Joe NoBrain "I'm revising my thinking about this virus."

[Doughie99]

So far, the virus has killed less than 0.0000087 of the human population.

In the united states, of the current 312,517 cases of covid-19, 9,129 people have died from it. Thats a fatality rate of 0.028

Relax people. Toilet paper won’t save u anyways.

stay strong stay healthy. U wont die. Our economy will be hurt tho.

Well.... to be somewhat a stickler.....a Fatality Rate really is only applicable to people who HAVE already got infected.

- It really doesnt mean too much in technical terms otherwise. Say there's a 100% fatal disease and there's a 1000people trapped in a bulding and they all get it, and becauee it's 100% fatality-rate, they all die. You could say "well guys, it's only 1000people dead out of 330million, so the dead people are only 0.0003%.

That's my analogy : it's pointless doing percentages over the ENTIRE globe population of 7,700,000,000 we know only a very tiny % of human species is *infected*.
If a gunman has access to 7,700,000,000 bullets and he really wants to kill every person on Earth and there's nobody with even a knife to stop him.... it might take him really quite a long time to shoot everyone dead,....but he's gonna get there eventually. Doesn't help much to say after the first day "well....there's only 2,000dead....so the fatality rate it only 0.00000000001% (or whatever).

Whats important is keeping it as contained as possible.

 

[randomg1t]

"... nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before... every couple of years there's a flu that's a bit worse than the other flus were and it goes away in exactly the way the other flus went away and this one behaves exactly the same way" (Timestamped)

Professor Knut Wittkowski (Rockefeller University)

• Head, Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science
  1998 – Jun 2018

Clearly a dipshit.

yeah, he clearly is one, if he's still saying those things.

nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before, except the incubation period, the level of contagiousness, the mortality rate.

so tell me, when does this go away? by mid april? by may? at what point will the entire world say "ooooh, it's just the flu, look it went away, we were so silly"?

 

[The Gooch]

Dr. Drew is a fake as they come.

He always has been (back to MTV) and he is worse now.

Fake how? Like a fake doctor? Like how Bill Nye is a fake scientist or fake like Jim Carrey method acting Andy Kaufman or like professional wrestling?

 

[tozot]

These are the numbers that should matter:
CLOSED CASES

339,679 Cases which had an outcome:
269,496 (79%) Recovered / Discharged
70,183 (21%) Deaths

Notice 21% of the cases result in death...

Check here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Prex32]

These are the numbers that should matter:
CLOSED CASES

339,679 Cases which had an outcome:
269,496 (79%) Recovered / Discharged
70,183 (21%) Deaths

Notice 21% of the cases result in death...

Check here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

are those as accurate as cnn polls?

 

[randomg1t]

These are the numbers that should matter:
CLOSED CASES

339,679 Cases which had an outcome:
269,496 (79%) Recovered / Discharged
70,183 (21%) Deaths

Notice 21% of the cases result in death...

Check here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

well, to be fair, those are somewhat misleading.

the mortality rate for this virus isn't really 21%, for two main reasons. first, the testing is heavily biased towards those with severe symptoms, a large part of the population is infected and they never get tested, which means they aren't represented in the official statistics as a positive that recovered. second, this number is tilted towards deaths because in a lot of places like italy, the issue was the overwhelmed healthcare system which couldn't treat people, which meant even those who could survive it in normal circumstances, died.

that said, this still isn't just a fucking flu, and it isn't going to go away on its own. the estimated mortality rate for the virus is somewhere around 2%, which is still a massive fucking number and nothing to joke about. to put it in perspective, a 2% mortality rate on US population would result in 6.5 million deaths. that's roughly LA and chicago, combined.

liberal hoax, everyone.

 

[sgtrocknroll]

View attachment 754571

So what does that chart tell you? Oh most people can’t read and understand at the same time. Sure the virus can affect anyone, BUT those at most risk are the already in poor health or older. Be prepared and be smart.

 

[do a moniker]

what do you think about this? That the ventilators are doing more harm than good.

Eh it’s far more nuanced than that. If you read what I posted before, the other MD I quoted had a similar sentiment. It needs to be done correctly. Venting is not a binary set or forget type thing

 

[randomg1t]

I don't think you understand my point.

Those at high risks ( old and with compromised immune systems) should stay in lock down, but the general public numbers excluding those demographics are much lower. Less than 50%.

Then you also have to remember not every one gets sick at once, it has an RO factor 2.

Im not saying ignore it, but remaining conscious of it(washing hands, and if you have any symptoms staying home, the likely hood of infection during incubation phase is not likely according to the WHO) while society goes on. Thayw have a greater impact on the virus, than everyone hiding in their basement for months on end, keeping the herd immunity rate low, and dragging this issue on, while extending the time our most vulnerable remain at risk.

except what you're saying makes no sense at all.

the R factor is actually closer to 3, but whatever. it's estimated between 30% and 50% of those infected are asymptomatic. it is not in any way confirmed that they are not contagious. in fact, the current theory is that you can infect people in the final two days of incubation period, before showing any symptoms.

if you want herd immunity, you need at least 70% of the population infected. if that's the goal, it's better to do nothing, sure. but i don't think you want that, because it will mean millions of deaths, literally.

the reason people are hiding in their basements isn't out of fear that they'll die. it's so the spread is slowed down, because hospitals are already being overrun and this shit hasn't even started yet. it's mind boggling to me how few people understand this. the virus hasn't even gotten started, and there are states in the US where hospitals simply cannot cope with it. this is literally what caused the italian horror story, and is causing major havoc in spain right now.

the only way to stop this surge is to go into lockdown. once you slow the spread down a little bit, you can move forward with people wearing masks, disinfecting their hands, etc. you open up certain parts of the industry, and you do it carefully.

do you think the end game is to stay locked up for ever? no one fucking wants that. but when the numbers are rising exponentially the dumbest fucks in the room keep insisting people should just go about their lives like nothing's happening. that's not going to save the economy. it's going to collapse it under the burden of millions of preventable deaths.

 

[do a moniker]

except what you're saying makes no sense at all.

the R factor is actually closer to 3, but whatever. it's estimated between 30% and 50% of those infected are asymptomatic. it is not in any way confirmed that they are not contagious. in fact, the current theory is that you can infect people in the final two days of incubation period, before showing any symptoms.

if you want herd immunity, you need at least 70% of the population infected. if that's the goal, it's better to do nothing, sure. but i don't think you want that, because it will mean millions of deaths, literally.

the reason people are hiding in their basements isn't out of fear that they'll die. it's so the spread is slowed down, because hospitals are already being overrun and this shit hasn't even started yet. it's mind boggling to me how few people understand this. the virus hasn't even gotten started, and there are states in the US where hospitals simply cannot cope with it. this is literally what caused the italian horror story, and is causing major havoc in spain right now.

the only way to stop this surge is to go into lockdown. once you slow the spread down a little bit, you can move forward with people wearing masks, disinfecting their hands, etc. you open up certain parts of the industry, and you do it carefully.

do you think the end game is to stay locked up for ever? no one fucking wants that. but when the numbers are rising exponentially the dumbest fucks in the room keep insisting people should just go about their lives like nothing's happening. that's not going to save the economy. it's going to collapse it under the burden of millions of preventable deaths.

Damn dude. That was an outstanding response. Josh always makes arguments that aren’t technically incorrect, but completely misappropriated. Good work on rerouting to more relevant analysis

 

[JoshR86]

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except what you're saying makes no sense at all.

the R factor is actually closer to 3, but whatever. it's estimated between 30% and 50% of those infected are asymptomatic. it is not in any way confirmed that they are not contagious. in fact, the current theory is that you can infect people in the final two days of incubation period, before showing any symptoms.

if you want herd immunity, you need at least 70% of the population infected. if that's the goal, it's better to do nothing, sure. but i don't think you want that, because it will mean millions of deaths, literally.

the reason people are hiding in their basements isn't out of fear that they'll die. it's so the spread is slowed down, because hospitals are already being overrun and this shit hasn't even started yet. it's mind boggling to me how few people understand this. the virus hasn't even gotten started, and there are states in the US where hospitals simply cannot cope with it. this is literally what caused the italian horror story, and is causing major havoc in spain right now.

the only way to stop this surge is to go into lockdown. once you slow the spread down a little bit, you can move forward with people wearing masks, disinfecting their hands, etc. you open up certain parts of the industry, and you do it carefully.

do you think the end game is to stay locked up for ever? no one fucking wants that. but when the numbers are rising exponentially the dumbest fucks in the room keep insisting people should just go about their lives like nothing's happening. that's not going to save the economy. it's going to collapse it under the burden of millions of preventable deaths.

Actually we have been dealing with it since Nov., We know China had the virus in Nov. From the whistle blower. This is main stream media news, if you look the number of influenza like case started spiking in Nov.

I really don't understand the stupidity in that people think they only started getting it when they started to test for it, especially when the same people will also complain about the lack of testing in the early stages, you know when Trump was dismissing it in January.



And no, the RO factor about 2.25.

Yes you need 70% to kill it, but once you reach 50% the fight gets a lot easier because it makes it very hard for the virus to survive long term.

I understand that the idea is to slow the spread, but majority of healthy young adults and kids are not in danger of it, and the realisticallyh industry won't be overrun society can continue to function while those demographics at risk should remain in lock down until this thing blows over.

The idea is were headed for a 15 year depression which could have a far greater negative impact on society than this pandemic.

 

[grooves12]

Got any stats? I am aware that there are examples of seemingly healthy people getting damage (including lung damage) but am not sure what kind of percentages we are talking about in terms of how bad it is

The problem is the main statistic that is getting thrown around is the death rate. Roughly 2-3% of infected people are dying from the disease. People see that number as low and ignore it as a problem.

However, what is not being made clear is that roughly 20% of infected people are ending up in the ICU with critical intervention needed to save their lives, including the use of a ventilator. This is why hospitals are being overrun.

It's unknown how many of these people that end up in the ICU and survive will be left with long-term problems, but it's probably not an insignificant number.

 

[Robotnickx]

The idea is were headed for a 15 year depression which could have a far greater negative impact on society than this pandemic.

Clearly you haven't received your daily dose of fear and state-mandated education. 15 year depression? Who cares if millions of lives are destroyed, who cares if there's riots in the streets, who cares if crime skyrockets, who cares if we see the biggest economic collapse in history. If you worry about any of that you're just a selfish whackjob that should be put in jail.

We need to focus myopically, get in line and obey every order given without thinking because shortsighted univariate groupthink is the smart way to run a society and never leads anywhere bad.

 

[IDL]

The problem is the main statistic that is getting thrown around is the death rate. Roughly 2-3% of infected people are dying from the disease. People see that number as low and ignore it as a problem.

However, what is not being made clear is that roughly 20% of infected people are ending up in the ICU with critical intervention needed to save their lives, including the use of a ventilator. This is why hospitals are being overrun.

It's unknown how many of these people that end up in the ICU and survive will be left with long-term problems, but it's probably not an insignificant number.

Even those numbers won't be accurate, and in reality would be much lower. I have to think, that the majority of cases go unreported. Most would be asymptomatic or mild, in which case there would be no testing.

so the death rate would be much lower, as would the rate of cases ending up in the ICU.

Of course it is still a problem and there is an increased demand on health resources that has to be mitigated and managed though.

 

[KAZSoliloquy]

Well.................

Imagine if measures weren't taken to TRY to slow it's spread...............

That would be WORSE and kill waaaaaaaaaaaaay more people than the economic collapse that is soon to follow whilst we practice social distancing, etc.

there are barely any measures being taken in america to stop it. basically everything is still open in my state of massachusetts. our governor doesn’t give a shit. i still work around hundreds of people a day and the traffic is no lighter. it’s stupid

 

[Doughie99]

there are barely any measures being taken in america to stop it. basically everything is still open in my state of massachusetts. our governor doesn’t give a shit. i still work around hundreds of people a day and the traffic is no lighter. it’s stupid

this is what I suspected would happen. Some people just carrying on as normal with an "I'm OK Jack" attitude.
Whether it spikes today or tomorrow or next week or next month in each State / town / city, it is almost inevitable especially if people just aren't changing their routines. Unfortunate.

 

[The Big Bang]

there are barely any measures being taken in america to stop it. basically everything is still open in my state of massachusetts. our governor doesn’t give a shit. i still work around hundreds of people a day and the traffic is no lighter. it’s stupid

I'm sorry.

I live in Seattle, and overall people are taking it seriously, relatively speaking.

 

[randomg1t]

Actually we have been dealing with it since Nov., We know China had the virus in Nov. From the whistle blower. This is main stream media news, if you look the number of influenza like case started spiking in Nov.

I really don't understand the stupidity in that people think they only started getting it when they started to test for it, especially when the same people will also complain about the lack of testing in the early stages, you know when Trump was dismissing it in January.



And no, the RO factor about 2.25.

Yes you need 70% to kill it, but once you reach 50% the fight gets a lot easier because it makes it very hard for the virus to survive long term.

I understand that the idea is to slow the spread, but majority of healthy young adults and kids are not in danger of it, and the realisticallyh industry won't be overrun society can continue to function while those demographics at risk should remain in lock down until this thing blows over.

The idea is were headed for a 15 year depression which could have a far greater negative impact on society than this pandemic.

when i say the thing is only getting started i don't mean that the virus entered US territory now. i mean the US is at the beginning of the exponential curve.

WHO has estimated R to be between 2 and 2.5, and several other sources have had it at 3. but i agree that it really doesn't matter at all to the argument that i'm trying to make here. 2 still means exponential growth and it's horrifying.

you seem to think that out of the 50%, very few people will require hospitalisation. are you paying any attention to what's going on in NY? do you understand what's going on in italy and spain? the two worst hot spots in europe are in countries in total lockdown, and it took weeks for italy to finally somewhat slow down the progress. not stop it, just slow it down.

even if every number i cite here is wrong, if i'm off by a multiplier of 100, you're still seeing reports from actual hospitals saying they're at maximum capacity and can't handle any new patients. you're seeing this right now, when numbers aren't showing any indication whatsoever of slowing down. do you understand what i'm saying? forget the numbers and predictions i'm citing. just look at the current state.

do you feel like the country can just forget about having any healthcare available for a few months? because with an overrun system, that's what happens. cancer treatment, appendixes, concussions, car crashes, fires... people that need any kind of medical attention are fucked because there simply aren't enough people in any hospital to help them out. even if we go the selfish asshole route and say fuck it, only the weak will die from this, all of us healthy young bucks don't give a flying fuck about these feeble inferiors... even if we do that, are you truly willing to gamble your life on this, knowing that whatever bad thing happens to you or your loved ones in the next couple of months, no doctors are available to help you out?

people like you keep saying we need to save the economy because the consequences of staying in lockdown will be worse in the long run. you don't understand than an unchecked pandemic causing literal millions of deaths will also fuck up the economy. not slow it down, drive it to the fucking ground. so your current choice isn't death or immense economical damage. the damage is already off the table and is happening regardless.

 

[sgtrocknroll]

??? Money can always be made again..but the people who die from this are gone forever..maybe one them was gunna cure cancer or end famine in certain regions or maybe give birth to the next great world leader?sports star ..who knows ..

People are worth more then money ..any day all day...

Or maybe a poster on Sherdog? Defiantly need to save him.

 

[TruthHurts001]

We will all look back on this the most sensationalized, most over-exaggerated "pandemic" in history.