made on Tecia to beat Van Burren this weekend?

[RockyLockridge]

Nice insight ts, im working on my bets for this weekend i was gonna stay out of it because i dont know much about this buren girl

 

[TITS]

Seriously TS, never bet on WMMA. Didn't you have already bad luck with WMMA parlays in the past?

 

[Kumason]

I was looking at this last week thinking they were nice odds but didn't get around to refreshing on footage. You always have to watch a lot of footage. Even if you seen someone a million times, when you watch them while thinking about the other persons skill set you see a lot more important aspects of the particular match up. My initial thoughts were wow decent odds. It's always nice for betting when a good and solid fighter is on a big losing streak but due to high level competition but Van Buren has been pretty impressive. I have to refresh on that one for sure, plus I usually have a lot of ginger ale's during the fights.

 

[xhaydenx]

Souza is a very good win though. Turns out Tecia is +165 which sounds about right. Its a good underdog bet but it certainly isnt a great one Id rely on hitting. I still got Brianna winning a close fight.

I don't know. I don't really rate Souza as much as I used to. The best fighter she's faced is Hill, and she lost that one. Souza has looked just ok against Invicta comp, but in the UFC she's fought Frota, Chambers and Burren. Frota and Chambers I don't think much of.

 

[Law Dog]

What are the odds? And where do you bet personally? I'm in australia and UFC isn't very known in terms of betting.

I actually specialize as an international bookie, mate. I’ll give you excellent odds. Pm me and send me monies and I’ll give you excellent odds, mate.

 

[Spath]

Betting on UFC prelims

Betting on UFC prelims WMMA fight

Betting on the underdog of said UFC prelims WMMA fight who’s on a 4 fight losing streak

So that’s a bold strategy, TS. Please let us know how it goes if you actually place a sizable bet, since I don’t think many people care enough to watch said fight and what actually is the outcome there.

 

[Harlekin]

Good analysis! This thread is better than 99% on sherdog.
Fun fact: Why not go save and put 7 million on the fight going over 1 1/2 half rounds.
If Tecia wins she has a 90% decision rate, if she loses, she has a 100% decision rate.
Whatever happens in this fight, it's a decision.

 

[davidlemonparty]

What are the odds? And where do you bet personally? I'm in australia and UFC isn't very known in terms of betting.

All the online books and all the state run tab's have MMA features on sports..
They all open h2h lines and exotic lines.
Where on earth do you gamble, with the bartender down at the local?

 

[sonhow]

Tecia is so unfortunate with the matchmaking. Van Buren is so physical for the division - strong as an ox. I feel she can overwhelm Tecia with pure strength.

 

[xhaydenx]

No way. Tecia is awful and should have been cut a fight or two ago. Burres is on the up and up, trains at an elite gym and the size difference will he negligible. Can't see either fighter being finished so the over on 2.5 rounds would be a smart bet. Probably would add it to a 2 or 3 bet parlay.

Cut a fight or two ago? 1 fight ago she was fighting Marina, who is awesome and a dark horse in the division. 2 fights ago she was fighting Zhang, who won the belt in her next fight. Both of those losses were competitive.

Buren is at AKA. Tecia at ATT. They're both elite gyms. Being on the up and up doesn't mean that Buren will be able to hang with the top of the division, which Tecia has been doing.

You're right about the size difference being negligible. I went over that in my original post. That's not a bad thing at all for Tecia. Most of the time, she doesn't have the size advantage at all. Marina had like 5 inches on her. JJ was huge compared to her as well.

Yeah, the decision or to reach the 2nd round would be safe, but it pays fuck all, and I'm trying to win money over here.

Seriously TS, never bet on WMMA. Didn't you have already bad luck with WMMA parlays in the past?

Nope. I'm $500 into 25k or so after 6 months, and most of the first 15k was off WMMA. Don't know how I'd be if the Covid hadn't paused everything for those few months.

I had some bad luck on that card where Aldrich got robbed, and another where KGB got robbed because the judges were literally not watching lol.

And seriously, bro, always bet on WMMA. It's the easiest of the lot. The girls are either very one-dimensional so you can see finishes being likely (girls like Andrade, Claudia, etc), or they don't have enough power to finish one another. I used to bet just to reach the 2nd round, and I've lost less than 5 of those out of dozens and dozens.

I watch every fight, including the girls, and I watch Invicta so I don't get blind-sided by any of them. WMMA is great for betting if you know the fighters inside out.

I was looking at this last week thinking they were nice odds but didn't get around to refreshing on footage. You always have to watch a lot of footage. Even if you seen someone a million times, when you watch them while thinking about the other persons skill set you see a lot more important aspects of the particular match up. My initial thoughts were wow decent odds. It's always nice for betting when a good and solid fighter is on a big losing streak but due to high level competition but Van Buren has been pretty impressive. I have to refresh on that one for sure, plus I usually have a lot of ginger ale's during the fights.

I never watch any footage. I just go by memory. That cost me 10k on a 3 legger with Hooper last card, which was stupid, because I was comparing their records, and thinking that if Alex can go 5 rounds with Yair and has all these other wins, he stands a damn good chance against Hooper. I only remembered Hooper's finish against Teymur and nothing else. If I'd watched some tape I'd have known how crap his striking was and would have definitely put it down on Alex instead.

So, yeah, I'm watching tape from now on, starting with this card. I watched Tecia's last 4 fights + Van Buren's last one. They went how I remember. Tecia was strong enough to clinch up with a big girl like Joanna, who is strong in the clinch herself. She was outlanding Andrades until Andrades put the foot down and started brawling forward. She was competitive against Marina and Zhang. Meanwhile, Buren got the better of Souza, who looked slow and sluggish compared to the girls Tecia has been fighting. She struggled to get her down, and even got taken down twice herself by Souza, who isn't known for her takedowns or takedown defense, and isn't anywhere near as physical and fit as Tecia.

Good analysis! This thread is better than 99% on sherdog.
Fun fact: Why not go save and put 7 million on the fight going over 1 1/2 half rounds.
If Tecia wins she has a 90% decision rate, if she loses, she has a 100% decision rate.
Whatever happens in this fight, it's a decision.

I use to just stack heaps of legs to reach the 2nd round. I've only gotten a handful of those wrong, but you need to stack like 4-5 + pick at least another winner to get any decent odds worked up. It just isn't worth it in the end.

Also, I don't have 7 million dollars. haha.

It's definitely going to be a decision though, you're right. Reaching the 2nd round is almost all but certain.

Tecia is so unfortunate with the matchmaking. Van Buren is so physical for the division - strong as an ox. I feel she can overwhelm Tecia with pure strength.

I don't agree, having watched their last fights. Tecia was holding Joanna up against the cage fairly easily for a lot of round 1. She wasn't getting completely overwhelmed by Andrade or Zhang physically either. Meanwhile, Buren couldn't overhwlem Souza with pure strength, and Tecia is way stronger and more skilled than Souza. She's got way better cardio also.

 

[xhaydenx]

Betting on UFC prelims

Betting on UFC prelims WMMA fight

Betting on the underdog of said UFC prelims WMMA fight who’s on a 4 fight losing streak

So that’s a bold strategy, TS. Please let us know how it goes if you actually place a sizable bet, since I don’t think many people care enough to watch said fight and what actually is the outcome there.

I don't really get what the gifs are trying to convey, mate lol.

I love prelim fights to bet on. The higher up the rankings you go, the closer the fighters are skill wise. In the prelims, I'm always trying to cherry pick off bad match making upsets and fighters coming up. Shit like Roberts vs Brok Weaver and Roxy vs a girl who was getting lit up by ALdrich and got her blue belt in the fucking mail haha.

Tecia's 4 fight losing streak needs to be taken in context. If she was losing to girls ranked 11-15, it would be different. But she hasn't been. Literally 3 of her last 4 losses have come to the girls who have been in the last 2 title fights at SW.

I usually post my results in the betting section, but I'll probably update this thread after Sunday. Expect MJ crying if Tecia loses haha.

I'll probably start with 2k on Tecia and keep rolling it over to other fights from there on the day.

I definitely care about this fight lol. I don't mind WMMA at all. I like all MMA. Also, it makes me tax-free money so I don't have to work, so you better believe I care about said fight lol.

 

[Spath]

I don't really get what the gifs are trying to convey, mate lol.

They were just to demonstrate how impressed I was when I read about your plans.

I agree, usually the best money could be made in the prelims. Sometimes they got mismatches on the main card too, but more likely prelims.

WMMA can have good odds. Now that I think of this, Tecia has a better shot at winning than her odds make it look like. So probably +EV bet.

I like betting on underdogs, have made some nice payouts that way. Best of luck to you and lets hope the fights are good, too.

 

[Andreh]

My bet would be in Tecia too, your feeling is right. I am still thinking if I'm going to put money in her.

 

[xhaydenx]

They were just to demonstrate how impressed I was when I read about your plans.

I agree, usually the best money could be made in the prelims. Sometimes they got mismatches on the main card too, but more likely prelims.

WMMA can have good odds. Now that I think of this, Tecia has a better shot at winning than her odds make it look like. So probably +EV bet.

I like betting on underdogs, have made some nice payouts that way. Best of luck to you and lets hope the fights are good, too.

Ah, I get ya.

100% prelims are great for gambling. You just need to know the fighters. A lot of people skip them or whatever. I've only missed like 10 UFC fights in the last 10 years, and they were just early prelims that I missed for whatever reason. KNowing everyone, understanding the sport and the way fights are judged + comparing all their fights before a card works.

What's a +EV bet?

Best of luck to you as well if you're betting, mate.

 

[Spath]

Ah, I get ya.

100% prelims are great for gambling. You just need to know the fighters. A lot of people skip them or whatever. I've only missed like 10 UFC fights in the last 10 years, and they were just early prelims that I missed for whatever reason. KNowing everyone, understanding the sport and the way fights are judged + comparing all their fights before a card works.

What's a +EV bet?

Best of luck to you as well if you're betting, mate.

+EV is a term that’s used in betting, poker etc. It means positive expected value, so basically a bet you’d make every time if you had the chance (profit over time). Of course there are bad beats, sometimes shit happens. That one bad outcome doesn’t mean it was a bad bet, at all.

My last one was Rose (underdog) vs Andrade, where I had a fair amount on Rose. She was handling Andrade, taking her to school and then... the slam KO. Blah, I’d still take her at those odds every time.

 

[VolkHan]

Brianna is an explosive wrestler with very good double leg and slams.
My money is on BVB.
Tecia is good but seems broken

 

[xhaydenx]

Brianna is an explosive wrestler with very good double leg and slams.
My money is on BVB.
Tecia is good but seems broken

And yet Brianna struggled to out-wrestle Souza, and even got taken down herself.

How does Tecia seem broken? She's been having competitive fights with the very top girls in the division.Two fights ago she was fighting the current champ. Before that, the longest champ in the division, before that, the champ prior to Zhang.

Meanwhile, 2 fights ago Burren was fighting Curran, who went 1-6 in the UFC and has a losing record. Before that it was Moyle, who took Burren to a decision, went 1-2 in the UFC and now has 50\50 wins and losses.

 

[VolkHan]

And yet Brianna struggled to out-wrestle Souza, and even got taken down herself.

How does Tecia seem broken? She's been having competitive fights with the very top girls in the division.Two fights ago she was fighting the current champ. Before that, the longest champ in the division, before that, the champ prior to Zhang.

Meanwhile, 2 fights ago Burren was fighting Curran, who went 1-6 in the UFC and has a losing record. Before that it was Moyle, who took Burren to a decision, went 1-2 in the UFC and now has 50\50 wins and losses.

Motivations.
BVB is on the upside and improving continuously, and she’s hungry eyeing the ranked opponents, Tecia unfortunately is probably feeling that she’s not gonna go nowhere in the SW division, just gatekeeper status.
It can make a huge difference psychologically

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

It's leto1976 or whatever his username is, who watches WMMA exclusively and shows up at Invicta events chasing soccer moms around the parking lot looking for autographs.

I like the cut of your jib. (Out of likes for the day)

I mocked leto for being a fat, ugly incel with an irrelevant Youtube channel who doesn't even understand WMMA, at which point he blocked me and has been ranting about me behind his safe space ever since. This loser would also brag about scoring Invicta tickets like it was something remarkable.

I feel very sorry for my homegirl Brianna being subjected to the cottage cheese bodied autist. Hopefully, now that she is in the UFC, she has moved past talking with the letos of the world.

 

[Monster Meat]

Just throw the over 2.5 in a parlay