Law Coronavirus the US GOV'T Response analysis Thread

[genecop]

They certainly will hold him accountable for his contribution to building an illusory booming economy that was little more than a bubble funded by unrealistically cheap capital, however. He’s gotta hope the Fed and Treasury can prop it up for a while longer.

LOL you just described the foundation for any booming economy that we experienced during the last 100 years..

 

[chardog]

H1N1, Ebola, West Nile, Zika, SARS... Why nothing resembling the current reaction to COVID-19 with any of these prior epidemics if the panic is just a product of Big Pharma wanting to make a buck?

There are a few things we need to separate here
Reaction

vs

Facts

they are not the same thing.

I'm not mentioning EBOLA, West nile, zika.

I'm comparing apples to apples. H1N1 was our last official pandemic.

Adding some context:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-pandemic-analysis-idUSTRE53T35Y20090430

H1N1 expected to kill millions, based on faulty "Fatality Rate"

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091103/h1n1-swine-flu-deadly-in-all-age-groups#1

Nov. 3, 2009 - H1N1 swine flu isn't always severe, but when it's bad, it's really bad. Patients hospitalized with pandemic flu have an 11% fatality rate, data from California suggest.

The pandemic flu bug is far more likely to strike younger people. But when people aged 50 and older get hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu, their case-fatality rate is the highest of any group: 18% to 20%.

-----------------

H1N1, later deemed a fake pandemic
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...scare-swine-flu-claims-Euro-health-chief.html

H1N1 scare was started on the exact same premise, high fatality rates, which has been debunked, and calls out WHO specifically.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

I'll tag so I dont have to repeat myself
@Libero cane v2

Without high fatality counts or rates, the virus has no legs

The "Experts Say" argument is simply an appeal to authority.

Experts are completely wrong on the fatality rate, and virtually unchallenged.

 

[genecop]

There are a few things we need to separate here
Reaction

vs

Facts

they are not the same thing.

I'm not mentioning EBOLA, West nile, zika.

I'm comparing apples to apples. H1N1 was our last official pandemic.

Adding some context:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-
report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-pandemic-analysis-
idUSTRE53T35Y20090430

H1N1 expected to kill millions, based on faulty "Fatality Rate"

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091103/h1n1-swine-flu-deadly-in-all-age-groups#1

Nov. 3, 2009 - H1N1 swine flu isn't always severe, but when it's bad, it's really bad. Patients hospitalized with pandemic flu have an 11% fatality rate, data from California suggest.

The pandemic flu bug is far more likely to strike younger people. But when people aged 50 and older get hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu, their case-fatality rate is the highest of any group: 18% to 20%.

-----------------

H1N1, later deemed a fake pandemic
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...scare-swine-flu-claims-Euro-health-chief.html

H1N1 scare was started on the exact same premise, high fatality rates, which has been debunked, and calls out WHO specifically.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

I'll tag so I dont have to repeat myself
@Libero cane v2

Without high fatality counts or rates, the virus has no legs

The "Experts Say" argument is simply an appeal to authority.

Experts are completely wrong on the fatality rate, and virtually unchallenged.

Stop confusing this thread with facts..The fear mongers don’t like that.

 

[Damien Karras]

There are a few things we need to separate here
Reaction

vs

Facts

they are not the same thing.

I'm not mentioning EBOLA, West nile, zika.

I'm comparing apples to apples. H1N1 was our last official pandemic.

Adding some context:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-pandemic-analysis-idUSTRE53T35Y20090430

H1N1 expected to kill millions, based on faulty "Fatality Rate"

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091103/h1n1-swine-flu-deadly-in-all-age-groups#1

Nov. 3, 2009 - H1N1 swine flu isn't always severe, but when it's bad, it's really bad. Patients hospitalized with pandemic flu have an 11% fatality rate, data from California suggest.

The pandemic flu bug is far more likely to strike younger people. But when people aged 50 and older get hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu, their case-fatality rate is the highest of any group: 18% to 20%.

-----------------

H1N1, later deemed a fake pandemic
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...scare-swine-flu-claims-Euro-health-chief.html

H1N1 scare was started on the exact same premise, high fatality rates, which has been debunked, and calls out WHO specifically.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

I'll tag so I dont have to repeat myself
@Libero cane v2

Without high fatality counts or rates, the virus has no legs

The "Experts Say" argument is simply an appeal to authority.

Experts are completely wrong on the fatality rate, and virtually unchallenged.

experts are wrong but you're right?

 

[chardog]

Stop confusing this thread with facts..The fear mongers don’t like that.

I was suggested to be banned for posting facts and evidence, apparently to leftists, that's considered trolling these days.

 

[genecop]

I was suggested to be banned for posting facts and evidence, apparently to leftists, that's considered trolling these days.

Here is another piece they should enjoy

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[613MMAfan]

No, I don't. The hysteria has been absurd. It's been used a political weapon by the media.

The fear is the only reason why this virus has been contained in the West, if it does indeed stay that way. If it were up to all of the idiot conservative types on my facebook talking about how this is no big deal and you should live your life like normal and go on any trips you had planned then this would have gotten bad.

 

[chardog]

experts are wrong but you're right?

they've been wrong about the case fatality rate plenty of times, it's a flawed methodology that was pointed out by other experts

take you're pick, current case fatality death rate for America sitting at 56%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

you think that's accurate?

 

[KeepItRealist]

The fear is the only reason why this virus has been contained in the West, if it does indeed stay that way. If it were up to all of the idiot conservative types on my facebook talking about how this is no big deal and you should live your life like normal and go on any trips you had planned then this would have gotten bad.

So you think the open borders type of politician would manage the situation better?

 

[ultramanhyata]

There are a few things we need to separate here
Reaction

vs

Facts

they are not the same thing.

I'm not mentioning EBOLA, West nile, zika.

I'm comparing apples to apples. H1N1 was our last official pandemic.

Adding some context:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-pandemic-analysis-idUSTRE53T35Y20090430

H1N1 expected to kill millions, based on faulty "Fatality Rate"

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20091103/h1n1-swine-flu-deadly-in-all-age-groups#1

Nov. 3, 2009 - H1N1 swine flu isn't always severe, but when it's bad, it's really bad. Patients hospitalized with pandemic flu have an 11% fatality rate, data from California suggest.

The pandemic flu bug is far more likely to strike younger people. But when people aged 50 and older get hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu, their case-fatality rate is the highest of any group: 18% to 20%.

-----------------

H1N1, later deemed a fake pandemic
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...scare-swine-flu-claims-Euro-health-chief.html

H1N1 scare was started on the exact same premise, high fatality rates, which has been debunked, and calls out WHO specifically.

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

I'll tag so I dont have to repeat myself
@Libero cane v2

Without high fatality counts or rates, the virus has no legs

The "Experts Say" argument is simply an appeal to authority.

Experts are completely wrong on the fatality rate, and virtually unchallenged.

I don't recall a single significant effect the H1N1 "panic" had on travel or schools or public events much less the stock market. Why?

 

[613MMAfan]

So you think the open borders type of politician would manage the situation better?

I'm saying I think he definitely could have managed the situation better by having a smart response that stressed people being smart and taking appropriate precautions, instead of " I just have a hunch that this is no worse than the flu."

Or how about the fact that he said anyone can get tested if they want to, which is completely false?

 

[Renard]

they've been wrong about the case fatality rate plenty of times, it's a flawed methodology that was pointed out by other experts

take you're pick, current case fatality death rate for America sitting at 56%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

you think that's accurate?

Case fatality rate in the US is irrelevant; small sample size of people who were tested because they had obvious symptoms and thus more likely to die.

The overall case fatality worldwide is 3.4%. Testing is focused on severe cases. Extrapolating from the number of mild cases who are left undetected, experts are saying fatality might be ~1%.

 

[HereticBD]

And Trump proposed a budget that cut the CDC budget even after the travel ban with China.

You made a point that the travel ban was too late. Now that you've learned it was proactive in the face of the WHO recommendation, you pivot away like the coward you are, as if you weren't just caught being a fucking idiot.

In case you were wondering, you are the perfect embodiment of why Liberal complaints about Trump fall on deaf ears.

 

[James Bomb]

Case fatality rate in the US is irrelevant; small sample size of people who were tested because they had obvious symptoms and thus more likely to die.

The overall case fatality worldwide is 3.4%. Testing is focused on severe cases. Extrapolating from the number of mild cases who are left undetected, experts are saying fatality might be ~1%.

Also, the virus went through a nursing home in WA, which is not exactly a representative sample of the general population.

It's does seem to be much more deadly than seasonal flu for certain segments of the population based on age and pre-existing conditions. The death rate will probably decrease once more effective treatments and vaccines are developed, but pandemics can easily overwhelm the public health infrastructure, which is why experts and most intelligent people are taking this seriously.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

LOL you just described the foundation for any booming economy that we experienced during the last 100 years..

Not really, Gene. Much of what we’ve seen has been very unusual. Take, for example, the persistent and public pressure on the Federal Reserve. We no longer have an independent Fed.

 

[James Bomb]

So you think the open borders type of politician would manage the situation better?

It doesn't seem possible for any sort of "leader" to have a worse response than Trump has, so far.

 

[chardog]

I don't recall a single significant effect the H1N1 "panic" had on travel or schools or public events much less the stock market. Why?

Again
Reaction to the virus != the actual virus

There's some travel bans in place, people have overracted across the world, closing schools and events. That's why the stock market is crashing.

again, this has nothing to do with the severity of the virus itself

The virus does not care about stock markets

there are some behavioral traits of this virus that are not being discussed enough.

1. Recovery, we're over 70K at this point

2. Mild cases are the vast majority, in america, 99% of new cases are mild

3. Under reporting, lack of test data. Contrary to what people think, more testing has only driven down the fatality rate to laughable numbers, see germany and south korea.

the most solid and reliable number we have are deaths, because there's the highest certainty of people on their death beds being tested or diagnosed.

tested, but in mild condition. In the worst case scenario, china, 80% of cases reported were mild. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-who-coronavirus-mild-cases-12410438

this means that under reported cases WILL be high, similar to H1N1. The testing of H1N1 compared to later estimates showed a 600x increase in estimated infected rate when corrected for under reporting, driving down fatality rate to inconsequential numbers.

again, when high cases are being reported as "Mild", you've got a massive amount of under reporting, like the common cold. More often than not, you take OTC's and report to nobody, hence the CDC doing estimates to account for under reporting.

This is a mathematical problem when comparing estimated fatality rates vs a case-fatality rate used by WHO. The comparison is apples to oranges.

 

[chardog]

Case fatality rate in the US is irrelevant; small sample size of people who were tested because they had obvious symptoms and thus more likely to die.

The overall case fatality worldwide is 3.4%. Testing is focused on severe cases. Extrapolating from the number of mild cases who are left undetected, experts are saying fatality might be ~1%.

it's going to be a while before people get estimates for under reporting. if 80% of the chinese were reporting "Mild" cases, I'm under the assumption that the vast majority of cases by a large factor are being under reported.

 

[Rational Poster]

You made a point that the travel ban was too late. Now that you've learned it was proactive in the face of the WHO recommendation, you pivot away like the coward you are, as if you weren't just caught being a fucking idiot.

In case you were wondering, you are the perfect embodiment of why Liberal complaints about Trump fall on deaf ears.

My criticism, from the start, was about the continuous cuts to the CDC and other public health services, even disaster response related public health services, as recently as February.

Other people, were trying to "but the travel ban", not me. It wasn't me pivoting, kiddo.

The uncomfortable truth is that the Trump administration has been cutting funding to these programs since the first year and continued to do so even after the first travel ban was in place.

 

[ultramanhyata]

Again
Reaction to the virus != the actual virus

There's some travel bans in place, people have overracted across the world, closing schools and events. That's why the stock market is crashing.

again, this has nothing to do with the severity of the virus itself

The virus does not care about stock markets

there are some behavioral traits of this virus that are not being discussed enough.

1. Recovery, we're over 70K at this point

2. Mild cases are the vast majority, in america, 99% of new cases are mild

3. Under reporting, lack of test data. Contrary to what people think, more testing has only driven down the fatality rate to laughable numbers, see germany and south korea.

the most solid and reliable number we have are deaths, because there's the highest certainty of people on their death beds being tested or diagnosed.

tested, but in mild condition. In the worst case scenario, china, 80% of cases reported were mild. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-who-coronavirus-mild-cases-12410438

this means that under reported cases WILL be high, similar to H1N1. The testing of H1N1 compared to later estimates showed a 600x increase in estimated infected rate when corrected for under reporting, driving down fatality rate to inconsequential numbers.

again, when high cases are being reported as "Mild", you've got a massive amount of under reporting, like the common cold. More often than not, you take OTC's and report to nobody, hence the CDC doing estimates to account for under reporting.

This is a mathematical problem when comparing estimated fatality rates vs a case-fatality rate used by WHO. The comparison is apples to oranges.

Why are you dodging a simple question?

If this COVID-19 panic is a product of Big Pharma propaganda and not of the risks posed by the disease itself why wasn't H1N1 exploited by BP in the same way? Why didn't H1N1 produce the same national responses?