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There is likely more value on FGTD because bettors are going to see O'Neil has finished her last three opponents, but there is absolutely value on Modafferi at +300.
I think you are misguided on O'Neil lacking athleticism because from my vantage point that is her best trait. She does though appear to have below average power for a WFLW which is not conducive to long-term success when you also have non-existent striking defense.
Modafferi's lack of offense will be what holds her back more than anything in this type of fight because O'Neil is all offense even if there is not much behind it. You are right though to question how O'Neils MMA game will holdup against higher level competition.
Good points, yeah I think ONeil has impressive cardio and offensive pressure, but she just doesn't have that dynamic explosiveness that I think of when calling someone athletic and she doesn't seem very strong-she was getting handled by Procopio in the clinch.