General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 1, 2020.

  1. ExitLUPin K

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    I was thinking about the lack of activity for Kerimov too but I'm not betting against him

    I like

    Vlasenko +160
    Silverio -125
    Froes -210
    Boca Bukuev U1.5 -120

    Yunusov +200 is intriguing too IMO despite Omarovs last performance. Omarov is a legit prospect but Yunusov is fucking good would be majorly impressed if he won and specially dominantly
     
  2. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Khusein is difficult to bet with, he tends to fight to the level of his opponent a bit. Vlasenko can certainly give him a test, but I wouldn't be surprised if Khusein adjusts to that level and just cruises to victory as he tends to do.

    Silverio I would favour, but he's been on the wrong end of bad decisions at least twice recently, so it seems the judges have it in for him. He tends to let fights be close.

    Froes I agree gets it done.

    Maycon and Bukuev are both aggressive so I think that makes sense.

    Yunusov is a tough dude, but I really do think highly of Omarov, that utter dominance of Bibert was tremendous and the only other guy to do that to Bibert was Timur Khizriev who's also tremendous.

    What are the odds like for Alexsandro Praia? Yunus is coming back from whatever health issues he had that forced him to relinquish the title, so who knows if he's fully recovered?
     
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  3. ExitLUPin K

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    Praia is +240 ATM. Betting on flyweight ACA fights can be frustrating tho I tend to keep away
     
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  4. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Yeah, that sounds about right. If Yunus is anything like he used to be then he likely dominates, but there's maybe a health question mark there if anyone wanted to take a chance on it.
     
  5. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Oh and as a side note can you wait until after the fights are up on YouTube to post any threads with ACA stuff in the title in the heavies as I can't watch it live and want to avoid spoilers. {<redford}
     
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  6. ExitLUPin K

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    Will do
     
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  7. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    Can't say I know most of the fighters well enough to have a real lean.

    Though Daniel Oliveira at +400 against Kerimov feels wide. Oliveira is one of the best guys in ACA, and Kerimov hasn't fought in two years.
     
  8. Gane/Francis official for January 11th.

    I actually lean Gane here pre tape.

    Francis has the power advantage, but what else? Gane has showed a phenomenal chin, good defense, better cardio than Francis, and good grappling. Better kickboxing as well, his body/leg kicks will pay dividends as the fight progresses.

    In the later rounds, I see Gane's improved grappling becoming a problem for a gassed Ngannou, if Gane decides to go that route. It'll probably be the path of least resistance for him.

    To play the devil's advocate to myself though, I think most of us base our, "Francis has shit cardio" analysis on the first Stipe fight, which was almost entirely grappling, and Francis was a lot more green in that department back then. And even Stipe, who has shown to have good cardio, was dead tired at the end of that fight.

    Anyways, I wish I hit Gane when he was +140. Now it's a pick'em at most places, the best line I can find on Gane is +100.

    This is the highest level heavyweight matchup we've had in a while though. I can see it going the distance, if the overs are juicy that's what I'll be playing.
     
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  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Chin won't matter if Frances lands clean but could factor in on a glancing shot. Ngannou has that special power that can put guys away even if he doesn't land flush, but I kind of agree Game could maybe take those type shots from Frances.

    Otherwise I guess I agree. Maybe Gane ML and Gane Dec or rds 4/5 with Frances rds 1-2 as the hedge?
     
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  10. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    I like Gane DEC straight up. Usually, I play it safe but I think Gane treats this fight more like Jarzinho and dosent open up as much as the BB and Volkov fight. Volkov was super gassed and he got a bit more aggressive late, but Ngannou has a granite chin and I dont think there will be much grappling involved. KO easy hedge
     
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  11. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Now obviously both guys have developed a lot since the last time they trained together, but I do wonder how those spars will affect both in terms of confidence. I mean, we've seen Francis put out a bad performance before due to a mental hangup, so it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for it to happen again if Cyril was besting him in training.

    That or he'll try to bullrush him out the gate like he did to Jair, which would be high-risk high-reward.
     
  12. Shelter Brown Belt

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    Ngannou looked so good in there against Miocic, I'd have a hard time betting against that version regardless of the opponent.
     
  13. Ridge12 White Belt

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    Ngannou said they were both at the same gym for two months early on and he didn't even really know Gane that well. Now, there's this narrative that they were/are close friends and former training partners, and that's simply not true.
     
  14. svmr_db Brown Belt Platinum Member

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    closer to pick em odds now

    2321.JPG
     
  15. Kamais_Ookin Yellow Card Yellow Card

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  16. ExitLUPin K

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    When has Gane showed a "phenomenal' chin? Rozenstruik didnt even land clean outside of leg kicks. Neither did Lewis who i dont think landed anything lol.

    Shot JDS landed a couple but he doesnt have the power he used too. Volkov landed some strikes but hes not a heavy puncher. Ganes chin is still untested TBH.

    Gane doesnt have good TDs either. He couldnt get Volkov, Lewis or Rozenstruik down or for any significant control time none of the 3 have good TDD and Volkov and Lewis have had horrific defensive wrestling for a while with some alltime bad performances in that front. Grappling isnt gonna be a factor IMO unless Francis is deathly tired which im not sure if itll even go that long
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2021
  17. He got hit pretty hard in his kickboxing career a few different times. 13 kickboxing bouts and didn't get dropped a single time. Hasn't been dropped or rocked in 9 MMA fights either.

    He's never been hit by a shot as hard as the ones that Francis landed on Overeem/Rozenstruik/Stipe. Will his chin hold up if he gets caught with a bomb from Francis? Can't say decisively yes or no.

    But what I can say is that his defense is phenomenal. He doesn't put himself in danger at all, and keeps opponents at bay with kicks/head movement/phenomenal octagon control.

    If Francis manages to catch him clean, I'd be incredibly surprised.

    One of my largest bets this year was Francis -130 vs Stipe(I missed the KO line early in the week @ +105, so I played his ML and left money on the table like a fucking idiot).

    I faded Gane against Rozenstruik and Volkov. After watching him beat Volkov with ease(and Volkov is an elite HW), I bet on him pretty big to win ITD versus Lewis.

    Gane is good man, this is going to be a great fight. I can't fault anyone taking Francis, but I think the most likely outcome is Gane DEC. I'm probably going to find a book that offers RDs 4/5/decision and play that heavy, but this event is months away and I need to evaluate way more tape and other factors leading up to the fight.
     
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  18. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If he gets hit with the shot that Frances landed on Overeem, Gane isn't surviving, c'mon LOL. That punch might have KO'd a fucking Water Buffalo FFS.

    The rest of your post is solid though. :D
     
  19. svmr_db Brown Belt Platinum Member

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  20. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Crazy line. I wish i would have been faster edwards is -250 now
     
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