General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 1, 2020.

  1. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Ryan Bader +140 against Corey Anderson? Screams value or have I got a bad memory for Bader here, he cant be that washed...?
     
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  2. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    I think he might be. As crazy as it sounds, I don't think this fight will hit the scorecards. Both are strong, powerful wrestlers with suspect chins.
     
  3. burge13 Purple Belt

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    Andersons chin has always been bad but hes now got that good striking. Maybe I need to watch recent fights, Bader i remember wins pretty clear. I never rated anderson super highly though
     
  4. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    Can anyone explain how Shields is -450 against Montes?

    Montes looks decent on tape, is very young, and is undefeated. Shields last fought a girl who was 3-6, and Shields looked absolutely terrible in that fight.
     
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  5. Broe. Brown Belt

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    thanks for this post. Montes really looks good on tape. I will take a flyer here, Shields is all name and hype of course.
     
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  6. Shelter Brown Belt

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    I don't know about that Montes play, she seemed pretty hittable in the Zamora fight. Her follow up win was against a debuting fighter who was somehow an even smaller WFW fighter than Montes is, total soccer mom squash match.

    Shields may not be great, but she's an athlete and is training out of an experienced camp. She's also 5'8 and cuts to 155 going up against a 5'4 opponent who has fought at 135, that size advantage is going to matter when they're both this inexperienced. Montes is only 21, and judging from the kickboxing vid available on her from 2018 it's not like she's coming into this from a grappling background. She was hand picked for a reason, don't bet against the future cash cow.
     
  7. Broe. Brown Belt

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    she is +350. there is enough doubt about Shields to make it worth a play imo. Last time out Shields almost lost to a 3-6 fighter lol.
     
  8. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Hasan Yousefi at +350 on the FNG card today seems off to me if anyone is interested.
     
  9. I really like Ribas next weekend against Virna.

    -140 seems like a gift.

    They both have bad standup and good BJJ. Virna on paper has the better BJJ, but doesn't have the takedowns to get it to the mat.

    Ribas should win the majority of striking exchanges en route to a decision.
     
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  10. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    Virna actually has solid takedowns. Her wrestling is solid for a BJJ fighter, was taking Espraza down and Martin who is a decent wrestler.
     
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  11. Captain Chesapeake Brown Belt

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    I like virna as a dog here. Haven’t bet it yet. Hoping casuals steam up ribas
     
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  12. svmr_db Brown Belt Platinum Member

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    The fight is a little fuzzy in my mind but I think Virna's standup looked good in her last fight vs Murata, very coin flip fight imo hard to be super confident in either side.
     
  13. I'll tape it more leading up to the fight. I don't remember her having good takedowns, but it may just be from her last 2 fights.

    Her last fight, wasn't she taken down and then broke Murata's arm at the end of round 1? And then round 2 was all stand up.

    Anyways, I bet her at -140 but I'm rather confident the line balloons up to -180 by next weekend, so if I see something on tape that I don't like, I can simply cash out.
     
  14. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    Yea last fight she got taken down by a wrestler, but her standup is greatly improved so she probably wanted to test it. No reason for her to try take Dern down. Reason she has so many subs is that she has good takedowns to get the fight to the ground. Im impressed with her wrestling
     
  15. Is it just me or is Marlon Vera at -165 extremely generous against 40yr old shopworn Frankie Edgar? Marlon Vera has such an immense physical advantage between his length and youth and he is surely technically good enough everywhere to beat down a 40 year old bantamweight.
     
  16. ExitLUPin K

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    Agreed and Chito is great off his back and good at getting back up. Frankie's TDs and setups aren't as fast or good as they used to be anyways. Chito also gets better as the fight goes on and is the much more dangerous, dynamic and better striker
     
  17. Its hard to even give Frankie a puncher's chance against someone as durable and tested as Vera.
     
  18. ExitLUPin K

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    Yeah and Frankie never truly had a punchers chance against anyone. The Mendes fight remains one of the most improbable outcomes for a high level fight/main event IMO. If they fought 100 times Frankie KOing Chad in the pocket in the 1st round prolly only happens that 1 time.
     
  19. Broe. Brown Belt

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    the leech at +360 vs Khamzat is absolutely nuts. I have never bet this much on such a big underdog before.
     
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  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    ???

    Line may be a BIT wide, but given how Magny was able to take Li down and just outgrapple him it's hard to not see Chimaev doing it too (but smashing his face in once he puts him on his back).
     
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