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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 1, 2020.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I think Lewis got a HUGE payday when he fought DC for the title. Someone had pulled out and it was a NYC card. Lewis had steam because he was coming off the "My balls was hot" fight. I'm pretty sure he got like $2m or more to save that card. He's set as long as he's not a moron with his $.

    Agree on the fight too. Daukus is far more technical, has faster hands, and probably cares a lot more at this point. Lewis isn't as durable as he used to be either. Or more accurately, he likely cares less and isn't gonna try as hard to fight through adversity.

    Daukus near evens is the side, lime you said with the understanding that Lewis is capable of pulling a KO out of his ass against anyone.
     
  2. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I have been getting more into live betting and I am interested in any streaming services that run without time lag and are consistent. I am more than willing to pay. Please keep this out of the thread and PM with whatever you have available.

    Cheers.
     
  3. So Edwards vs Khazmat is being targeted yet again.

    Has anyone's mind changed in the last 6 months? I know a lot of people were on the Edwards side.

    Personally Khazmat's last win did nothing to sway my view of this fight. If it's 5 rounds, I favor Leon. If it's 3, Khazmat.
     
  4. Kamais_Ookin Silver Belt

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    I'd be very surprised if edwards took it, would require Dana to pay up which remains to be seen. Khabig already called out burns and belal in anticipation of edwards not accepting the fight.
     
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  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Honestly...I think I do favor Khazmat. He just seems to be something special. Edwards is a very good fighter, but he's not special imo. Khazmat is (and yes, that's just a "feeling" based on a small sample size of dominance with Jianlang being his best win).

    I remember really similar things being said about Jon Jones when he was coming up through LHW and running through guys. People thought it was insane that he was favored over Shogun for the title when Jones best win was Bader (who was also a relatively unproven prospect at the time). Shogun was so much more proven and coming off a destruction of Machida. And then Jones just went in and made Shogun look like a child. It wasn't even fair.

    Khazmat so far is just ragdolling everyone. Leon is absolutely a huge step up...but was anyone really inspired by his performance vs Nate? He did enough to win the early rounds of course but faded horribly and damn near got finished by Nate in the 5th round. I'm not so sure Leon's gas tank is such a huge weapon vs Khazmat.
     
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  6. Leon is just so incredibly well rounded. Endless cardio, very technical striker that mixes up kicks and uses his reach well. He has a nasty clinch game too.

    I see Khazmat getting him down, but Leon making him work, and getting back up to the cage. We really have no idea how Khazmat's cardio is -- if he implements a grapple heavy approach, he could gas himself out. But in a 3 round fight, he could very well win 2/3 rounds.

    In a five round fight, I think Leon takes over late. There's going to be a lot of recency bias factored into the line.

    Last year when this fight was being made, Edwards was around +150. I bet he'll be +250 to +350 or so now.

    Edwards is proven, Khazmat's best win is Leech, who was taken down at will by Jake Matthews. This would be a HUGE step up in competition for him.

    If he beats Leon convincingly in a five round fight, I'm all aboard the train. But unlike Shavkat, I'm still not sold on Khazmat, despite his theatrics.
     
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  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If Khazmat is -300, betting him would be absurd. I'd never argue otherwise. I'm just saying I favor him and think -150 seems **about** right.

    Leon really didn't look amazing vs Nate at all. He definitely didn't show "endless cardio". He was exhausted and getting his ass kicked Rd 5, almost got finished. And that's by Nate, who really doesn't have much power at all.

    Khazmat seems to just overwhelm guys so far, maybe that ends vs a big step up in competition like what Leon is. But...like Jones vs Shogun maybe it doesn't. Maybe he steamrolls him and finishes him early and it's more like Jones vs Shogun where everyone says "Okay...holy shit. This guy is different, he's special."

    If you get Leon +250 to +350 then hell yeah take a shot. That wouldn't be justified on Khazmat yet. But it's absolutely possible that AFTER the fight we all are saying he looked like a -500 favorite.
     
    Initially likes this.
  8. Haha, I was right on the money. I said +250, edited my post and changed it to +250 to +350.

    Leon opened @ +250 exactly.



    And you're right, khazmat could look -600. If he does, I'll take the L, and not doubt him moving forward.
     
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  9. Main_Card_MMA What are we here to do again?

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    If Chimaev stays standing, I think he'll floor Edwards within 30 seconds. Edwards doesn't pose the same TKO threat as Jingliang so I wouldn't be surprised to see some boxing and a really fast finish. Chimaev's cardio will always be a question and we haven't seen his chin checked, but it's hard to see Edwards doing much except surviving long enough to tire him out. Hopefully he's had some stem cell treatments for his lungs.
     
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  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Edwards +250 is worth a bet, and that's coming from a guy who thinks Khazmat likely wins impressively.
     
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  11. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    This was line around -150 for Khamzat last time and nearly sharp and tout service I saw was on Leon Edwards. It seems forced, as its just because the whole narrative of a UFC vet vs someone who hasn´t faced anyone is a bet at dog odds. I think Khamzat would had finished Edwards. Seeing how fragile Edwards was vs Nate, even though he was tired, hard to see him survive vs Khamzat. And early on likely Khamzat would have a huge strength advantage to take it to the ground. Leon would have to have the best fight of his life in order to win that, as I don´t think he´d really hurt Khamzat, and it´d likely rely on Khamzat gassing for Edwards to win. Just not a good matchup for Edwards at all imo.

    If only the fight had happened then -300 is not really osmething I´d want to play. ITD would be where I´d look.
     
  12. Captain Chesapeake Brown Belt

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    Dan Ige is up to +210 vs Josh emmet

    269 openers were the best lines I’ve seen in a while
     
  13. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Not sure if anyone is interested but you can get DeAndre Anderson at +162 against Damon Blackshear on CFFC and Nikita Dipchikov at +175 against Chris Honeycutt on ACA, both on Betway. Played them both.
     
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  14. I want to unload on Gane, but I expected Francis to be at least -140. The fact he's -115 is rather annoying.

    The value is still there for me on Gane even @ evens, but my greed thought the public would be leaning more towards Francis.
     
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  15. Sakai @ +100 may just be my biggest bet of the year.

    Tai is not very talented. He got rocked by Hardy, and his toughness got him the win there.

    Sakai hits harder than Hardy, and is overall just way better than anyone Tai has fought in the last few years.

    Really surprised Sakai isn't -150 here. Sakai got KO'd by Rozenstruik, who is a much higher caliber opponent than anyone Tai has fought in the UFC. So I guess it's recency bias on Sakai losing brutally, and Tai knocking out Hardy.
     
  16. DonQ94 Green Belt

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    I was surprised by that line as well. Sakai generally is a tough sob who has a much better mma game.
     
  17. Captain Chesapeake Brown Belt

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    He opened at +180. I had him at +160 before it got rescheduled
     
  18. DonQ94 Green Belt

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    Geez, that is one of the most absurd lines i've heard about this year.
     
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  19. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Austen Lane is +550 to beat Juan Adams tonight. Adams is rightfully the favourite but Lane is a glass cannon and Adams got caught by Tafa, so I think there's greater than a 15% chance that he catches Adams.
     
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  20. DonQ94 Green Belt

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    Wasn't able to play it myself but great hit.
     
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