General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

Andrey Koshkin at 2.62 against Bagov looks nice to me. I don't think Bagov has looked good at WW at all.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I'm thinking of parlaying it along with Eskijew, Szymanski and Parnasse.

There's an absolute shitload of MMA on this weekend though, so hoping for some nice opportunities.
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I'll have to look deeper into Eskijew and Syzmanski fights.For now I think I'll take Soldic ITD and Parnasse-Sormova parlay.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I'm thinking of parlaying it along with Eskijew, Szymanski and Parnasse.

There's an absolute shitload of MMA on this weekend though, so hoping for some nice opportunities.
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Bakayoko said:
I'll have to look deeper into Eskijew and Syzmanski fights.For now I think I'll take Soldic ITD and Parnasse-Sormova parlay.
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Shamad over Rewera and Piwowarczyk - Doussis FDGTD is something I would suggest you guys. Shamad is promoted as the next Polish-Chechen superstar. Even Khalidov was hyping him up.
Between Piwowarczyk and Doussis there is only one fight which went to distance. It's on Piwowarczyk side and it was against a guy who always went to decisions in his fights.

PS: It is also worth noting that Adam Niedzwiedz never went to decision. In all his wins and loses he finish or gets finished. FDGTD is a viable choice here too. And be careful with Soldic ITD. Soldic is WW while Khalidov is MW. Mamed was finished just once and by submission from Narkun who is LHW. I don't need to tell you that you shouldn't expect submission from Soldic, right? Mamed ITD is more likely than the other way around. Personally, I wouldn't touch that fight.
 
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Charlie Campbell over Vadim Ogar at CFFC 104 and Vladimir Vasilyev over Denis Tiuliulin at Open FC 15 seems nice to me. Both guys seems like a much better fighters.

Charlie is on 3 fight winning streak, he's more active and big for the weight class. Seems durable with good cardio and powerful kicks. Ogar on the other hand is on 3 fight losing skid and seems fragile. In his last 3 fights he got KO'ed twice. And I recognize that those fighters who finished him were Horcher and Yusuff but he still lost to both under 30 seconds. He's in general very unimpressive.

Vladimir seems like a much better striker than Denis. Vladimir kryptonite are strong wrestlers but Denis ain't one. He's primarily a kickboxer who let his opponents dictate the pace.
It seems like an ideal match-up for Vasilyev. His cardio will not suffer due to wrestling or opponents pressure and he should be able to pick his shots and most likely finish Tiuliulin.

Feedback is much appreciated.

PS: I forgot Asa Ten Pow over Chris Roman at Titan FC 73. Asa is a former Glory kickboxer who's also experienced in Muay Thai and had some MMA fights in the past. Recently he defeated a 2-18 jobber because his og fight was scrapped. Now he's facing a 3-3 Roman who seems to be another stepping stone for Ten Pow.
 
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SherdogWasNeverMyFriend said:
Charlie Campbell over Vadim Ogar at CFFC 104 and Vladimir Vasilyev over Denis Tiuliulin at Open FC 15 seems nice to me. Both guys seems like a much better fighters.

Charlie is on 3 fight winning streak, he's more active and big for the weight class. Seems durable with good cardio and powerful kicks. Ogar on the other hand is on 3 fight losing skid and seems fragile. In his last 3 fights he got KO'ed twice. And I recognize that those fighters who finished him were Horcher and Yusuff but he still lost to both under 30 seconds. He's in general very unimpressive.

Vladimir seems like a much better striker than Denis. Vladimir kryptonite are strong wrestlers but Denis ain't one. He's primarily a kickboxer who let his opponents dictate the pace.
It seems like an ideal match-up for Vasilyev. His cardio will not suffer due to wrestling or opponents pressure and he should be able to pick his shots and most likely finish Tiuliulin.

Feedback is much appreciated.

PS: I forgot Asa Ten Pow over Chris Roman at Titan FC 73. Asa is a former Glory kickboxer who's also experienced in Muay Thai and had some MMA fights in the past. Recently he defeated a 2-18 jobber because his og fight was scrapped. Now he's facing a 3-3 Roman who seems to be another stepping stone for Ten Pow.
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Have you got odds on those yet? I agree with all your assessments on those fights but I don't have any odds yet and I'd be surprised if the bookies were off with them.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Have you got odds on those yet? I agree with all your assessments on those fights but I don't have any odds yet and I'd be surprised if the bookies were off with them.
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I got Charlie for 1.40, Vasilyev for 1.47 and Asa for 1.20. I'm using them as a parlay pieces.
 
Anyone think we'll end up getting really good odds on Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira if that happens next year? Seems the betting market is really starting to believe in Oliveira, he's currently -170 / -200 vs Gaethje.

If Oliveira wins that fight and Makhachev can beat Dariush, it'll be really interesting to see where the betting odds will be. I still expect Makhachev to be favored though, maybe -180 at least (going off what we know today, who knows how these next few fights will reshape our perspectives.)
 
svmr_db said:
Anyone think we'll end up getting really good odds on Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira if that happens next year? Seems the betting market is really starting to believe in Oliveira, he's currently -170 / -200 vs Gaethje.

If Oliveira wins that fight and Makhachev can beat Dariush, it'll be really interesting to see where the betting odds will be. I still expect Makhachev to be favored though, maybe -180 at least (going off what we know today, who knows how these next few fights will reshape our perspectives.)
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Assuming Islam ragdolls Dariush like he has been with everyone...and assuming Charles wins a competitive fight with Justin (but Charles still finishes at some point)...I think you're in the right neighborhood. Islam somewhere between -150 and -200 probably. Possibly as high as -250, but I doubt higher than that.
 
Few more I like on ACA this weekend..

Leonardo Limberger at 1.95 against Sagitov

Pavel Gordeev at 2.05 against Kokov (probably my most confident play)

Bartosz Lesko at 2.62 against Kushagov

Diego Brandao at 3.40 against Polpudnikov (two very inconsistent fighters)



Also on CFFC even at 1.28 Phumi Nkuta seems like okay value, I don't see that guy losing until he hits the rankings in the UFC tbh.
 
William Patolino at 3.40 against that awful Israeli who got pummelled by Mike Malott on DWCS on RCC.

On Fury FC I like Jacob Silva at 3.4 against Nate Smith and Carlos Lozoya at 2.62 against Eric Shelton.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
William Patolino at 3.40 against that awful Israeli who got pummelled by Mike Malott on DWCS on RCC.

On Fury FC I like Jacob Silva at 3.4 against Nate Smith and Carlos Lozoya at 2.62 against Eric Shelton.
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Speaking of RCC, what do you think about Yasubey Enomoto (2.10) over Arseniy Smirnov (1.65)? Enomoto fought much better competition and "recently" was finished only by Kopylov when he was on his run in FNC. Smirnov finished 6 of his 12 fights but he can have trouble doing that to guy like Enomoto, right? My concern is that Enomoto is 38 now and fighters can age overnight in their late years.
 
SherdogWasNeverMyFriend said:
Speaking of RCC, what do you think about Yasubey Enomoto (2.10) over Arseniy Smirnov (1.65)? Enomoto fought much better competition and "recently" was finished only by Kopylov when he was on his run in FNC. Smirnov finished 6 of his 12 fights but he can have trouble doing that to guy like Enomoto, right? My concern is that Enomoto is 38 now and fighters can age overnight in their late years.
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Yeah, that's the only reason I haven't pulled the trigger on Enomoto. He's definitely a live dog, but I have a lot of exposure this weekend with 11 plays on regional MMA cards lol. I might tape it a bit and see what I think of Smirnov, I don't remember much about him tbh.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Yeah, that's the only reason I haven't pulled the trigger on Enomoto. He's definitely a live dog, but I have a lot of exposure this weekend with 11 plays on regional MMA cards lol. I might tape it a bit and see what I think of Smirnov, I don't remember much about him tbh.
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Definitely post your opinion if you will decide to tape Smirnov. I wasn't impressed by him. Could you list your most confident picks on the regional scene for this weekend?
 
SherdogWasNeverMyFriend said:
Definitely post your opinion if you will decide to tape Smirnov. I wasn't impressed by him. Could you list your most confident picks on the regional scene for this weekend?
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I've played

Dmitriy Babkin at 1.95 over Ayk Kazarian. Babkin seems like quite the hot prospect and I wasn't especially impressed with Kazarian last time I saw him.

Carlos Lozoya at 2.62 over Eric Shelton. Lozoya recently finished Ricky Steele at BW now dropping to FLW. Shelton is kind of going through the motions at the moment imo, lost to a very green Ronderos not long ago.

Jacob Silva at 3.4 over Nate Smith - I don't really rate either of these guys that highly but Silva is a dog and a scrapper and there's quit in Smith. Not sure what justifies Smith being such a big favourite.

William Macario at 3.4 over Shimon Smotritsky - Macario is nothing special but he's one of those ex-UFC fighters who's still pretty young and has mixed it with lots of good guys. Shimon's only big test was Malott on DWCS and he got beaten very easily.

Leandro Limberger at 1.95 over Makhochi Sagitov - I think there's some Russian bias in the odds in this one. Limberger is a good fighter.

Pavel Gordeev at 2.10 over Mukhamed Kokov - Kokov is one dimensional, all grapple or bust with him and I think Gordeev has the defensive wrestling to be able to hold him off and get his strikes in.

Bartosz Lesko at 2.62 over Husein Kushagov - I don't think Husein is that great and Bartosz is a young fighter showing constant improvement.

Diego Brandao at 3.40 over Alexey Polpudnikov - Both inconsistent fighters who can throw fights away. Brandao is a fast starter and Alexey can take a while to get going, so the chances of Brandao taking him out early are worth those odds imo.

Phumi Nkuta at 1.28 over Jason Eatman - Phumi is a UFC standard fighter and I don't see anyone on the US flyweight scene giving him issues until he makes the UFC.

Andrey Koshkin at 2.62 over Ali Bagov - Bagov hasn't looked the same at WW as he did at LW, he's had a couple of gift decisions and absolutely sucks on his back, if Koshkin can get a TD in two rounds Ali won't get back up.

Magdalena Sormova at 1.44 over Anita Bekus - This is a borderline rankings quality UFC fighter against a low level one. This one is free money imo.
 
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