For people who think Merab can beat Umar

[TheMMAnalyst]

Merab is just like Belal for most people, MMA fans wants them to lose so badly, they win just to piss everyone off.

I think Merab can outwork the fuck out of Umar, and sometimes it's the simple plans that work out the best. Merab reminds me a lot of Guida, and he's got a chin. Merab has been in the cage with Yan, Aldo, Cejudo and O'Malley versus Umar's lone big name in Sandhagen, so I would definitely give Merab the edge in experience and being in the big fight. I don't know why Merab getst he hate that he does. He seems like a pretty happy-go-lucky fella, and not going to lie... I love how happy and amped up he gets when he wins, dude gets so excited he can't get his words straight. Can't really help but feel happy for him too.

Umar is probably the better striker of the two, but ultimately Umar still only has 2 KO's to his name, so it's not as if he's blessed with Pereira's punching power.

The only elite grappler Merab fought is Cejudo, who dropped him and took him down and controlled him before gassing. Cejudo is smaller, less skilled (ant this stage) and far older than Umar and had plenty of success.

And it’s not Umar is “probably” a better striker, he is 100% a better striker, the improvements and speed he showed against Sandhagen were insanely impressive.

Merab has peaked but Umar is only getting better still, it’s going to be a real tough fight stylistically for Merab, literally has to set an insane pace and constantly go through the fire to break Umar’s spirit.

Compelling shit.

 

[Aurelian]

OP asked what others were seeing that he isn't seeing just so he can call them stupid when he still doesn't see what they see lol.

Spot on analysis.

 

[fortheo]

The only elite grappler Merab fought is Cejudo, who dropped him and took him down and controlled him before gassing. Cejudo is smaller, less skilled (ant this stage) and far older than Umar and had plenty of success.

And it’s not Umar is “probably” a better striker, he is 100% a better striker, the improvements and speed he showed against Sandhagen were insanely impressive.

Merab has peaked but Umar is only getting better still, it’s going to be a real tough fight stylistically for Merab, literally has to set an insane pace and constantly go through the fire to break Umar’s spirit.

Compelling shit.

Stots and Aldo are elite grapplers, too. Although aldo offensively grappled sparingly, he's obviously always been elite. I agree with the rest of your analysis, though.

I'll be interested to see how umar's striking holds up if merab can consistently get in his face and keep the level changes mixed In with hectic striking on the breaks as he often does. Umar's striking is best at long range -- in close, where merab likes to work, umar relies on wrestling, which might be cancelled out here.

 

[Tweak896]

I think Umar will destroy Merab everywhere. However there could be a scenario where Merab gets his pressure rhythm and somehow gets Umar on his back foot the whole fight. Maybe looks ugly like Merab/Aldo.

That's giving Merab the best night of his life and maybe Umar off. I don't think cardio is going to be enough to overwhelm to matter. If Umar counters the clinch and takes Merab down it's a wrap.

Perhaps another is Umar has poor game planning and takes off every other round and Merab can stall in clinch to edge out a close ugly decision.

I still think Merab has very few ways to win and Umar could basically beat Merab by almost every way except KO. Umar can win as aggressor or on backfoot much more comfortably than Merab. Even when Sandhagen was playing his game perfect, Umar was unbroken and his will eventually took over.

Anyone who says "tons of people are underrating Merab" then mysteriously providing no real reasons are playing contrarian for the sake of it.

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

I think Umar will destroy Merab everywhere. However there could be a scenario where Merab gets his pressure rhythm and somehow gets Umar on his back foot the whole fight. Maybe looks ugly like Merab/Aldo.

That's giving Merab the best night of his life and maybe Umar off. I don't think cardio is going to be enough to overwhelm to matter. If Umar counters the clinch and takes Merab down it's a wrap.

Perhaps another is Umar has poor game planning and takes off every other round and Merab can stall in clinch to edge out a close ugly decision.

I still think Merab has very few ways to win and Umar could basically beat Merab by almost every way except KO. Umar can win as aggressor or on backfoot much more comfortably than Merab. Even when Sandhagen was playing his game perfect, Umar was unbroken and his will eventually took over.

Anyone who says "tons of people are underrating Merab" then mysteriously providing no real reasons are playing contrarian for the sake of it.

"Anyone who says 'tons of people are underrating Merab' then mysteriously providing no real reasons are playing contrarian for the sake of it."

I have Merab slightly favored in the fight.

Here is my breakdown with 1-10 rankings. I've watched some of Umar's fights and a lot of Merab's fights. There isn't a lot of tape on Umar against high-level competition so it's hard for me to get a good read on him.

Wrestling:
Umar 9
Merab 10

Boxing:
Merab 7
Umar 6

Kicking:
Umar 9
Merab 5

Physical Strength:
Merab 9
Umar 7

Cardio:
Merab 9
Umar 8 (maybe 9) hard to tell due to lack of top competition.....Umar impressed me in round 5 against Cory. He was the fresher, stronger fighter in that round.

Intangibles: (very subjective)
Merab 7 (battle tested)
Umar 6

Umar is the young talented guy coming up against the veteran Merab. Merab has been in there with most of the top of the division. Umar is younger and his only top guy that he fought is Cory. Can Umar implement his kicking game or will Merab be able to counter wrestle when he tries? Who gets the better of the boxing? Who's cardio holds up in the later rounds? I think Merab's boxing is better than people think. Umar will be very prepared coming from the best team. I think Merab was smart to take this fight now. Umar would do better having a year more of experience with a couple of more fights against to competition. Merab would be one year older and probably at the beginning of his downslide.

I favor Merab slightly in this fight. There is a lot of questions with Umar that need to be answered. I expect it to be a very competitive fight with Merab getting a 48-47 or possibly 49-46 score.

 

[Paladin]

I believe that their grappling is close, the striking might be slightly in Umar’s favor, slightly.
The biggest strength in my opinion is Merab’s formidable cardio conditioning. His pace is incredibly hellacious, and if Umar is to take it, he will need to either maintain top control, or get a finish early. I think Umar is a good fighter but has a lot of hype based on his cousin’s accomplishments.

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

if you think Merab has zero chance bet your house on Umar.

 

[Tweak896]

"Anyone who says 'tons of people are underrating Merab' then mysteriously providing no real reasons are playing contrarian for the sake of it."

I have Merab slightly favored in the fight.

Here is my breakdown with 1-10 rankings. I've watched some of Umar's fights and a lot of Merab's fights. There isn't a lot of tape on Umar against high-level competition so it's hard for me to get a good read on him.

Wrestling:
Umar 9
Merab 10

Boxing:
Merab 7
Umar 6

Kicking:
Umar 9
Merab 5

Physical Strength:
Merab 9
Umar 7

Cardio:
Merab 9
Umar 8 (maybe 9) hard to tell due to lack of top competition.....Umar impressed me in round 5 against Cory. He was the fresher, stronger fighter in that round.

Intangibles: (very subjective)
Merab 7 (battle tested)
Umar 6

Umar is the young talented guy coming up against the veteran Merab. Merab has been in there with most of the top of the division. Umar is younger and his only top guy that he fought is Cory. Can Umar implement his kicking game or will Merab be able to counter wrestle when he tries? Who gets the better of the boxing? Who's cardio holds up in the later rounds? I think Merab's boxing is better than people think. Umar will be very prepared coming from the best team. I think Merab was smart to take this fight now. Umar would do better having a year more of experience with a couple of more fights against to competition. Merab would be one year older and probably at the beginning of his downslide.

I favor Merab slightly in this fight. There is a lot of questions with Umar that need to be answered. I expect it to be a very competitive fight with Merab getting a 48-47 or possibly 49-46 score.

I appreciate your detailed response defending Merab. Browsing the forum I just saw tons of empty picks for him without reasoning. I think the differences boil down to how you and I rank skills. For me, the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight. Back when Islam was getting a title shot, I vigorously defended him despite only beating Green and Hooker. So it's possible I'm biased from that.

I'll post my breakdown and maybe it'll clarify my perspective.

Wrestling: I'm biased towards Dagastani, until anyone shows superiority over their top guys, I automatically rate them highest in division. Merab probably out wrestles everyone else.
Umar 10
Merab 9

Boxing: I don't think either guy would be a great boxer without their grappling, but Umar basically decided to stand with Sandhagen and beat him. I have never seen Merab comfortable enough to really decide to strike without blending TDs/pressure.
Merab 3
Umar 7

Kicking: basically same as I wrote for boxing, Umar has better kicks than punches. I can't even remember an effective kick by Merab besides a distraction from his pressure.
Umar 9
Merab 2

Physical Strength: both guys are strong for the division, but Merab usually is a cardio machine that overwhelms, has been match by Stamann kind of. Umar has never struggled with anyone.
Merab 7
Umar 9

Cardio: I think Cardio is Merab's bread and butter, he can melt anyone that can melted. However Umar's teams conditioning is legendary and the way he passed the 5 round test with Sandhagen without a beat makes me think he's going to be much more unbreakable than Yan or Also were.
Merab 10
Umar 9

Intangibles: I think there's a whole aura of invincibility from the Dagastani gym, any top guy from Khabib's team basically is unbeaten, besides the fluke Islam KO loss. Merab's unlimited cardio is pretty scary to most, the way he beat Yan, but he's had plenty of moments in fights where he lost control and looked clueless.
Merab 7
Umar 9

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

Merab reminds me of DDP. many people kept saying he sucks, every fight he's suppose to lose to the superior fighter and every fight he just kept winning.

i think some people are underestimating how powerful having good cardio is. if Merab makes the grappling competitive, and stays on him on the feet, not giving him respect, he's going to wear on Umar. the more tired he gets the shittier he'll get.

 

[Conan the K-9]

After I have seen how Merab dealt with and almost nullified strikers like Yan, Aldo and ok O’Malley too, I find it quite childish to think that he would not have success with other dangerous strikers.
Merab completely toyed with Henry’s Olympic level wrestling and has had one of the UFCs best BJJ backpackers as a training partner for years.
One could confidently say that Merabs sambo is better than his next opponents.

What else do you need to think that the fight will absolutely be competitive and Merab has all the tools to retain his belt?

The more interesting though is that, how team tiramisu will deal that evening, with their emotions, if their boy loses in the co-main and they still have a really competitive fight in the main event that they might lose as well if things don’t go perfectly right.

 

[JustBleed69]

Umar has one good win, Merab has like 10

 

[Doctor Grudge]

I appreciate your detailed response defending Merab. Browsing the forum I just saw tons of empty picks for him without reasoning. I think the differences boil down to how you and I rank skills. For me, the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight. Back when Islam was getting a title shot, I vigorously defended him despite only beating Green and Hooker. So it's possible I'm biased from that.

I'll post my breakdown and maybe it'll clarify my perspective.

Wrestling: I'm biased towards Dagastani, until anyone shows superiority over their top guys, I automatically rate them highest in division. Merab probably out wrestles everyone else.
Umar 10
Merab 9

Boxing: I don't think either guy would be a great boxer without their grappling, but Umar basically decided to stand with Sandhagen and beat him. I have never seen Merab comfortable enough to really decide to strike without blending TDs/pressure.
Merab 3
Umar 7

Kicking: basically same as I wrote for boxing, Umar has better kicks than punches. I can't even remember an effective kick by Merab besides a distraction from his pressure.
Umar 9
Merab 2

Physical Strength: both guys are strong for the division, but Merab usually is a cardio machine that overwhelms, has been match by Stamann kind of. Umar has never struggled with anyone.
Merab 7
Umar 9

Cardio: I think Cardio is Merab's bread and butter, he can melt anyone that can melted. However Umar's teams conditioning is legendary and the way he passed the 5 round test with Sandhagen without a beat makes me think he's going to be much more unbreakable than Yan or Also were.
Merab 10
Umar 9

Intangibles: I think there's a whole aura of invincibility from the Dagastani gym, any top guy from Khabib's team basically is unbeaten, besides the fluke Islam KO loss. Merab's unlimited cardio is pretty scary to most, the way he beat Yan, but he's had plenty of moments in fights where he lost control and looked clueless.
Merab 7
Umar 9

How is Umar a better wrestler than someone who literally became champion just from wrestling?

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

I appreciate your detailed response defending Merab. Browsing the forum I just saw tons of empty picks for him without reasoning. I think the differences boil down to how you and I rank skills. For me, the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight. Back when Islam was getting a title shot, I vigorously defended him despite only beating Green and Hooker. So it's possible I'm biased from that.

I'll post my breakdown and maybe it'll clarify my perspective.

Wrestling: I'm biased towards Dagastani, until anyone shows superiority over their top guys, I automatically rate them highest in division. Merab probably out wrestles everyone else.
Umar 10
Merab 9

Boxing: I don't think either guy would be a great boxer without their grappling, but Umar basically decided to stand with Sandhagen and beat him. I have never seen Merab comfortable enough to really decide to strike without blending TDs/pressure.
Merab 3
Umar 7

Kicking: basically same as I wrote for boxing, Umar has better kicks than punches. I can't even remember an effective kick by Merab besides a distraction from his pressure.
Umar 9
Merab 2

Physical Strength: both guys are strong for the division, but Merab usually is a cardio machine that overwhelms, has been match by Stamann kind of. Umar has never struggled with anyone.
Merab 7
Umar 9

Cardio: I think Cardio is Merab's bread and butter, he can melt anyone that can melted. However Umar's teams conditioning is legendary and the way he passed the 5 round test with Sandhagen without a beat makes me think he's going to be much more unbreakable than Yan or Also were.
Merab 10
Umar 9

Intangibles: I think there's a whole aura of invincibility from the Dagastani gym, any top guy from Khabib's team basically is unbeaten, besides the fluke Islam KO loss. Merab's unlimited cardio is pretty scary to most, the way he beat Yan, but he's had plenty of moments in fights where he lost control and looked clueless.
Merab 7
Umar 9

I felt the same way about Islam. I remember Chandler saying he didn't deserve the title shot and then that it was crazy that Islam was favored over Charles. I thought both of those things were correct. I was making fun of Chandler at the time for not knowing what he was talking about.

"For me the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight."
Agreed.

The breakdown for me was showing telling the story that I think Merab is the better wrestler (slightly). I expect him to be able to use that to win the fight. I think Merab's boxing (MMA boxing) is underrated and he's also physically very strong. Umar is a very deserving challenger. It's hard for me to get a read on him because the level of competition has been low besides Cory. It's possible I've underestimated him and he comes in here and steamrolls Merab. If he neutralizes Merab's grappling and can establish his kicking game, he will win. I think his boxing is overrated but his kicking game is his strength. I watched round 5 of O'Malley/Merab. O'Malley had success kicking to the body of Merab. Was that because Merab was just running that round (stalling) because he was way ahead or did O'Malley find a real weakness there? I expect Umar to test that early.

Summary:
Umar is a worthy challenger who poses a real problem for Merab. He's got a diverse striking game with an emphasis on kicking. He's also a very good grappler. The questions for me are Umar's chin, who is the physically stronger fighter and who is the better grappler. Whoever can implement their game will win. I'm expecting Merab to be able to win the grappling exchanges, so I pick Merab to win the fight.

If you are right about the physical strength and wrestling then Umar will 50-45 or 49-46 Merab. Who is the better wrestler and who is stronger will be very important in this fight in my opinion.

 

[mkess101]

I felt the same way about Islam. I remember Chandler saying he didn't deserve the title shot and then that it was crazy that Islam was favored over Charles. I thought both of those things were correct. I was making fun of Chandler at the time for not knowing what he was talking about.

"For me the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight."
Agreed.

The breakdown for me was showing telling the story that I think Merab is the better wrestler (slightly). I expect him to be able to use that to win the fight. I think Merab's boxing (MMA boxing) is underrated and he's also physically very strong. Umar is a very deserving challenger. It's hard for me to get a read on him because the level of competition has been low besides Cory. It's possible I've underestimated him and he comes in here and steamrolls Merab. If he neutralizes Merab's grappling and can establish his kicking game, he will win. I think his boxing is overrated but his kicking game is his strength. I watched round 5 of O'Malley/Merab. O'Malley had success kicking to the body of Merab. Was that because Merab was just running that round (stalling) because he was way ahead or did O'Malley find a real weakness there? I expect Umar to test that early.

Summary:
Umar is a worthy challenger who poses a real problem for Merab. He's got a diverse striking game with an emphasis on kicking. He's also a very good grappler. The questions for me are Umar's chin, who is the physically stronger fighter and who is the better grappler. Whoever can implement their game will win. I'm expecting Merab to be able to win the grappling exchanges, so I pick Merab to win the fight.

If you are right about the physical strength and wrestling then Umar will 50-45 or 49-46 Merab. Who is the better wrestler and who is stronger will be very important in this fight in my opinion.

No offense, but you rated Merab's cardio a 9. That makes me think (maybe wrongly, but I'm just being honest) that you maybe don't know what you're talking about.

If he's a 9, who the hell is a 10??? In my 25 years of following the sport (which includes seeing a lot of regional guys way back when I trained/fought/coached, in addition of course to following the best guys in the top orgs) I've not seen ONE GUY with better cardio than Merab. Not one. He's not a 9, he's an 11.

Merab shot FORTY NINE takedown attempts vs Yan. Converted 11. Any idea how exhausting it is getting stuffed on TD's? There's a reason you see grapplers abandon grappling in fights where they are overmatched striking. It's because you can't keep that constant pressure and level changing going without tiring and slowing down. Unless you're Merab. Failed TD's for him, unlike almost anyone else, aren't "failures". They're simply part of his gameplan. Because know what's not happening when you're making an opponent defend TD's nonstop? Any offense from them. And then their frustration sets in. And they become slower to punch off the break or try to capitalize on any space they do get. And Merab just keeps up the activity. It never stops.

Maybe Umar is good enough to solve that puzzle. He seems to have all the tools. His cardio looked good vs Sandhagen over 5 rounds (although he took some minutes off). And that fight was more competitive than a lot of people think (Umar def won, but Corey was right in it and had plenty of moments of his own).

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Stots and Aldo are elite grapplers, too. Although aldo offensively grappled sparingly, he's obviously always been elite. I agree with the rest of your analysis, though.

I'll be interested to see how umar's striking holds up if merab can consistently get in his face and keep the level changes mixed In with hectic striking on the breaks as he often does. Umar's striking is best at long range -- in close, where merab likes to work, umar relies on wrestling, which might be cancelled out here.

When has Aldo showcased elite grappling? He’ll occasionally get a back take and stall out a round like vs Chito, but his wrestling and offensive BJJ are not elite. Defensively he is elite at TDD and counter-grappling.

Stots is good but I wouldn’t consider him in the Tier 1 “best of best” level and that fight happened a decade ago when he was way worse, there was no grappling he got KO’d almost immediately.

The clinch is definitely the most interesting phase of the fight, will likely dictate who controls the pace and positions.

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

No offense, but you rated Merab's cardio a 9. That makes me think (maybe wrongly, but I'm just being honest) that you maybe don't know what you're talking about.

If he's a 9, who the hell is a 10??? In my 25 years of following the sport (which includes seeing a lot of regional guys way back when I trained/fought/coached, in addition of course to following the best guys in the top orgs) I've not seen ONE GUY with better cardio than Merab. Not one. He's not a 9, he's an 11.

Merab shot FORTY NINE takedown attempts vs Yan. Converted 11. Any idea how exhausting it is getting stuffed on TD's? There's a reason you see grapplers abandon grappling in fights where they are overmatched striking. It's because you can't keep that constant pressure and level changing going without tiring and slowing down. Unless you're Merab. Failed TD's for him, unlike almost anyone else, aren't "failures". They're simply part of his gameplan. Because know what's not happening when you're making an opponent defend TD's nonstop? Any offense from them. And then their frustration sets in. And they become slower to punch off the break or try to capitalize on any space they do get. And Merab just keeps up the activity. It never stops.

Maybe Umar is good enough to solve that puzzle. He seems to have all the tools. His cardio looked good vs Sandhagen over 5 rounds (although he took some minutes off). And that fight was more competitive than a lot of people think (Umar def won, but Corey was right in it and had plenty of moments of his own).

I don't have a problem with Merab having a 10 for cardio. I think it's his strength along with wrestling. I think 11 might be a little too much.

 

[mkess101]

I don't have a problem with Merab having a 10 for cardio. I think it's his strength along with wrestling. I think 11 might be a little too much.

Who have you EVER seen in MMA with better cardio? Or even that's shown cardio equal to him? 49 takedown attempts is otherworldly cardio. "Good" or even "great" doesn't describe it.

Oddly, his wrestling isn't as good as you're saying though. It's good, but he's not as technically sound as some other guys. And it's not necessarily because he's not capable, but it's more what I said before--he doesn't mind shooting and getting stuffed. He will level change and cage push not to try to complete a TD but sometimes just to stymie his opponent's offense. But he's not Khabib or Islam or GSP with his wrestling.

 

[Tweak896]

How is Umar a better wrestler than someone who literally became champion just from wrestling?

It's my guess he is. Merab has had more moments of being controlled than Umar has. I could be wrong, but I think if the majority disagreed then Merab would be a heavy favorite.

 

[Tweak896]

I felt the same way about Islam. I remember Chandler saying he didn't deserve the title shot and then that it was crazy that Islam was favored over Charles. I thought both of those things were correct. I was making fun of Chandler at the time for not knowing what he was talking about.

"For me the resume doesn't matter as much as implementing their skills in a fight."
Agreed.

The breakdown for me was showing telling the story that I think Merab is the better wrestler (slightly). I expect him to be able to use that to win the fight. I think Merab's boxing (MMA boxing) is underrated and he's also physically very strong. Umar is a very deserving challenger. It's hard for me to get a read on him because the level of competition has been low besides Cory. It's possible I've underestimated him and he comes in here and steamrolls Merab. If he neutralizes Merab's grappling and can establish his kicking game, he will win. I think his boxing is overrated but his kicking game is his strength. I watched round 5 of O'Malley/Merab. O'Malley had success kicking to the body of Merab. Was that because Merab was just running that round (stalling) because he was way ahead or did O'Malley find a real weakness there? I expect Umar to test that early.

Summary:
Umar is a worthy challenger who poses a real problem for Merab. He's got a diverse striking game with an emphasis on kicking. He's also a very good grappler. The questions for me are Umar's chin, who is the physically stronger fighter and who is the better grappler. Whoever can implement their game will win. I'm expecting Merab to be able to win the grappling exchanges, so I pick Merab to win the fight.

If you are right about the physical strength and wrestling then Umar will 50-45 or 49-46 Merab. Who is the better wrestler and who is stronger will be very important in this fight in my opinion.

I'm excited for the fight. Besides Merab, there's no one like Aljo there in the division anymore. Merab melts so many fighters in the division so I bet if Umar had to retire Merab could be a long reigning champ, Umar is a difficult 1st title defense. Sean was lucky to get Vera for his 1st defense. Whoever takes this fight will run the division for awhile.

 

[markys00]

I don't see how Merab can win. Names all the ways Merab can win