Joe NoBrain "I'm revising my thinking about this virus."

[Doughie99]

That's cute. That is the first time you mentioned a single one of those topics in our entire discourse. Initial discussion was regarding readiness in areas and lack of supplies. Classic attempt at misdirection. Fortunately, as neither a healthcare work nor policy maker, your stubborn predetermined opinions have zero effect on what action is actually going to be taken. Over this. I'll go back to taking care of my patients and you can go back to puffing your chest out on internet forums. Yawn. Thanks for the discussions.

Maybe we raised a bit of awareness for other folks in all of this, and thus it wasn't all a waste. Good luck and stay safe my fellow sherdogger!

Jeffrey I thank you for your medical work and saving as many people as you can in Pennsylvania at this very difficult time. I hope things go as well as possible. The American people owe you and your colleagues a sincere debt of gratitude and appreciation.

 

[do a moniker]

I prefer to listen to a doctor on the subject. Dr. Drew is trying to remain down to earth about it. We'll see if things change but as of last week, Drew is pissed about the media blowing this thing to shit for clicks.

His opinion starts the show.

Boy this didn't age well did it...To be fair I (a physician myself) followed this exact same initial course, and abrupt about face

https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/dr-drew-coronavirus-flu-death-threats/

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

Boy this didn't age well did it...To be fair I (a physician myself) followed this exact same initial course, and abrupt about face

https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/dr-drew-coronavirus-flu-death-threats/

what do you think about this? That the ventilators are doing more harm than good.

 

[Rubberchin]

I don't really like getting into long debates on forums about these things. But I'll just post some recent quotes and info that again calls these extraordinary measures being taken into question:

"Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%."
Oxford University (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)


"I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic." (https://novuscomms.com/2020/03/31/a...orphan-orph-laboratory-professor-john-oxford/)
John Oxford - Professor John Sydney Oxford (born 6 March 1942) is an English virologist, Professor of Queen Mary, University of London. He is a leading expert on influenza, including bird flu and the 1918 Spanish Influenza, and HIV/AIDS.



"There are no indications that anything is different from regular flu"
(10 mins 45 secs)
Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University's Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design



"New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375)

 

[randomg1t]

it's absolutely astonishing how many dipshits are still repeating the "it's just the flu" mantra, while telling all of us to open our eyes and stop being blind.

the media is lying, obviously. but has any one of you morons attempted to perhaps check media outside the US? or do you believe that every single news outlet in the world is part of this conspiracy?

bergamo in italy has roughly 40 funerals a week in this season. last week they had 600. did they just never experience the regular flu before?

 

[ufcfan4]

I don't really like getting into long debates on forums about these things. But I'll just post some recent quotes and info that again calls these extraordinary measures being taken into question:

"Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%."
Oxford University (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)


"I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic." (https://novuscomms.com/2020/03/31/a...orphan-orph-laboratory-professor-john-oxford/)
John Oxford - Professor John Sydney Oxford (born 6 March 1942) is an English virologist, Professor of Queen Mary, University of London. He is a leading expert on influenza, including bird flu and the 1918 Spanish Influenza, and HIV/AIDS.



"There are no indications that anything is different from regular flu"
(10 mins 45 secs)
Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University's Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design



"New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375)

Man, imagine being named Tom Jefferson...

Well, this is why it's hugely important to get that antibodies/serology test out now, no? Wouldn't it be nice to know just how pervasive is among particular countries and populations.

 

[randomg1t]

Lol ok so atleast you admit this is all an over preparedness and reacting to worse case doomsday scenarios where we assume the virus is a lot more dangerous and severe than we've seen.

Also, don't send me garbage reports of Doctors asking for money, that is not proof and the fact that that is the article a physician would send me, makes me strongly doubt your supposed field of expertise.

But let's neglect that, my original stance, from day one, is that the faster the general public becomes immunized the better off we are.

Statistically of those tested, 50% don't even have symptoms, correct?? Although the popular theory among professionals is that the number is actually a lot more, because people who don't have symptoms don't go to get tested, only those with known contact with an infected person gets tested, so the numbers are believed to be much lower than what is being reported. Yet as a professional, you neglect this very important piece of information.

Lets continue.


The worse demographics who suffer from the pandemic are old people and people with immune deficiencies correct??

My argument from day 1, is it is better for society to continue to function, (this doesn't mean to not prepare and purchase more ventilators, beds, ect.) What it means is people should go back to work, the old and compromised should be on lock down, until we hit a 50-60% immunized rate, at that point the RO factor drop to the same as the flu.

you don't seem to understand that some 10% of all those who are diagnosed with the virus need medical care. ignoring the pandemic and going about your business as you normally would, 70% of the country gets infected pretty quickly, which is great according to your plan.

except that means that some 7% of the population need medical care. that's over 20 million people. do you think the US healthcare system can easily handle an extra 20 million people in a couple of weeks?

if all those who need medical attention are treated, the mortality rate is estimated to be somewhere around 2%. if the system is overwhelmed and no one gets treated, the death rate will rise all the way to the number of people who need medical attention, which is an astounding number.

so the choice here is that everyone lays low and we try to flatten the curve, or we can do it your way, close our eyes for 5 weeks and have 20 million people die.

 

[Afrikan]

Yall should read the first 20 pages of the off topic thread about this virus.

Actually don't....it's what you would expect from a certain side of Sherdog.

 

[LZD]

I got bad news: it is literally just the flu, bro. I mean literally just the flu.

You corona doomsday cultists are totally nuts and idiotic.

This post did not age well. And it's only going to look stupider every day.

Also, the Spanish flu is literally just the flu bro. Literally just the flu.

 

[randomg1t]

This post did not age well. And it's only going to look stupider every day.

Also, the Spanish flu is literally just the flu bro. Literally just the flu.

it doesn't look that stupid when you realise his next post is literally saying we should let 2 million old people die so that the economy doesn't collapse.

see, this is just the flu, but it will kill several million people instead, and it doesn't matter as long as the economy is fine. which, it's totally going to be, despite having 2 million people die in excruciating pain.

 

[The Gooch]

Boy this didn't age well did it...To be fair I (a physician myself) followed this exact same initial course, and abrupt about face

https://heavy.com/news/2020/04/dr-drew-coronavirus-flu-death-threats/

He has been saying to listen to Anthony Fauci for awhile now. Fauci is ramping up what we should be doing in order to help the crisis. Dr. Drew admits to not taking it as seriously as he should have. I still think we're getting way more doomsday from the media than we should be. It's what sells and they need to make money. I don't need to hear about the death of a 75 year old that performed plastic surgery on Zsa Zsa Gabor.

 

[wearetheromans]

it doesn't look that stupid when you realise his next post is literally saying we should let 2 million old people die so that the economy doesn't collapse.

see, this is just the flu, but it will kill several million people instead, and it doesn't matter as long as the economy is fine. which, it's totally going to be, despite having 2 million people die in excruciating pain.

And to follow this.. acting like removing 2 million people won't crush the economy anyway. 2 million families mourning at funerals, 2 million funerals to arrange, etc etc

 

[JoshR86]

you don't seem to understand that some 10% of all those who are diagnosed with the virus need medical care. ignoring the pandemic and going about your business as you normally would, 70% of the country gets infected pretty quickly, which is great according to your plan.

except that means that some 7% of the population need medical care. that's over 20 million people. do you think the US healthcare system can easily handle an extra 20 million people in a couple of weeks?

if all those who need medical attention are treated, the mortality rate is estimated to be somewhere around 2%. if the system is overwhelmed and no one gets treated, the death rate will rise all the way to the number of people who need medical attention, which is an astounding number.

so the choice here is that everyone lays low and we try to flatten the curve, or we can do it your way, close our eyes for 5 weeks and have 20 million people die.

I don't think you understand my point.

Those at high risks ( old and with compromised immune systems) should stay in lock down, but the general public numbers excluding those demographics are much lower. Less than 50%.

Then you also have to remember not every one gets sick at once, it has an RO factor 2.

Im not saying ignore it, but remaining conscious of it(washing hands, and if you have any symptoms staying home, the likely hood of infection during incubation phase is not likely according to the WHO) while society goes on. Thayw have a greater impact on the virus, than everyone hiding in their basement for months on end, keeping the herd immunity rate low, and dragging this issue on, while extending the time our most vulnerable remain at risk.

 

[The Big Bang]

He has been saying to listen to Anthony Fauci for awhile now. Fauci is ramping up what we should be doing in order to help the crisis. Dr. Drew admits to not taking it as seriously as he should have. I still think we're getting way more doomsday from the media than we should be. It's what sells and they need to make money. I don't need to hear about the death of a 75 year old that performed plastic surgery on Zsa Zsa Gabor.

Dr. Drew is a fake as they come.

He always has been (back to MTV) and he is worse now.

 

[Rubberchin]

it's absolutely astonishing how many dipshits are still repeating the "it's just the flu" mantra, while telling all of us to open our eyes and stop being blind.

"... nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before... every couple of years there's a flu that's a bit worse than the other flus were and it goes away in exactly the way the other flus went away and this one behaves exactly the same way" (Timestamped)

Professor Knut Wittkowski (Rockefeller University)

• Head, Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science
  1998 – Jun 2018

Clearly a dipshit.

 

[LZD]

"... nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before... every couple of years there's a flu that's a bit worse than the other flus were and it goes away in exactly the way the other flus went away and this one behaves exactly the same way" (Timestamped)

Professor Knut Wittkowski (Rockefeller University)

• Head, Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science
  1998 – Jun 2018

Clearly a dipshit.

He's in the vast minority of experts speaking like that. He'll walk away from his statements very soon, unless he dogmatically sticks to his guns.

There's a reason the world is basically shutting down it's economy. It's the absolute last thing they want to do and they're doing it anyway. That tells you all you need to know.

 

[Rubberchin]

He's in the vast minority of experts speaking like that. He'll walk away from his statements very soon, unless he dogmatically sticks to his guns.

There's a reason the world is basically shutting down it's economy. It's the absolute last thing they want to do and they're doing it anyway. That tells you all you need to know.

The most recent updates from the team at Oxford University state:

"Estimating COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) (Update 29TH March)
The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards. For example, In Wuhan, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. It is increasingly clear that current testing strategies are not capturing everybody. In South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics- likely driving the rapid worldwide spread.

CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. The number of currently infected asymptomatics is uncertain: estimates put it at least a half are asymptomatic; the proportion not coming forward for testing is also highly doubtful (i.e. you are symptomatic, but you do not present for testing). Therefore we can assume the IFR is significantly lower than the CFR.

Emerging evidence suggests many more people are infected. than tested. In Vo Italy, at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, about 3%, had already been infected – most were completely asymptomatic.

We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*"

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

[Possum]

Wheres the bodies? Wheres the footage of flooded hospitals? Oh thats right,theres none. The official number for US deaths is around 8283 thousand in 2 months,which is less than what the normal flu wouldve killed in 2 months anyway. It's just the flu,you fuckin retards.Coronavirus is nothing new. Annually 50-80k Americans die from the flu despite the vaccines. Thats 4-6k people a month. 2x5=10k people in 2 months..and eveyrones freaking out about "coronavirus".

Exactly! All these suppossed numbers of corona deaths are all inflated with no real proof. So how many of those are from the actual flu? So 8000 total deaths in 2 months and 5000 are the flu and 2000 are other causes. Lmao. People will believe anything!

 

[Doughie99]

"... nothing is fundamentally different from the flus that we have seen before... every couple of years there's a flu that's a bit worse than the other flus were and it goes away in exactly the way the other flus went away and this one behaves exactly the same way" (Timestamped)

Professor Knut Wittkowski (Rockefeller University)

• Head, Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, Center for Clinical & Translational Science
  1998 – Jun 2018

Clearly a dipshit.

Tell you what --- let's all reconvene back here in exactly 1 month and check the numbers in USA then shall we?

So... 5th May is in 1month. Let's see if this guy Wittkowski is right that this is (quote) "nothing fundamentally different from the flus we have seen before". Nothing is as accurate as looking at the data in retrospect, and in 30days time we have much more data.

so let's see then.

My best projection is this -- at that time, 5th May (exactly 1 month from now), there will be between 175,000 and 780,000 dead American citizens, all from this "flu that's not fundamentally different".

 

[wearetheromans]

He's in the vast minority of experts speaking like that. He'll walk away from his statements very soon, unless he dogmatically sticks to his guns.

There's a reason the world is basically shutting down it's economy. It's the absolute last thing they want to do and they're doing it anyway. That tells you all you need to know.

I've tried to make this point before and the dumbasses still don't get it. We have a range of right wing neoliberal economics free market worshipping governments around the world. Economy has always been number 1. Yet the response has been the same. If that doesn't tell you what you need to know about this virus....