Media Merab Opens As MASSIVE Underdog vs Umar

[octagonation]

I agree.. 3 to 1 is bs.. I would say this fight is very close I would even say much closer then 2 to 1

 

[usernamee]

yeah that's crazy, this is a highly competitive fight

 

[fortheo]

I can see paths to victory for both guys.

 

[svmr_db]

Islam was -350 against Charles and that was closing. He opened -400

View attachment 1077320

He closed around -180 ish. The data just didn't disappear into the void, you can look up where any fight's odds were by the time it closed on fight day. It's not a mystery.

He was steeper odds for the rematch prior to it being called off yeah but not the first fight.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-281-2586

 

[Jinx_AA]

I’d like to see Merab win vs Umar … but I dot think he stands a chance.

I think umar completely dominates him and finishes him inside 3

 

[LoveMyMMA]

Still think merab pulls out.

Yup.

Don't expect him to show up on Jan 18th.

We'll get Umar vs. Yan instead.

 

[svmr_db]

 

[rjmbrd]

I can see paths to victory for both guys.

What do you see playing out best guess / instinct?

 

[Brigfa2]

They are disrespecting Georgia with these odds

 

[nonoob]

With those odds, they must not have seen Merab throw down dancing.

 

[FriskyRandy]

Yup.

Don't expect him to show up on Jan 18th.

We'll get Umar vs. Yan instead.

Merab certainly doesn't appear too excited about Jan 18th.

 

[Tweak896]

Islam was -350 against Charles and that was closing. He opened -400

View attachment 1077320

This reminds me of that fight, but people aren't as much fans of Merab as Olivera. At least Olivera finished the top LWs before Islam. There's always people who like to get the underdogs every main event.

 

[fedoriswar37]

Easy money on Merab then.

 

[TheTickG]

Might just be an ad & I'm taking Umar, but a 3:1 favorite is some crazy odds lol.

Is anyone taking Merab in the fight or do you agree with the odds?

I image Merab to be the kind of guy to bet on Umar.

 

[rjmbrd]

I think umar completely dominates him and finishes him inside 3

Umar couldn't get anywhere near putting Sandhagen away, and that was a stylistically favorable matchup for him. His fight before that, he couldn't put away Bekzat making his UFC debut, a guy coming in from a regional org.

In 6 UFC fights Umar has put away 3 guys, and they are all middling un-ranked fighters of no note. One of them is a prestigious 8-9 in the UFC.

Merab is on an 11 fight UFC win streak and he's fought 4 consecutive world champions in a row now (Aldo, Yan, Cedjuo, O'Malley) and made them all look like easy fights.

No doubt Umar has a very real chance of winning, but there is nothing in either mans history that suggests he puts Merab away in 3 rounds?

 

[VinceArch]

Umar couldn't get anywhere near putting Sandhagen away, and that was a stylistically favorable matchup for him. His fight before that, he couldn't put away Bekzat making his UFC debut, a guy coming in from a regional org.

In 6 UFC fights Umar has put away 3 guys, and they are all middling un-ranked fighters of no note. One of them is a prestigious 8-9 in the UFC.

Merab is on an 11 fight UFC win streak and he's fought 4 consecutive world champions in a row now (Aldo, Yan, Cedjuo, O'Malley) and made them all look like easy fights.

No doubt Umar has a very real chance of winning, but there is nothing in either mans history that suggests he puts Merab away in 3 rounds?

I believe Umar can put away Merab in 3 rounds before Merab could get it done.

 

[svmr_db]

Easy money on Merab then.

"Easy money" vs Umar who has the striking, submission and overall finishing edge on him, and should be able to match Merab's grappling. Good luck!

 

[LoneLynx]

No surprised. He’s visibly shook every time mentions his opponent, he seems to have already been mentally defeated. Very surprised considering the guy’s body of work, maybe he can find a way through but it’s hard to be confident.

 

[gentel]

Merab's definitely underrated here, given that Umar had some trouble getting Sandhagen down and Merab was also getting punches landed on O'Malley in the standup and wasn't afraid of O'Malley's return fire

 

[fortheo]

What do you see playing out best guess / instinct?

One day I favor Umar, the next I favor Merab.

For Merab, I want him to stay on the pressure and stay mid range or clinch range for the majority of the fight. I really want him to stay in Merab's face, kind of cain vs. JDS II style, just throw some strikes, level change to the clinch, if he can't get the Takedown then just wrestle on the fence a bit, strike on the break, then get back in Umar's face and go again and make the guy work nonstop. I don't think Merab will get a ton of takedowns, but if they're scrambling and working a lot, I can only imagine that a fight like that will favor merab as the fight goes on, and that is how merab likes to fight.

Umar needs to find a way to stop Merab's pace and pressure, be it with heavy counters on the feet that make merab hesitant to close the distance and thus stay at umar's preferred range (kicking range), or he needs to get his own takedowns and more importantly get merab's back and try to kill minutes off the clock that way. I suspect It will be very hard for umar to get his hooks in and stay on merab's back for a long period of time considering Merab has been training with Sterling forever, but I do think Umar will try.

The big questions for me are: How does merab get past the kicking range and will he try to catch kicks and convert them to takedowns? and how does Umar's striking looking when he isn't the only one with a real takedown threat.