JDM will get outclassed. Im saying it first

[Safton]

I'm worried about Jack's chances in no small part because he keeps saying that he "just sees it as a rerun of the Belal fight" or something similar. I'm sure he is oversimplifying on purpose, but I think it's a mistake to look at the match-up as identical beyond the most basic blueprint.

Islam is so much more well-rounded than Belal. Belal's only weapon other than his wrestling is some competent pressure-boxing, but trying to box with JDM in the pocket plays right into the Aussie's wheelhouse. Also, Belal's top game is all about control, with comparably few finishing options. Conversely, Islam -- while perhaps not particularly comfortable boxing in the pocket -- has a far more diverse & technical striking game. He has excellent kicks along with the ability to fight off his back foot if need be by sniping or setting traps. In the grappling department, he has a wider variety of takedowns thanks to his Judo pedigree, alongside a dangerous top game that always seeks to place his opponent in submission danger. I think he's more comfortable in the clinch than Belal is, too.

That having been said... Jack is very live here in no small part due to the improvements showcased against Belal. And I can't get out of my head how hard Islam made the Poirier fight look. In my opinion, Jack can do a lot of what Poirier can and is theoretically a somewhat similar stylistic challenge.

I favor Islam, but no outcome would surprise me.

 

[NadaRekowski]

Crazy how little credit JDM gets on here. Guy wins the world title after being sat out for 15 months due to a fucked up bone infection in his arm. Comes back and looks better than ever.

I mean, guys wearing an earring so he'll surely lose.

 

[CroCopsLHK]

Its a lot closer then people make it out. I see overwhelming support for JDM and choosing to win. I am shocked. Islam is a very special fighter and probably much better than Belal. They say he's #1 P4P. And he's had a lot of time to plan and fill to 170

Trust me im rooting for JDM but Jeez Louise!

 

[Harlekin]

Saying Islam will outclass him - a possibility
Saying JDM is a welterweight Dan Hooker - is fucking stupid and TS has never trained any standup

 

[ComeChooDaddy]

He’ll probably accept a few million from the Saudis to take a dive

 

[Through The Looking Glass]

I was watching Islam fights the other day and was reminded how great he is.

That being said JDM is his toughest matchup I believe. If he wins nobody gonna beat him

 

[Rdude92]

Saying Islam will outclass him - a possibility
Saying JDM is a welterweight Dan Hooker - is fucking stupid and TS has never trained any standup

True. Never. I only got grappling background in judo n bjj. Thinking of taking up boxing in the future though

 

[Marko Polo]

I don’t think so. I’d even say Belal is a tougher match up

 

[Skarsgard]

it is actually very realistic you have a deeper insight of JDM than I do.

brings me to the question, what do you predict on saturday?

Not sure what to expect. On paper, Islam overcame better fighters than JDM has. He's coming up in weight and already seems to be well-suited for the division. Throw in the way JDM looked in his last few, and I dunno. Despite being an undefeated champ, he has hardly looked like a world beater.
My guess is a late sub like in the Poirier fight, but I'm not super confident in that pick.

 

[Karate Kid]

Not sure what to expect. On paper, Islam overcame better fighters than JDM has. He's coming up in weight and already seems to be well-suited for the division. Throw in the way JDM looked in his last few, and I dunno. Despite being an undefeated champ, he has hardly looked like a world beater.
My guess is a late sub like in the Poirier fight, but I'm not super confident in that pick.

i am surprised you say his recent fights given how he finished Burns let alone his marquee win in Belal and not just due to winning the belt but the 4-1 rounds as a whole in dominating a formidable opponent.

indeed using the Belal fight as a litmus test against Islam means little as fact is Islam is better in every sense of the word than Belal himself and it isnt even close. only thing belal has over him is a very strong chin but thats it.

 

[Skarsgard]

i am surprised you say his recent fights given how he finished Burns let alone his marquee win in Belal and not just due to winning the belt but the 4-1 rounds as a whole in dominating a formidable opponent.

indeed using the Belal fight as a litmus test against Islam means little as fact is Islam is better in every sense of the word than Belal himself and it isnt even close. only thing belal has over him is a very strong chin but thats it.

He got worked over by a washed Burns before digging deep and getting the finish. Hard to hold that in high esteem.

Domination is a strong word for Belal. It was a back-and-forth fight with the right guy winning close rounds. That'd be great if Belal had tried to grapple, but instead he just sort of stayed in the pocket and threw. Admirable and probably his most exciting fight to date, but not what won him the belt. Of course, we can sit here and dissect that one to death again.

 

[jeff7b9]

It's amazing to me that they just leave sewage on the mat.

That should be a fight pause while they dump disinfectant everywhere

Would you fight after that?

I can't imagine they keep a fucking hazmat staff on site.


"OK Jeff , youre up next. Your fight its time


Not on the dookie mat



We cleaned it up.

Nah. Nope. No I can still see it.
You must have lost your goddamn mind.
I ain't fighting on nobody's dookie...

Re book it."

 

[SuperAlly]

I'm worried about Jack's chances in no small part because he keeps saying that he "just sees it as a rerun of the Belal fight" or something similar. I'm sure he is oversimplifying on purpose, but I think it's a mistake to look at the match-up as identical beyond the most basic blueprint.

Islam is so much more well-rounded than Belal. Belal's only weapon other than his wrestling is some competent pressure-boxing, but trying to box with JDM in the pocket plays right into the Aussie's wheelhouse. Also, Belal's top game is all about control, with comparably few finishing options. Conversely, Islam -- while perhaps not particularly comfortable boxing in the pocket -- has a far more diverse & technical striking game. He has excellent kicks along with the ability to fight off his back foot if need be by sniping or setting traps. In the grappling department, he has a wider variety of takedowns thanks to his Judo pedigree, alongside a dangerous top game that always seeks to place the other guy in submission danger. I think he's more comfortable in the clinch than Belal is, too.

That having been said... Jack is very live here in no small part due to the improvements showcased against Belal. And I can't get out of my head how hard Islam made the Poirier fight look. In my opinion, Jack can do a lot of what Poirier can and is theoretically challenging him in similar ways.

I favor Islam, but no outcome would surprise me.

Good reasoned analysis overall

 

[Streeter]

Depends on JDM mentality goung in.


If JDM ia passive and cautious afraid of take down he loses pretty handily likely 49 45. If he fights aggressive with confidence not fearing the tske down its a toss up. He cant point fight to set up the power shots he has to throw at least half his strikes power shots . Mak has a aversge chin that can be cracked if you land on him.

If Jdm fights cautious it will be a boring hug feat with pillow strikes and choke attempts . If JD. Fights aggressive it could be a really fun fight.

 

[anuscakes]

Most of the JDM, Belal fight the striking numbers weren't too far off, and the first 3 rounds Belal barely shot for a takedown. Islam's grappling is most likely at a completely different level than Belal. I don't see JDM having the same success striking with Islam because of this. Islam will 100% get him down in the first round and most likely keep him there. Islam has better striking than a lot of people give him credit for and is capable of knocking JDM out. If Islam presents a good takedown threat, this fight most likely is pretty one sided.

 

[bjjwar]

I think skill and style wise, Islam has this in the bag BUT if JDM can make it half ass competitive, I’m VERY interested to see how Islam’s gas tank holds up after going up a weight class.

Cliffs - Islam, aslong as he doesn’t gas out.

Cardio and power wise it should be way better for Islam then at LW. Cutting weight is terrible for your cardio.

 

[Bradillac]

Its a lot closer then people make it out. I see overwhelming support for JDM and choosing to win. I am shocked. Islam is a very special fighter and probably much better than Belal. They say he's #1 P4P. And he's had a lot of time to plan and fill to 170

Trust me im rooting for JDM but Jeez Louise!

"They" say a lot of things. Islam's fights against Volk and Poirier should give people a lot of concerns. The first round will be very telling, if he's not able to impose his will against Jack like he wasn't able to against Volk and Dustin, he's going to get brutalized like Belal did.

Personally, I think Belal is a bigger and better version of Islam who has fought much tougher competition than Islam.

 

[188912345]

He got worked over by a washed Burns before digging deep and getting the finish. Hard to hold that in high esteem.

Domination is a strong word for Belal. It was a back-and-forth fight with the right guy winning close rounds. That'd be great if Belal had tried to grapple, but instead he just sort of stayed in the pocket and threw. Admirable and probably his most exciting fight to date, but not what won him the belt. Of course, we can sit here and dissect that one to death again.

He broke his arm in round 1 vs Burns.

Only thing that kept Belal in that fight was his chin, he took big punishment for his failed takedown attempts. Also, Belal doesn't spam takedowns like Merab.

I think people overestimate how competitive that fight was due to some fake numbers for significant strikes that showed up on the screen.

We are probably in for a good, competitive fight.

 

[Söze Aldo]

It's fight week you're not the first to claim this.

Either Islam or JDM will win this fight, you heard it here first.

 

[MRT]

People are downplaying Volk. Thats the reason this match up seems competitive.

"Islam gonna have a hard time with JDM. Just look at his fights with Volk."

JDM is not Volkanovski!
And he will never be as explosive as that legendary dwarf.

Makachev gonna embarass JDM on the ground. Its not gonna be close.
Hes only a welterweight Dan Hooker

It is fine to predict that Islam will dominate JDM on the ground...but your thread title claiming that you are the first to express this idea is quite ridiculous lol

Islam is a -2.50 (or better) favourite for a reason.